Elche vs Mallorca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero Sat, 21 Mar - 1:00 PM
La Liga
Elche ELC
2 Winner 1
Mallorca MLL
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Rafa Mir - 62'
Tete Morente - 71'
Goal
|
Goal
Pablo Torre - 58'

CONTEXT

The match between Elche and Mallorca is officially finished, with Elche claiming a narrow 2-1 victory at full-time. After a closely fought first half that ended completely level at 0-0, the home side found their attacking breakthrough in the second period to secure the win. Pre-match market expectations favored the hosts, giving Elche a 45.7% probability of victory, while a draw sat at 28.1% and a Mallorca win at 26.2%. The final result aligned perfectly with these pre-match market projections. Additionally, Elche produced a significant deviation level of 54.3% in their overall performance metrics compared to baseline expectations. While Mallorca enjoyed the slight majority of the ball with 53% possession to Elche's 47%, the hosts created the better underlying scoring opportunities. Elche generated 1.65 expected goals (xG) compared to Mallorca's 1.51 xG, meaning the 2-1 outcome was entirely consistent with the expected goals differential. Overall goalscoring efficiency remained strictly in line with pre-game modeling for both clubs. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards issued to either side, resulting in a clean and statistically logical victory for the home team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Elche showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Elche E. Sarabia Armesto
E. Sarabia Armesto
VS
Mallorca M. Demichelis
M. Demichelis
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 79 L
Osasuna Rank: 79 D
Real Sociedad Rank: 82 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Levante Rank: 73 L
Sevilla Rank: 74 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad Rank: 82 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Sevilla Rank: 74 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 90 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Elche
45.66%
Draw
28.14%
Away Mallorca
26.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.75
74.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Elche
Mallorca
Power Score
61.75
74.5
League Position
17
18
Global Rank
138
114

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Elche — Opponent-weighted form score
Mallorca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Elche Mallorca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Elche

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mallorca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Elche ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mallorca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.02
26.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.42
32.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Elche +0.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Mallorca -0.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Elche
Mallorca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Elche
vs
Mallorca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Elche Mallorca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Elche Mallorca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Elche
Mallorca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Elche ELC Home
11 matches
Mallorca MLL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
5
Draws
5
3
Losses
3
Goals
13
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
13
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Dituro
Argentina
1 M. Dituro
D. Affengruber
Austria
22 D. Affengruber
V. Chust García
Spain
23 V. Chust García
P. Bigas Rigo
Spain
6 (C) P. Bigas Rigo
J. Morente Oliva
Spain
15 J. Morente Oliva
G. Diangana
Substitution
England
19 G. Diangana
M. Aguado Pallares
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Aguado Pallares
A. Febas Pérez
Spain
14 A. Febas Pérez
G. Karabinaite
Substitution
Spain
11 G. Karabinaite
R. Mir Vicente
Substitution
Spain
10 R. Mir Vicente
?. Rodríguez Muñoz
Substitution
Uruguay
20 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
L. Román Riquelme
Spain
1 L. Román Riquelme
A. Latorre Grueso
Spain
3 A. Latorre Grueso
M. Valjent
Slovakia
24 M. Valjent
A. Raillo Arenas
Spain
21 (C) A. Raillo Arenas
A. Sánchez Navarro
Substitution
Spain
6 A. Sánchez Navarro
O. Mascarell González
Spain
5 O. Mascarell González
S. Costa
Portugal
12 S. Costa
M. Joseph Fernández Regatillo
England
18 M. Joseph Fernández Regatillo
P. Torre Carral
Substitution
Spain
20 P. Torre Carral
Z. Sebastiao Luvumbo
Substitution
Angola
15 Z. Sebastiao Luvumbo
V. Muriqi
Kosovo
7 V. Muriqi

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Capacity
31388
Attendance
25462
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Javier Alberola Rojas
Juan Antonio Manrique Antequera
Alfredo Rodríguez Moreno
Jorge Bueno Mateo

Statistics

Possession
ELC
49%
MLL
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
13 Shots 11
41 Dangerous attacks 60
47 Possession 53
2 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
5 Goal Kicks 11
5 Substitutions 3
17 Dribble Attempts 26
51 Ball Safe 43
19 Successful Headers 20
19 Throwins 17
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
8 Goal Attempts 5
8 Successful Dribbles 12
1 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

91 Attacks 98
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

278 Successful Passes 318
9 Key Passes 7
351 Passes 393
79 Successful Passes Percentage 81
58 Long Passes 41
26 Successful Long Passes 15
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

5 Interceptions 7
3 Saves 2
30 Tackles 17

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 24
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Javier Alberola Rojas

Starting XI ▼

1
Matías Dituro
Matías Dituro Goalkeeper
7.34
6
Pedro Bigas
Pedro Bigas (C) Defender
6.28
22
David Affengruber
David Affengruber Defender
7.22
23
Víctor Chust
Víctor Chust Defender
7.08
8
Marc Aguado
Marc Aguado Midfielder
6.7
5
Federico Redondo
Federico Redondo
Midfielder79'
6.79
11
Germán Valera
Germán Valera Midfielder
7.73
3
Adrià Pedrosa
Adrià Pedrosa
Defender90+5'
14
Aleix Febas
Aleix Febas Midfielder
7.3
15
Tete Morente
Tete Morente Midfielder
7.62
19
Grady Diangana
Grady Diangana Midfielder
6.38
12
Gonzalo Villar
Gonzalo Villar
Midfielder64'
6.36
10
Rafa Mir
Rafa Mir Attacker
7.32
42
Buba Sangaré
Buba Sangaré
Defender80'
6.55
20
Álvaro Rodríguez
Álvaro Rodríguez Attacker
6.37
21
Léo Pétrot
Léo Pétrot
Defender90+5'
6.52
Referee : Javier Alberola Rojas

Starting XI ▼

1
Leo Román
Leo Román Goalkeeper
6.31
3
Toni Lato
Toni Lato Defender
6.43
6
Antonio Sánchez
Antonio Sánchez Defender
6.25
30
Justin Kalumba
Justin Kalumba
Attacker88'
21
Antonio Raíllo
Antonio Raíllo (C) Defender
7.03
24
Martin Valjent
Martin Valjent Defender
6.69
5
Omar Mascarell
Omar Mascarell Midfielder
5.93
12
Samú Costa
Samú Costa Midfielder
6.88
15
Zito Luvumbo
Zito Luvumbo Midfielder
7.25
8
Manu Morlanes
Manu Morlanes
Midfielder65'
6.62
18
Mateo Joseph
Mateo Joseph Midfielder
6.12
20
Pablo Torre
Pablo Torre Midfielder
7.25
10
Sergi Darder
Sergi Darder
Midfielder65'
6.47
7
Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi Attacker
5.76

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Léo Pétrot
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Adrià Pedrosa → Germán Valera
7th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Léo Pétrot → Álvaro Rodríguez
8th Substitution
90+5'
90+5'
Event
Pablo Maffeo
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Antonio Raíllo
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Vedat Muriqi
OffTarget
90'
Event
Samú Costa
Penalty awarded
88'
Event
Justin Kalumba → Antonio Sánchez
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Toni Lato
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Buba Sangaré → Rafa Mir
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Federico Redondo → Marc Aguado
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Tete Morente
Header / 3rd Goal
71'
65'
Event
Manu Morlanes → Zito Luvumbo
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Sergi Darder → Pablo Torre
2nd Substitution
Event
Gonzalo Villar → Grady Diangana
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Rafa Mir
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
58'
Event
Pablo Torre
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Víctor Chust
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Mallorca.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Raíllo from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Tete Morente from Elche earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Attempt Attempt
Penalty attempt unsuccessful. Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca takes a left-footed shot that narrowly misses the target.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Maffeo from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Federico Redondo from Elche has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Adrià Pedrosa comes on to replace Germán Valera due to an injury.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Léo Pétrot comes on to replace Álvaro Rodríguez.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Maffeo from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Léo Pétrot from Elche committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Léo Pétrot from Elche has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Omar Mascarell from Mallorca committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Elche 2, Mallorca 1.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Elche after Martin Valjent allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Léo Pétrot from Elche attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Tete Morente from Elche attempted a right-footed shot from over 35 yards but it went wide to the left. The chance was set up by Federico Redondo during a quick counterattack.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Justin Kalumba replaces Antonio Sánchez.
88
Update Update
Pedro Bigas from Elche committed a handball in the penalty area, resulting in a penalty being awarded.
83
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
83
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Toni Lato from Mallorca has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
82
Update Update
Match halted - Elche.
81
Update Update
Toni Lato from Mallorca committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Buba Sangaré comes on to replace Rafa Mir.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Federico Redondo replaces Marc Aguado due to an injury.
78
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Samú Costa from Mallorca attempted a header from the center of the penalty area, but it went off target.
77
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
76
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Marc Aguado from Elche.
73
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
73
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Elche takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Mallorca. Tete Morente heads the ball from the center of the penalty area into the bottom left corner of the net, thanks to a cross delivered by Germán Valera.
70
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Sergi Darder from Mallorca takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
68
Update Update
Germán Valera from Elche earned a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Update Update
Antonio Sánchez from Mallorca committed a foul.
68
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Omar Mascarell from Mallorca takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
67
Update Update
Sergi Darder from Mallorca committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca committed a foul.
66
Update Update
David Affengruber from Elche was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Manu Morlanes comes on to replace Zito Luvumbo.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Sergi Darder comes on to replace Pablo Torre.
64
Update Update
David Affengruber from Elche committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Mateo Joseph from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Elche: Gonzalo Villar comes on to replace Grady Diangana.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Elche 1, Mallorca 1. Rafa Mir scores for Elche with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner.
58
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tete Morente from Elche takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Grady Diangana.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Elche 0, Mallorca 1. Pablo Torre scores for Mallorca with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the bottom right corner. The assist came from Zito Luvumbo.
57
Update Update
Marc Aguado from Elche earned a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Update Update
Zito Luvumbo from Mallorca committed a foul.
55
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mateo Joseph from Mallorca attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it sailed over the goal.
55
Update Update
Omar Mascarell from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
55
Update Update
Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche committed a foul.
55
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Samú Costa from Mallorca takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Matías Dituro from Elche makes a fantastic save, diving to his right. The assist came from Mateo Joseph.
54
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
54
Update Update
Match paused - Elche.
51
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca earned a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca earned a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Grady Diangana committed a foul against Elche.
50
Update Update
Antonio Raíllo from Mallorca earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be no additional minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Rafa Mir from Elche took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but couldn't find the target.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Elche 0, Mallorca 0.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Elche 0, Mallorca 0.
44
Update Update
David Affengruber from Elche has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Omar Mascarell committed a foul against a player from Mallorca.
43
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive play underway. Pedro Bigas from Elche takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
38
Update Update
Offside call against Mallorca. Antonio Raíllo is caught in an offside position.
37
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Samú Costa from Mallorca attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Zito Luvumbo.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Pedro Bigas allowed the ball to go out.
37
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Zito Luvumbo.
36
Update Update
Pedro Bigas from Elche earned a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca committed a foul.
35
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Elche. Germán Valera takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Leo Román, the goalkeeper for Mallorca, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Aleix Febas.
33
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Vedat Muriqi from Mallorca took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly went wide to the left.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Marc Aguado.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Victor Chust of Elche has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
28
Update Update
Victor Chust committed a foul on a player from Elche.
28
Update Update
Zito Luvumbo from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
26
Update Update
Tete Morente from Elche committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Omar Mascarell from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Offside call against Elche. Álvaro Rodríguez has been caught offside.
24
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Germán Valera, who delivered a cross.
21
Update Update
Pedro Bigas from Elche committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Zito Luvumbo from Mallorca has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Grady Diangana from Elche took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The assist was provided by Tete Morente.
14
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Germán Valera from Elche attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Tete Morente following a corner kick.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Elche after Martin Valjent allowed the ball to go out.
12
Update Update
Offside call against Elche. Rafa Mir has been caught in an offside position.
10
Update Update
Germán Valera from Elche committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Antonio Sánchez from Mallorca has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
9
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca earned a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche committed a foul.
7
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Aleix Febas from Elche takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
4
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca committed a foul.
4
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Zito Luvumbo of Mallorca takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Matías Dituro, the goalkeeper for Elche, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this opportunity came from Antonio Sánchez.
4
Update Update
Germán Valera from Elche earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after David Affengruber gave it away.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Elche exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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