Dundee United vs Celtic Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tannadice Park Sun, 22 Mar - 12:30 PM
Premiership
Dundee United DUD
2 Winner 0
Celtic CEL
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 12:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Will Ferry - 51'
Emmanuel Agyei - 66'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with a shocking full-time score of Dundee United 2, Celtic 0. After a completely scoreless first half, the home side pulled off a massive upset against the significantly stronger visitors. Pre-match expectations heavily favored Celtic, with the market giving them a 60.4% chance of victory compared to a mere 19.3% for Dundee United (

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
VS
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Motherwell Rank: 68 L
Aberdeen Rank: 57 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 57 D
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 73 D
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Dundee United Rank: 63 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Motherwell Rank: 68 L
Livingston Rank: 53 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 15 - 38
38

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee United
19.28%
Draw
20.32%
Away Celtic
60.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.65
76.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee United
Celtic
Power Score
62.65
76.99
League Position
7
3
Global Rank
402
82

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee United Celtic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
79.23
21.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.55
79.23
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dundee United +4.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Celtic -4.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee United
Celtic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee United
vs
Celtic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee United Celtic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee United Celtic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Dundee United
Celtic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee United DUD Home
57 matches
Celtic CEL Away
Match Record
4
Wins
38
15
Draws
15
38
Losses
4
Goals
42
Goals Scored
140
140
Goals Conceded
42
-98
Goal Difference
+98
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Maynard-Brewer
Australia
1 A. Maynard-Brewer
I. Iovu
Moldova
4 I. Iovu
R. Graham
Scotland
6 (C) R. Graham
K. Keresztes
Hungary
23 K. Keresztes
L. Stephenson
England
21 L. Stephenson
V. Ševelj
Substitution
Croatia
5 V. Ševelj
E. Agyei
Ghana
12 E. Agyei
W. Ferry
Republic of Ireland
11 W. Ferry
N. Farrugia
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
20 N. Farrugia
A. Ahmed Fatah
Sweden
17 A. Ahmed Fatah
M. Watters
Substitution
England
36 M. Watters
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
K. Tierney
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 L. Scales
B. Arthur
England
43 B. Arthur
C. Donovan
Substitution
51 C. Donovan
R. Hatate
Substitution
Japan
41 R. Hatate
C. McGregor
Substitution
Scotland
42 (C) C. McGregor
D. Maeda
Japan
38 D. Maeda
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
H. Yang
South Korea
13 H. Yang
K. Iheanacho
Substitution
Nigeria
17 K. Iheanacho

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Tannadice Park
Capacity
14268
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
N. Walsh
Daniel McFarlane
David McGeachie
Lloyd Wilson

Statistics

Possession
DUD
35%
CEL
65%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 5
32 Dangerous attacks 59
26 Possession 74
7 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
12 Goal Kicks 9
17 Throwins 29
59 Ball Safe 86
14 Goal Attempts 5
8 Successful Dribbles 9
13 Dribble Attempts 20
19 Successful Headers 15
3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

88 Attacks 130
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

52 Successful Passes Percentage 81
14 Key Passes 10
108 Successful Passes 479
24 Successful Long Passes 15
58 Long Passes 63
207 Passes 591
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24

Defensive

3 Saves 6
18 Interceptions 12
15 Tackles 15

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 23
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

7 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

1
Ashley Maynard-Brewer
Ashley Maynard-Brewer Goalkeeper
7.25
4
Iurie Iovu
Iurie Iovu Defender
7.64
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham (C) Defender
7.61
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
6.42
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Midfielder
7.29
14
Craig Sibbald
Craig Sibbald
Midfielder88'
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
8.38
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
8.11
21
L. Stephenson
L. Stephenson Midfielder
7.38
17
Amar Fatah
Amar Fatah Attacker
6.54
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia Attacker
6.94
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford
Midfielder72'
6.55
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
6.99
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara
Midfielder89'
Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
7.36
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Defender
6.72
43
Benjamin Arthur
Benjamin Arthur Defender
6.92
51
Colby Donovan
Colby Donovan Defender
6.71
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan
Midfielder62'
6.41
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
6.57
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
6.59
49
James Forrest
James Forrest
Midfielder75'
6.85
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
6.89
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Midfielder
6.51
41
Reo Hatate
Reo Hatate Midfielder
7.17
9
Junior Adamu
Junior Adamu
Attacker75'
6.67
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor (C) Midfielder
6.82
21
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Midfielder57'
6.82
17
Kelechi Iheanacho
Kelechi Iheanacho Attacker
6.59
23
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti
Attacker57'
6.07

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Panutche Camara → Max Watters
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Craig Sibbald → Vicko Sevelj
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Ross Graham
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
80'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Junior Adamu → Reo Hatate
5th Substitution
75'
Event
James Forrest → Benjamin Nygren
6th Substitution
Event
Zachary Sapsford → N. Farrugia
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Emmanuel Agyei
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
62'
Event
Luke McCowan → Colby Donovan
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Sebastian Tounekti → Kelechi Iheanacho
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain → Callum McGregor
1st Substitution
Event
Will Ferry
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
51'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Liam Scales
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
L. Stephenson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'

Match Commentary

89
Substitution Substitution
Panutche Camara is being substituted for Dundee United in the 89th minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Craig Sibbald of Dundee United is being substituted in the 88th minute.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ross Graham from Dundee United received a yellow card in the 87th minute.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daizen Maeda of Celtic receives a yellow card in the 80th minute.
75
Substitution Substitution
James Forrest from Celtic is being substituted in the 75th minute.
75
Substitution Substitution
Junior Adamu has been substituted for Celtic in the 75th minute.
72
Substitution Substitution
Zachary Sapsford has been substituted for Dundee United in the 72nd minute.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Emmanuel Agyei scores for Dundee United in the 66th minute!
62
Substitution Substitution
Luke McCowan is being substituted for Celtic in the 62nd minute.
57
Substitution Substitution
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has been substituted for Celtic in the 57th minute.
57
Substitution Substitution
Sebastian Tounekti of Celtic is being substituted in the 57th minute.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Will Ferry scores for Dundee United in the 51st minute!
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Scales of Celtic received a yellow card in the 33rd minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dundee United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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