Derby County vs Birmingham City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Pride Park Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 12:30 PM
Championship
Derby County DRB
1 Winner 0
Birmingham City BRC
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 12:30 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Rhian Brewster - 43'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Derby County securing a 1-0 victory over Birmingham City. The home side took a 1-0 lead into the halftime break and maintained their advantage through to the final whistle. This result represented a significant deviation in favor of Derby County compared to pre-match expectations. Going into the game, Birmingham City were narrow market favorites with a 36.9% win probability, while Derby held a 34.8% chance and a draw sat at 28.3%. Consequently, the full-time outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Despite the market's initial outlook, the final scoreline was entirely consistent with the expected goals (xG) data. Derby County thoroughly dominated the quality of scoring chances, generating an impressive 1.91 xG compared to Birmingham City's minimal 0.25 xG. Meanwhile, possession remained tightly contested in the middle of the pitch, with Derby holding a marginal edge at 51% against Birmingham's 49%. The overall efficiency shift for the match was in line with underlying performance metrics. Furthermore, the match progressed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either side, allowing the stronger team's statistical superiority to decide the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Derby County showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
VS
Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: 68 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 D
Charlton Athletic Rank: 68 W
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
Wrexham Rank: 75 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Stoke City Rank: 67 D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 D
Coventry City Rank: 77 W
Watford Rank: 69 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 11 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Derby County
34.77%
Draw
28.34%
Away Birmingham City
36.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.59
64.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Derby County
Birmingham City
Power Score
70.59
64.01
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
184
186

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Derby County Birmingham City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Birmingham City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Derby County ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Birmingham City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.33
9.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.80
38.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Derby County +2.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Birmingham City -2.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Derby County
Birmingham City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Derby County
vs
Birmingham City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Derby County Birmingham City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Derby County Birmingham City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Derby County
Birmingham City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Derby County DRB Home
30 matches
Birmingham City BRC Away
Match Record
10
Wins
9
11
Draws
11
9
Losses
10
Goals
49
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
49
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
R. O'Donnell
England
12 R. O'Donnell
J. Ward
England
23 J. Ward
D. Sanderson
England
28 D. Sanderson
M. Clarke
England
5 M. Clarke
D. Murkin
England
2 D. Murkin
L. Travis
England
27 (C) L. Travis
B. Clark
Substitution
England
42 B. Clark
B. Brereton
Chile
25 B. Brereton
S. Szmodics
Substitution
England
19 S. Szmodics
R. Brewster
Substitution
England
10 R. Brewster
P. Agyemang
Substitution
Ghana
7 P. Agyemang
J. Beadle
England
25 J. Beadle
J. Panzo
Substitution
England
37 J. Panzo
J. Robinson
England
6 J. Robinson
C. Klarer
Austria
4 (C) C. Klarer
I. Osman
Substitution
Ghana
17 I. Osman
S. Paik
South Korea
8 S. Paik
T. Iwata
Japan
24 T. Iwata
E. Laird
Substitution
England
2 E. Laird
J. Stansfield
Substitution
England
28 J. Stansfield
M. Ducksch
Substitution
Germany
33 M. Ducksch
D. Gray
Jamaica
10 D. Gray

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium
Pride Park Stadium
Capacity
33597
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gavin Ward
Graham Kane
Natalie Aspinall
Adam Herczeg

Statistics

Possession
DRB
53%
BRC
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
17 Shots 3
51 Dangerous attacks 36
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 15
25 Throwins 17
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
16 Dribble Attempts 12
16 Successful Headers 19
9 Successful Dribbles 5
83 Ball Safe 83
9 Goal Attempts 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

104 Attacks 86
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

237 Successful Passes 234
24 Successful Long Passes 19
332 Passes 323
71 Successful Passes Percentage 72
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
66 Long Passes 66
15 Key Passes 0

Defensive

0 Saves 5
13 Tackles 21
3 Interceptions 5

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 17
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

12
Richard O'Donnell
Richard O'Donnell Goalkeeper
6.57
2
Derry Murkin
Derry Murkin Defender
7.26
5
Matt Clarke
Matt Clarke Defender
7.13
23
Joe Ward
Joe Ward Defender
7.27
28
Dion Sanderson
Dion Sanderson Defender
6.67
10
Rhian Brewster
Rhian Brewster Midfielder
7.49
34
Jaydon Banel
Jaydon Banel
Midfielder65'
6.34
19
Sammie Szmodics
Sammie Szmodics Midfielder
7.31
29
Oscar Fraulo
Oscar Fraulo
Midfielder83'
6.5
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
Ben Brereton Díaz Midfielder
7.04
27
Lewis Travis
Lewis Travis (C) Midfielder
7.17
42
Bobby Clark
Bobby Clark Midfielder
7.43
18
David Ozoh
David Ozoh
Midfielder84'
6.52
7
Patrick Agyemang
Patrick Agyemang Attacker
6.4
9
Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris
Attacker83'
6.13
Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

25
James Beadle
James Beadle Goalkeeper
7.22
4
Christoph Klarer
Christoph Klarer (C) Defender
7.17
6
Jack Robinson
Jack Robinson Defender
7.12
37
Jonathan Panzo
Jonathan Panzo Defender
6.26
9
Kyogo Furuhashi
Kyogo Furuhashi
Attacker84'
6.42
2
Ethan Laird
Ethan Laird Midfielder
6.45
7
Tommy Doyle
Tommy Doyle
Midfielder58'
6.77
8
Seung-ho Paik
Seung-ho Paik Midfielder
6.47
17
Ibrahim Osman
Ibrahim Osman Midfielder
6.39
23
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente
Attacker58'
6.55
24
Tomoki Iwata
Tomoki Iwata Midfielder
6.65
10
Demarai Gray
Demarai Gray Attacker
5.98
28
Jay Stansfield
Jay Stansfield Attacker
6.4
29
August Priske
August Priske
Attacker71'
6.71
33
Marvin Ducksch
Marvin Ducksch Attacker
6.79
14
Jhon Solís
Jhon Solís
Midfielder59'
6.32

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Jhon Solís
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Jack Robinson
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
David Ozoh → Bobby Clark
9th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Kyogo Furuhashi → Jonathan Panzo
8th Substitution
Event
Carlton Morris → Patrick Agyemang
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Oscar Fraulo → Sammie Szmodics
6th Substitution
83'
71'
Event
August Priske → Jay Stansfield
5th Substitution
Event
Patrick Agyemang
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Jaydon Banel → Rhian Brewster
4th Substitution
65'
59'
Event
Jhon Solís → Marvin Ducksch
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Tommy Doyle → Ethan Laird
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Carlos Vicente → Ibrahim Osman
2nd Substitution
48'
Event
Jonathan Panzo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Rhian Brewster
Header / 1st Goal
43'
32'
Event
Ibrahim Osman
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Jack Robinson from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Carlton Morris from Derby County committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Jack Robinson from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after a foul by August Priske.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jhon Solís of Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Carlton Morris from Derby County has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Jack Robinson allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. August Priske of Birmingham City attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Derby County defeating Birmingham City 1-0.
87
Update Update
August Priske committed a foul on a Birmingham City player.
87
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jack Robinson of Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joe Ward from Derby County takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
85
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Derby County after a foul by Jhon Solís.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: David Ozoh comes on to replace Bobby Clark.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Carlton Morris replaces Patrick Agyemang.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Kyogo Furuhashi is coming on to replace Jonathan Panzo.
83
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County earned a free kick in an offensive position.
83
Update Update
Fouled by Paik Seung-Ho - Birmingham City. nnRephrased: Paik Seung-Ho committed a foul against Birmingham City.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Oscar Fraulo comes on to replace Sam Szmodics.
81
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Sam Szmodics.
81
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Bobby Clark from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but James Beadle from Birmingham City makes a great save, diving to his left to keep it out.
79
Update Update
Offside call against Birmingham City. Carlos Vicente is caught in an offside position.
76
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County fired a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Bobby Clark.
76
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
Derry John Murkin from Derby County committed a foul.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Paik Seung-Ho from Birmingham City fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
74
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Patrick Agyemang has been caught in an offside position.
71
Update Update
Carlos Vicente commits a handball for Birmingham City.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: August Priske is coming on to replace Jay Stansfield.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County has been shown a yellow card.
70
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Christoph Klarer from Birmingham City was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
69
Attempt Attempt
Joe Ward from Derby County strikes the right post with a right-footed shot taken from the right side of the penalty area, assisted by Patrick Agyemang.
68
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
68
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Another offensive push underway. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
66
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Sam Szmodics from Derby County attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Ben Brereton.
66
Update Update
Fouled by Tomoki Iwata - Birmingham City. nnRephrased: Tomoki Iwata committed a foul against Birmingham City.
65
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Jonathan Panzo of Birmingham City attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to find the target.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Jaydon Banel comes on to replace Rhian Brewster, who is leaving the pitch due to an injury.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Matt Clarke gave it away.
61
Update Update
Christoph Klarer committed a foul on a Birmingham City player.
61
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Lewis Travis allowed the ball to go out.
59
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Jhon Solís comes on to replace Marvin Ducksch.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Tommy Doyle replaces Ethan Laird.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Carlos Vicente comes on to replace Ibrahim Osman.
57
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Rhian Brewster from Derby County.
56
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort is underway. Sam Szmodics from Derby County takes a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area, but James Beadle from Birmingham City makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Patrick Agyemang, who set him up with a header.
54
Update Update
Lewis Travis committed a foul against Derby County.
54
Update Update
Paik Seung-Ho from Birmingham City was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
53
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo from Birmingham City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Ben Brereton of Derby County committed a foul.
52
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ben Brereton from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but James Beadle of Birmingham City makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Lewis Travis.
51
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Matt Clarke of Derby County had a header from inside the six-yard box, but he sent it soaring high and wide to the left. The assist came from Joe Ward, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
50
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Derby County after Tomoki Iwata allowed the ball to go out of play.
49
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lewis Travis from Derby County fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
48
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo of Birmingham City committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo from Birmingham City committed a foul.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonathan Panzo of Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Derby County leading Birmingham City 1-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Derby County leading Birmingham City 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Derby County takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Birmingham City. Rhian Brewster scores with a header from the center of the box, directing it into the right corner of the net. The assist comes from Derry John Murkin, who delivered a precise cross.
41
Update Update
Derry John Murkin from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo from Birmingham City committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Jay Stansfield from Birmingham City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
38
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Jack Robinson from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
35
Update Update
Ethan Laird commits a foul against Birmingham City.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joe Ward from Derby County takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
30
Update Update
Offside call against Birmingham City. Jay Stansfield has been caught in an offside position.
30
Update Update
Tomoki Iwata from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Lewis Travis committed a foul against Derby County.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Ibrahim Osman allowed the ball to go out.
26
Update Update
Marvin Ducksch from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Dion Sanderson committed a foul against Derby County.
24
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Marvin Ducksch committed a foul against a Birmingham City player.
20
Update Update
Jay Stansfield committed a foul on a Birmingham City player.
20
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Jack Robinson from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Update Update
Demarai Gray commits a foul for Birmingham City.
15
Update Update
Lewis Travis of Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Demarai Gray committed a foul for Birmingham City.
14
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Offside called against Derby County. Sam Szmodics is caught in an offside position.
13
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rhian Brewster from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lewis Travis.
12
Update Update
Ben Brereton from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
12
Update Update
Jay Stansfield committed a foul for Birmingham City.
10
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Patrick Agyemang from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box. However, James Beadle, the goalkeeper for Birmingham City, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Lewis Travis.
9
Update Update
Sam Szmodics from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Jay Stansfield committed a foul against Birmingham City.
8
Update Update
Demarai Gray from Birmingham City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County committed a foul.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Christoph Klarer allowed the ball to go out.
7
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Patrick Agyemang from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Sam Szmodics, who delivered a cross.
6
Update Update
Offside called against Derby County. Sam Szmodics has been flagged for being in an offside position.
4
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rhian Brewster from Derby County attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Joe Ward.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Derby County exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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