Deportivo La Coruña vs Real Zaragoza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Abanca-Riazor Sat, 21 Mar - 8:00 PM
La Liga 2
Deportivo La Coruña COR
2 Winner 1
Real Zaragoza ZAR
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 8:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Stoichkov - 20'
Samuele Mulattieri - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Dani Gómez - 6'

CONTEXT

The match between Deportivo La Coruña and Real Zaragoza has officially finished, ending in a 1-1 draw at full-time. Both goals were scored early, leaving the teams evenly matched at 1-1 going into the halftime break. The final scoreline represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating Deportivo La Coruña. The home side entered the contest as the stronger team and clear favorites, holding a 52.3% implied market probability of winning. In contrast, Real Zaragoza held a mere 19.9% chance of an away victory, with a draw sitting at 27.9%. As a result, the drawn outcome failed to align with the pre-match market. On the pitch, Deportivo La Coruña controlled the majority of the play, maintaining 55% possession compared to Zaragoza's 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to determine whether the final result aligned with the underlying chance creation. Despite this, the overall efficiency shift was recorded as being strictly in line with expectations. The match was played evenly and without severe disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card during the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deportivo La Coruña showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Deportivo La Coruña A. Hidalgo Morilla
A. Hidalgo Morilla
VS
Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.91
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 69 W
Castellón Rank: 66 L
Albacete Rank: 67 W
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 W
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Almería Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: 67 L
FC Andorra Rank: 61 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 D
SD Eibar Rank: 69 D
Albacete Rank: 67 L
Castellón Rank: 66 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 8 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Deportivo La Coruña
52.27%
Draw
27.87%
Away Real Zaragoza
19.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.05
59.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Deportivo La Coruña
Real Zaragoza
Power Score
68.05
59.45
League Position
3
20
Global Rank
242
503

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Deportivo La Coruña — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Deportivo La Coruña Real Zaragoza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Deportivo La Coruña

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Deportivo La Coruña ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.00
25.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.89
33.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Deportivo La Coruña +0.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Zaragoza -0.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo La Coruña
Real Zaragoza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Deportivo La Coruña ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Deportivo La Coruña Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Deportivo La Coruña Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo La Coruña
Real Zaragoza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Deportivo La Coruña COR Home
22 matches
Real Zaragoza ZAR Away
Match Record
6
Wins
8
8
Draws
8
8
Losses
6
Goals
25
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
25
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
Á. Fernández Llorente
Spain
25 Á. Fernández Llorente
J. Navarro Jiménez
Spain
23 J. Navarro Jiménez
L. Noubi Ngnokam
Belgium
4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
A. Comas Freixas
Spain
3 A. Comas Freixas
G. Quagliata
Substitution
Italy
12 G. Quagliata
A. Altimira Reynaldos
Substitution
Spain
2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
M. Soriano Carreño
Spain
21 M. Soriano Carreño
D. Villares Yáñez
Spain
8 (C) D. Villares Yáñez
L. Cruz Hernández
Substitution
Spain
19 L. Cruz Hernández
J. Molina Martínez
Substitution
Spain
22 J. Molina Martínez
B. Nsongo Tonfack
Substitution
32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
E. Andrada
Argentina
1 E. Andrada
D. Esmorís Tasende
Spain
3 D. Esmorís Tasende
A. Radovanović
Serbia
16 A. Radovanović
P. Ínsua Blanco
Spain
4 P. Ínsua Blanco
M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
Spain
20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
H. Pinilla Ruiz
Substitution
31 H. Pinilla Ruiz
F. Gracia
Spain
14 (C) F. Gracia
M. Mensah Vadze
Substitution
Ghana
26 M. Mensah Vadze
R. González Bayón
Substitution
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
K. Kodro
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 K. Kodro
D. Gómez Alcón
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Abanca-Riazor
Capacity
32490
Attendance
23984
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Cantón Vitoria
Saúl Ais Reig
Ricard Esteve Valenzuela
Fernando Román Román

Statistics

Possession
COR
54%
ZAR
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 5
63 Dangerous attacks 33
55 Possession 45
7 Corners 1
6 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

24 Dribble Attempts 18
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
17 Throwins 11
15 Successful Dribbles 11
2 Assists 1
6 Goal Kicks 9
5 Substitutions 4
88 Ball Safe 90
12 Goal Attempts 8
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

105 Attacks 94
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 21
89 Successful Passes Percentage 87
40 Long Passes 42
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
538 Passes 458
11 Key Passes 9
481 Successful Passes 397

Defensive

8 Interceptions 10
12 Tackles 16
3 Saves 2

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 11
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Saúl Ais Reig

Starting XI ▼

25
Álvaro Fernández
Álvaro Fernández Goalkeeper
6.62
3
Arnau Comas
Arnau Comas Defender
7.13
4
Lucas Noubi
Lucas Noubi Defender
6.86
12
Giacomo Quagliata
Giacomo Quagliata Defender
6.98
18
Sergio Escudero
Sergio Escudero
Defender81'
6.56
23
Ximo Navarro
Ximo Navarro Defender
6.81
2
Adrià Altimira
Adrià Altimira Midfielder
6.86
17
Cristian Herrera
Cristian Herrera
Attacker65'
6.61
8
Diego Villares
Diego Villares (C) Midfielder
6.79
19
Luismi Cruz
Luismi Cruz Midfielder
7.06
9
Zakaria Eddahchouri
Zakaria Eddahchouri
Attacker82'
6.48
21
Mario Soriano
Mario Soriano Midfielder
7.35
22
Stoichkov
Stoichkov Attacker
7.66
10
Yeremay Hernández
Yeremay Hernández
Attacker72'
6.68
32
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack Attacker
6.4
7
Samuele Mulattieri
Samuele Mulattieri
Attacker72'
7.13
Referee : Saúl Ais Reig

Starting XI ▼

1
Esteban Andrada
Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper
6.06
3
Dani Tasende
Dani Tasende Defender
6.81
4
Pablo Insua
Pablo Insua Defender
6.47
16
Aleksandar Radovanovic
Aleksandar Radovanovic Defender
6.58
20
Martín Aguirregabiria
Martín Aguirregabiria Defender
6.5
11
Rober González
Rober González Midfielder
6.32
7
Mario Soberón
Mario Soberón
Attacker82'
6.33
14
Francho Serrano
Francho Serrano (C) Midfielder
6.79
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze Midfielder
7.04
8
Toni Moya
Toni Moya
Midfielder82'
6.41
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla Midfielder
6.7
25
Nikola Cumic
Nikola Cumic
Attacker46'
6.61
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
7.25
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro Attacker
6.73
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu
Midfielder46'
7.67

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Aleksandar Radovanovic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Esteban Andrada
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Samuele Mulattieri
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
Zakaria Eddahchouri → Luismi Cruz
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Toni Moya → Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Mario Soberón → Rober González
9th Substitution
Event
Sergio Escudero → Giacomo Quagliata
6th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
Pablo Insua
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Yeremay Hernández → Stoichkov
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Samuele Mulattieri → Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Giacomo Quagliata
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Cristian Herrera → Adrià Altimira
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Arnau Comas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
46'
Event
Nikola Cumic → Hugo Pinilla
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Yussif Saidu → Kenan Kodro
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Stoichkov
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
20'
6'
Event
Dani Gómez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Stoichkov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
3'
3'
Event
Alejandro Gomes Furtado
Argument / 7th Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Deportivo La Coruña exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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