Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Selhurst Park Thu, 12 Mar - 8:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace CRY
0 – 0
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
Full Time Thu, 12 Mar 8:00 PM

CONTEXT

The match between Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca has officially finished in a 0-0 draw, remaining completely scoreless from halftime to the final whistle. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, largely driven by AEK Larnaca securing an unlikely point. Before kickoff, the market heavily favored the home side with a 76.5% probability of winning, while a draw sat at just 15.6% and an away victory at a mere 7.9%. Consequently, this final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. Crystal Palace absolutely dominated the ball throughout the fixture, holding a commanding 71% possession compared to AEK Larnaca's 29%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unfortunately not available for this contest, making it impossible to state whether the scoreless draw aligned with the underlying offensive shot quality. Furthermore, discipline was not a disruptive factor, as the match concluded with zero red cards issued to alter the flow of play. Despite the surprising draw, the overall efficiency shift remained in line with the data. Crystal Palace posted a positive efficiency mark of 0.9505, while AEK Larnaca recorded -0.9505, showing that the home team exerted heavy pressure but ultimately failed to break the deadlock.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AEK Larnaca showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Zobenica
B. Zobenica
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
D. Bel
D. Bel
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
I. Mihalj
I. Mihalj
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
I. Pajač
I. Pajač
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.81
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.13
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Crystal Palace O. Glasner
O. Glasner
VS
AEK Larnaca J. Fernandez Rozada Álvarez
J. Fernandez Rozada Álvarez
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
KuPS Rank: D
Shelbourne Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: 79 L
AZ Rank: 75 W
AEK Larnaca Rank: L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Skendija 79 Rank: W
Häcken Rank: 57 D
Rijeka Rank: 72 D
Aberdeen Rank: 59 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 W
AZ Rank: 75 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Crystal Palace
76.47%
Draw
15.62%
Away AEK Larnaca
7.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.25
34.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Crystal Palace
AEK Larnaca
Power Score
29.25
34.57
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Crystal Palace — Opponent-weighted form score
AEK Larnaca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Crystal Palace AEK Larnaca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Crystal Palace

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AEK Larnaca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Crystal Palace ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Larnaca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.32
9.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.48
22.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Crystal Palace +1.05 Efficiency Index
vs
AEK Larnaca -1.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Crystal Palace
AEK Larnaca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Crystal Palace ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Larnaca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Crystal Palace AEK Larnaca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Crystal Palace AEK Larnaca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Crystal Palace
AEK Larnaca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Crystal Palace CRY Home
1 matches
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-13T01:06:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
D. Henderson
England
1 (C) D. Henderson
C. Richards
United States
26 C. Richards
M. Lacroix
France
5 M. Lacroix
J. Canvot
France
23 J. Canvot
B. Johnson
Substitution
Wales
11 B. Johnson
A. Wharton
England
20 A. Wharton
D. Kamada
Japan
18 D. Kamada
T. Mitchell
England
3 T. Mitchell
I. Sarr
Senegal
7 I. Sarr
J. Strand Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 J. Strand Larsen
E. Guessand
France
29 E. Guessand
Z. Alomerovic
Serbia
1 Z. Alomerovic
Á. García Cabezali
Substitution
Spain
14 (C) Á. García Cabezali
E. Saborit Teixidor
Spain
4 E. Saborit Teixidor
H. Miličević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
15 H. Miličević
E. Ekpolo
Nigeria
22 E. Ekpolo
J. Miramón Santagertrudis
Substitution
Spain
21 J. Miramón Santagertrudis
Đ. Ivanović
Substitution
Serbia
9 Đ. Ivanović
P. Pons Riera
Spain
17 P. Pons Riera
L. Ledes Evangelista dos Santos
Portugal
7 L. Ledes Evangelista dos Santos
M. Rohdén
Substitution
Sweden
8 M. Rohdén
R. Bajić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 R. Bajić

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 12, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadium
Selhurst Park
Capacity
25456
Attendance
17985
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bojan Zobenica
Dario Bel
Ivan Mihalj
Igor Pajač

Statistics

Possession
CRY
66%
AEK Larnaca
34%

Top Statistics

3 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 0
57 Dangerous attacks 15
71 Possession 29
6 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

26 Throwins 19
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
10 Successful Dribbles 8
19 Dribble Attempts 11
4 Goal Kicks 10
2 Substitutions 5
62 Ball Safe 57
1 Injuries 1
10 Goal Attempts 1

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0
150 Attacks 63

Possession

526 Successful Passes 156
10 Successful Long Passes 26
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
88 Successful Passes Percentage 63
31 Long Passes 68
601 Passes 248
8 Key Passes 1

Defensive

12 Tackles 15
7 Interceptions 9
0 Saves 4
38 Duels Won 42

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 5
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Igor Pajač

Starting XI ▼

1
Dean Henderson
Dean Henderson (C) Goalkeeper
6.58
5
Maxence Lacroix
Maxence Lacroix Defender
6.83
23
Jaydee Canvot
Jaydee Canvot Defender
7.07
26
Chris Richards
Chris Richards Defender
7.77
3
Tyrick Mitchell
Tyrick Mitchell Midfielder
6.74
11
Brennan Johnson
Brennan Johnson Midfielder
7.44
10
Yéremy Pino
Yéremy Pino
Midfielder87'
18
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada Midfielder
7.43
20
Adam Wharton
Adam Wharton Midfielder
6.89
7
Ismaïla Sarr
Ismaïla Sarr Attacker
6.46
22
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen Attacker
6.93
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Attacker77'
6.36
29
Evann Guessand
Evann Guessand Attacker
6.73
Referee : Igor Pajač

Starting XI ▼

1
Zlatan Alomerovic
Zlatan Alomerovic Goalkeeper
7.96
4
Enric Saborit
Enric Saborit Defender
7.23
14
Ángel García
Ángel García (C) Defender
6.43
32
Robert Mudrazija
Robert Mudrazija
Midfielder87'
15
Hrvoje Milicevic
Hrvoje Milicevic Defender
6.75
21
Jorge Miramón
Jorge Miramón Defender
6.39
2
Petros Ioannou
Petros Ioannou
Defender29'
7.11
22
Godswill Ekpolo
Godswill Ekpolo Defender
6.52
7
Gus Ledes
Gus Ledes Midfielder
6.64
8
Marcus Rohdén
Marcus Rohdén Midfielder
6.41
25
Charalampos Kyriakou
Charalampos Kyriakou
Midfielder87'
9
Djordje Ivanovic
Djordje Ivanovic Midfielder
6.36
13
Yahav Gurfinkel
Yahav Gurfinkel
Defender68'
6.37
17
Pere Pons
Pere Pons Midfielder
6.83
11
Riad Bajic
Riad Bajic Attacker
6.67
30
Enzo Cabrera
Enzo Cabrera
Attacker68'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yéremy Pino → Brennan Johnson
7th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Charalampos Kyriakou → Marcus Rohdén
5th Substitution
87'
Event
Robert Mudrazija → Ángel García
6th Substitution
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta → Jørgen Strand Larsen
4th Substitution
77'
68'
Event
Enzo Cabrera → Riad Bajic
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Yahav Gurfinkel → Djordje Ivanovic
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Adam Wharton
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
29'
Event
Petros Ioannou → Jorge Miramón
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Offside call against AEK Larnaca. Enzo Cabrera has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Offside call against AEK Larnaca. Enzo Cabrera has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace commits a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is denied. Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace tries a left-footed effort from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The chance was set up by a cross from Tyrick Mitchell.
90
Update Update
Offside call against AEK Larnaca. Enzo Cabrera has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, and the match finishes with Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca both locked in a goalless draw at 0-0.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, and the match ends with Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca both unable to find the net, resulting in a score of 0-0.
88
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Larnaca after Chris Richards allowed the ball to go out.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AEK Larnaca after Maxence Lacroix allowed the ball to go out of play.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Larnaca: Charalambos Kyriakou comes on to take the place of Marcus Rohdén.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Yéremy Pino comes on to take the place of Brennan Johnson.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Larnaca: Robert Mudrazija comes on to take the place of Ángel García.
86
Update Update
Pere Pons of AEK Larnaca is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
86
Update Update
Adam Wharton commits a foul for Crystal Palace.
85
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Crystal Palace after Hrvoje Milicevic allowed the ball to go out.
80
Update Update
Tyrick Mitchell from Crystal Palace commits a foul.
80
Update Update
Enzo Cabrera from AEK Larnaca earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Jean-Philippe Mateta comes on to replace Jørgen Strand Larsen.
76
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace commits a foul.
76
Update Update
Yahav Gurfinkel from AEK Larnaca has been awarded a free kick in their own half.
74
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Chris Richards from Crystal Palace had a header from close range after a corner, but it went wide.
73
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Crystal Palace after Hrvoje Milicevic allowed the ball to go out.
70
Update Update
Enzo Cabrera from AEK Larnaca commits a foul.
70
Update Update
Daichi Kamada from Crystal Palace earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Larnaca: Yahav Gurfinkel comes on to take the place of Djordje Ivanovic.
68
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Brennan Johnson from Crystal Palace takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar. The attempt was set up by Daichi Kamada after a corner kick.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Larnaca: Enzo Cabrera comes on to take the place of Riad Bajic.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Crystal Palace after Hrvoje Milicevic allowed the ball to go out.
64
Update Update
Ángel García from AEK Larnaca commits a foul.
64
Update Update
Brennan Johnson of Crystal Palace earns a free kick on the right flank.
63
Update Update
Marcus Rohdén of AEK Larnaca commits a foul.
63
Update Update
Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
62
Update Update
Ángel García from AEK Larnaca is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
62
Update Update
Brennan Johnson commits a foul for Crystal Palace.
60
Update Update
Pere Pons from AEK Larnaca commits a foul.
60
Update Update
Brennan Johnson from Crystal Palace earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
59
Update Update
Marcus Rohdén of AEK Larnaca is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
59
Update Update
Daichi Kamada commits a foul against Crystal Palace.
57
Update Update
Close call! Ismaïla Sarr of Crystal Palace heads the ball from just a few yards out, but it goes wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Brennan Johnson.
52
Update Update
Offside call against Crystal Palace. Tyrick Mitchell has been flagged for being in an offside position.
51
Update Update
Enric Saborit from AEK Larnaca committed a foul.
51
Update Update
Offside call against Crystal Palace. Jaydee Canvot has been flagged for being in an offside position.
51
Update Update
Ismaïla Sarr from Crystal Palace earns a free kick on the right flank.
47
Update Update
Djordje Ivanovic from AEK Larnaca commits a foul.
47
Update Update
Ismaïla Sarr from Crystal Palace earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with the score tied at 0-0 between Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at 0-0 between Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca.
44
Update Update
Petros Ioannou from AEK Larnaca earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
43
Update Update
Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace commits a foul.
42
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Crystal Palace after Zlatan Alomerovic allowed the ball to go out of play.
42
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Daichi Kamada of Crystal Palace took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the left.
42
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Tyrick Mitchell from Crystal Palace takes a left-footed attempt from the left side of the six-yard box, but the effort is saved in the middle of the net.
41
Update Update
Offside call against AEK Larnaca. Hrvoje Milicevic has been flagged for being in an offside position.
40
Update Update
Adam Wharton commits a foul for Crystal Palace.
40
Update Update
Djordje Ivanovic of AEK Larnaca earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adam Wharton from Crystal Palace receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
40
Update Update
Offside call against AEK Larnaca. Hrvoje Milicevic has been flagged for being in an offside position.
39
Update Update
Godswill Ekpolo from AEK Larnaca is awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
39
Update Update
Godswill Ekpolo from AEK Larnaca earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
36
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Crystal Palace after Marcus Rohdén allowed the ball to go out of play.
35
Corner Corner
Crystal Palace has been awarded a corner kick after Petros Ioannou allowed the ball to go out of play.
32
Update Update
Riad Bajic from AEK Larnaca earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Maxence Lacroix of Crystal Palace.
29
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Larnaca: Petros Ioannou comes on to take the place of Jorge Miramón, who has been forced off due to an injury.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
29
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Jorge Miramón from AEK Larnaca.
24
Update Update
Adam Wharton from Crystal Palace earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
24
Update Update
Djordje Ivanovic of AEK Larnaca commits a foul.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Maxence Lacroix of Crystal Palace.
22
Update Update
Riad Bajic from AEK Larnaca is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AEK Larnaca after a deflection off Jaydee Canvot.
13
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ismaïla Sarr from Crystal Palace took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
11
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Jørgen Strand Larsen from Crystal Palace takes a right-footed attempt from the middle of the area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
8
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Evann Guessand from Crystal Palace takes a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Adam Wharton from Crystal Palace took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the right.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AEK Larnaca exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews