Club Brugge vs Anderlecht Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Jan Breydelstadion Mon, 6 Apr - 11:30 AM
Pro League
Club Brugge BRU
4 Winner 2
Anderlecht ADL
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 1 Championship Round
Kyriani Sabbe - 15'
Aleksandar Stanković - 29'
Christos Tzolis - 37'
Romeo Vermant - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Thorgan Hazard - 55'
Mihajlo Cvetkovic - 90+1'

CONTEXT

The match between Club Brugge and Anderlecht has finished with an entertaining 4-2 victory for the home side. Club Brugge established a commanding lead early on, taking a decisive 3-0 advantage into the half-time break before closing out the win. The final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match betting market, which heavily favored the hosts with a 66.3% win probability, compared to a 19.8% chance of a draw and Anderlecht's slim 13.9% chance. Club Brugge controlled the tempo throughout the contest, maintaining 58% of the possession while restricting the visitors to 42%. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to evaluate underlying chance quality, the match featured a significant deviation level of 33.7% driven by Club Brugge. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with projections, reflecting the dominant nature of the stronger home side. The fixture proceeded smoothly without any severe disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card to impact the tactical balance. Ultimately, Club Brugge proved they were the unequivocally stronger team on the day, comfortably backing up their favored market status to secure the victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Club Brugge showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Geerolf
M. Geerolf
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
J. Vergoote
J. Vergoote
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
M. Tiesters
M. Tiesters
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
L. D'hondt
L. D'hondt
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Club Brugge I. Leko
I. Leko
VS
Anderlecht J. Taravel
J. Taravel
2.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.3
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: 71 W
Westerlo Rank: 70 W
Anderlecht Rank: 72 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 W
OH Leuven Rank: 66 W
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: 66 L
Mechelen Rank: 70 L
Club Brugge Rank: 85 D
OH Leuven Rank: 66 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 W
La Louvière Rank: 67 D
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 25 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Club Brugge
66.27%
Draw
19.82%
Away Anderlecht
13.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.59
72.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Club Brugge
Anderlecht
Power Score
84.59
72.39
League Position
2
6
Global Rank
37
144

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Club Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Anderlecht — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Club Brugge Anderlecht

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Club Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Anderlecht

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Club Brugge ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Anderlecht
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
55.86
33.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.69
55.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Club Brugge +1.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Anderlecht -1.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Club Brugge
Anderlecht
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Club Brugge ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Anderlecht
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Club Brugge Anderlecht
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Club Brugge Anderlecht
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Club Brugge
Anderlecht
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Club Brugge
vs
Anderlecht
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Club Brugge Anderlecht
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Club Brugge 0.43
Anderlecht 0.57
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Club Brugge Anderlecht
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Club Brugge 0.09
Anderlecht 0.06
Club Brugge
Anderlecht
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 69 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Club Brugge BRU Home
69 matches
Anderlecht ADL Away
Match Record
22
Wins
22
25
Draws
25
22
Losses
22
Goals
99
Goals Scored
95
95
Goals Conceded
99
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:01:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Mignolet
Belgium
22 S. Mignolet
K. Sabbe
Substitution
Belgium
64 K. Sabbe
J. Ordóñez Guerrero
Ecuador
4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
B. Mechele
Belgium
44 B. Mechele
J. Seys
Substitution
Belgium
65 J. Seys
A. Stankovic
Substitution
Serbia
25 A. Stankovic
R. Nwadike
Nigeria
15 R. Nwadike
C. Borges
Substitution
Portugal
9 C. Borges
H. Vanaken
Belgium
20 H. Vanaken
C. Tzolis
Greece
8 C. Tzolis
N. Tresoldi
Substitution
Germany
7 N. Tresoldi
C. Coosemans
Belgium
26 C. Coosemans
L. Augustinsson
Substitution
Sweden
6 L. Augustinsson
M. Diarra
Mali
93 M. Diarra
L. Hey
Denmark
3 L. Hey
K. Sardella
Belgium
54 K. Sardella
E. Llansana
Netherlands
24 E. Llansana
N. De Cat
Substitution
74 N. De Cat
M. Cvetković
Serbia
9 M. Cvetković
T. Hazard
Belgium
11 T. Hazard
T. Degreef
Substitution
Belgium
83 T. Degreef
A. Bertaccini
Substitution
Belgium
91 A. Bertaccini

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Championship Round
Stadium
Jan Breydelstadion
Capacity
29975
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Michael Geerolf
Jasper Vergoote
Martijn Tiesters
Lothar D'hondt

Statistics

Possession
BRU
59%
ADL
41%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 6
68 Dangerous attacks 23
58 Possession 42
8 Corners 2
14 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
6 Goal Kicks 8
14 Throwins 14
91 Ball Safe 76
11 Goal Attempts 11
19 Dribble Attempts 8
4 Assists 1
1 Injuries 1
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
10 Successful Dribbles 3

Attacking

117 Attacks 69
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

448 Successful Passes 298
23 Key Passes 10
520 Passes 378
56 Long Passes 49
86 Successful Passes Percentage 79
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
33 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

11 Tackles 17
4 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 9
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

22
Simon Mignolet
Simon Mignolet Goalkeeper
4
Joel Ordóñez
Joel Ordóñez Defender
44
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
64
Kyriani Sabbe
Kyriani Sabbe Defender
41
Hugo Siquet
Hugo Siquet
Defender87'
65
Joaquin Seys
Joaquin Seys Defender
14
Bjorn Meijer
Bjorn Meijer
Defender87'
8
Christos Tzolis
Christos Tzolis Midfielder
9
Carlos Forbs
Carlos Forbs Midfielder
84
Shandre Campbell
Shandre Campbell
Attacker87'
15
Raphael Onyedika
Raphael Onyedika Midfielder
20
Hans Vanaken
Hans Vanaken Midfielder
25
Aleksandar Stanković
Aleksandar Stanković Midfielder
10
Hugo Vetlesen
Hugo Vetlesen
Midfielder75'
7
Nicolò Tresoldi
Nicolò Tresoldi Attacker
17
Romeo Vermant
Romeo Vermant
Attacker64'
Referee : Jasper Vergoote

Starting XI ▼

26
Colin Coosemans
Colin Coosemans Goalkeeper
3
Lucas Hey
Lucas Hey Defender
6
Ludwig Augustinsson
Ludwig Augustinsson Defender
77
Coba da Costa
Coba da Costa
Attacker82'
54
Killian Sardella
Killian Sardella Defender
93
Moussa Diarra
Moussa Diarra Defender
9
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Mihajlo Cvetkovic Midfielder
11
Thorgan Hazard
Thorgan Hazard Midfielder
24
Enric Llansana
Enric Llansana Midfielder
74
Nathan De Cat
Nathan De Cat Midfielder
10
Yari Verschaeren
Yari Verschaeren
Midfielder88'
83
Tristan Degreef
Tristan Degreef Midfielder
61
Joshua Nga Kana
Joshua Nga Kana
Midfielder71'
91
Adriano Bertaccini
Adriano Bertaccini Attacker
29
Mario Stroeykens
Mario Stroeykens
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Romeo Vermant
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
88'
Event
Yari Verschaeren → Nathan De Cat
9th Substitution
Event
Hugo Siquet → Kyriani Sabbe
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Shandre Campbell → Carlos Forbs
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Bjorn Meijer → Joaquin Seys
7th Substitution
87'
82'
Event
Coba da Costa → Ludwig Augustinsson
5th Substitution
Event
Hugo Vetlesen → Aleksandar Stanković
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Christos Tzolis
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
74'
71'
Event
Joshua Nga Kana → Tristan Degreef
3rd Substitution
Event
Romeo Vermant → Nicolò Tresoldi
2nd Substitution
64'
55'
Event
Thorgan Hazard
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
50'
Event
Enric Llansana
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Mario Stroeykens → Adriano Bertaccini
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Aleksandar Stanković
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Christos Tzolis
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
37'
Event
Aleksandar Stanković
Header / 2nd Goal
29'
Event
Kyriani Sabbe
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Club Brugge exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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