Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Fri, 10 Apr - 6:30 PM
La Liga 2
Ceuta Ceuta
0 – 0
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Ceuta and Real Sociedad II has finished in a 0-0 draw. Pre-match forecasts positioned Ceuta as favorites with a 48 percent likelihood of victory, while Real Sociedad II were given just a 25 percent chance of winning and the draw sat at 27 percent. The goalless result therefore marked a significant deviation from expectations, particularly for Real Sociedad II. Although listed as the stronger team coming into the fixture, the visitors were unable to turn that edge into a win and instead claimed a hard-earned point on the road. Ceuta enjoyed the greater share of possession at 59 percent to 41 percent, yet neither side could generate clear dominance. No xG figures were recorded, so direct alignment with expected goals cannot be measured; however, the efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns and the outcome ultimately diverged from the pre-match projection. No red cards were shown and the contest remained even at half-time, with neither team able to break the deadlock in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Sociedad II showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Arcediano Monescillo
D. Arcediano Monescillo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
S. Sanz Torcal
S. Sanz Torcal
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
P. Morales Moreno
P. Morales Moreno
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
C. Valverde Monsalve
C. Valverde Monsalve
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.91
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Real Sociedad II J. Ansotegi Gorostola
J. Ansotegi Gorostola
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: L
Burgos Rank: D
Cádiz Rank: W
Leganés Rank: L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
SD Eibar Rank: L
Almería Rank: L
Granada Rank: L
Córdoba Rank: W
Castellón Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
48.13%
Draw
26.65%
Away Real Sociedad II
25.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ceuta
+43.73%
Draw
-64.92%
Real Sociedad II
+21.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.03
23.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Real Sociedad II
Power Score
21.03
23.73
League Position
10
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Sociedad II — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Real Sociedad II

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Sociedad II

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad II
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.41
42.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.80
29.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ceuta -1.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Sociedad II +1.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Real Sociedad II
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ceuta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad II
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ceuta Real Sociedad II
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ceuta Real Sociedad II
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ceuta
Real Sociedad II
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ceuta
vs
Real Sociedad II
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ceuta Real Sociedad II
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ceuta 0.32
Real Sociedad II 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ceuta Real Sociedad II
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ceuta 0.00
Real Sociedad II 0.00
Ceuta
Real Sociedad II
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Real Sociedad II had peak pressure around 91'.
  • Ceuta started the game with stronger pressure.
Ceuta Pressure Real Sociedad II Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Real Sociedad II reached the top pressure at 91' (71.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:02:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
Spain
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
A. Ahmed Ahmed
Spain
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed
C. Hernández Alarcón
Spain
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
D. González Cabanes
Spain
15 D. González Cabanes
J. Matos García
Spain
3 J. Matos García
J. Zalazar Martínez
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Zalazar Martínez
Y. Didi
Morocco
5 Y. Didi
M. Illescas Montaño
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
A. Bassinga
Substitution
26 A. Bassinga
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
K. Kone
Substitution
Kenya
22 K. Kone
E. Arana Aizpurua
Spain
13 E. Arana Aizpurua
U. Agote Aranburu
Spain
23 U. Agote Aranburu
K. Kita
Japan
15 K. Kita
U. Ayo Larrañaga
Spain
39 U. Ayo Larrañaga
A. Dadie Izagirre
Spain
22 A. Dadie Izagirre
M. Rodriguez Carrasco
Spain
8 M. Rodriguez Carrasco
J. Oleaga Arregi
Spain
34 J. Oleaga Arregi
G. Gorosabel Añorga
Substitution
Spain
16 G. Gorosabel Añorga
A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
G. Carrera Zarranz
Spain
18 G. Carrera Zarranz
D. Díaz Gándara
Substitution
Spain
7 D. Díaz Gándara

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity
6500
Attendance
4964
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo
Samuel Sanz Torcal
Pablo Morales Moreno
Christian Arlex Valverde Monsalve

Statistics

Possession
Ceuta
55%
Real Sociedad II
45%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 31
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 3
25 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 3
23 Throwins 22
0 Hit Woodwork 1
8 Goal Kicks 7
74 Ball Safe 63
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 68
13 Successful Dribbles 15
21 Dribble Attempts 22
5 Goal Attempts 12

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
92 Attacks 96

Possession

343 Successful Passes 195
45 Long Passes 62
20 Successful Long Passes 28
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
83 Successful Passes Percentage 71
11 Key Passes 10
412 Passes 274

Defensive

2 Saves 4
14 Tackles 19
11 Interceptions 12

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 18
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

17 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
3
José Matos
José Matos Defender
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Defender
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Defender
15
Diego González
Diego González Defender
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Midfielder
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar Midfielder
20
José Campaña
José Campaña
Midfielder66'
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
22
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Kialy Abdoul Kone Attacker
27
Marc Domènech
Marc Domènech
Attacker76'
26
Aboubacar Bassinga
Aboubacar Bassinga Attacker
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente
Attacker46'
Referee : Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Starting XI ▼

13
Egoitz Arana
Egoitz Arana Goalkeeper
15
Kazunari Kita
Kazunari Kita Defender
22
Alberto Dadie
Alberto Dadie Defender
23
Unax Agote
Unax Agote Defender
39
Unax Larrañaga
Unax Larrañaga Defender
8
Mikel Rodriguez
Mikel Rodriguez Midfielder
10
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Midfielder
26
Darío Ramírez
Darío Ramírez
Attacker90'
16
Gorka Gorosabel
Gorka Gorosabel Midfielder
21
Joni Eceiza
Joni Eceiza
Midfielder68'
34
Joan Oleaga
Joan Oleaga Midfielder
7
Dani Díaz
Dani Díaz Attacker
17
Lander Astiazaran
Lander Astiazaran
Midfielder75'
18
Gorka Carrera
Gorka Carrera Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Darío Ramírez → Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Joan Oleaga
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Marc Domènech → Kialy Abdoul Kone
5th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Lander Astiazaran → Dani Díaz
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Joni Eceiza → Gorka Gorosabel
3rd Substitution
Event
José Campaña → Kuki Zalazar
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Diego González
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
60'
60'
Event
Kazunari Kita
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
52'
Event
Unax Larrañaga
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Konrad de la Fuente → Aboubacar Bassinga
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
11'
Event
Gorka Gorosabel
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'
Event
7th Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Sociedad II exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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