Cesena vs Südtirol Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Mon, 6 Apr - 10:30 AM
Serie B
Cesena CES
1 – 1
Südtirol SUD
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 10:30 AM
Round 33 Regular Season
Federico Davi - 17' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Fabian Tait - 3'

CONTEXT

The match between Cesena and Südtirol has officially finished, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Both teams found their attacking footing early, going into half-time locked at one goal apiece, and neither side could find a decisive winner in the second half. The contest remained disciplined, with zero red cards issued to impact the overall flow of play. Cesena heavily controlled the tempo, commanding a massive 71% of the possession while Südtirol managed just 29% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was entirely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the drawn outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. Despite the stark disparity in possession, the overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be completely in line with standard performance expectations. Heading into the fixture, pre-match markets favored the home side, giving Cesena a 42.9% probability of winning, compared to a 29% chance for a draw and 28.1% for a Südtirol victory. Consequently, the draw meant the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market expectations. This result produced a significant deviation level of 71% favoring Südtirol, who absorbed the sustained pressure to secure a resilient away point.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Südtirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Santarossa
D. Santarossa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
C. Allegretta
C. Allegretta
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Sacchi
G. Sacchi
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
T. Miniutti
T. Miniutti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
VS
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Mantova Rank: 50 L
Frosinone Rank: 64 D
Modena Rank: 58 D
Monza Rank: 65 L
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: 65 L
Avellino Rank: 51 L
Pescara Rank: 46 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 L
Reggiana Rank: 46 W
Venezia Rank: 70 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cesena
42.94%
Draw
28.96%
Away Südtirol
28.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.97
54.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cesena
Südtirol
Power Score
53.97
54.79
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
645
621

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Südtirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Südtirol
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.96
43.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.10
17.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cesena -2.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Südtirol +2.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Südtirol
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Südtirol
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cesena Südtirol
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cesena Südtirol
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Südtirol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cesena
vs
Südtirol
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cesena Südtirol
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cesena 0.31
Südtirol 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cesena Südtirol
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cesena 0.02
Südtirol 0.03
Cesena
Südtirol
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home
3 matches
Südtirol SUD Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:01:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
J. Klinsmann
United States
33 J. Klinsmann
A. Ciofi
Italy
15 A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
M. Piacentini
Italy
26 M. Piacentini
T. Corazza
Italy
27 T. Corazza
D. Bisoli
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
S. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
10 S. Bastoni
R. Ciervo
Substitution
Italy
11 R. Ciervo
T. Berti
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Berti
C. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
A. Cerri
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Cerri
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
N. Pietrangeli
Italy
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Davi
Substitution
Italy
23 F. Davi
K. Zedadka
France
7 K. Zedadka
D. Casiraghi
Italy
17 D. Casiraghi
S. Tronchin
Substitution
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
F. Tait
Substitution
Italy
21 F. Tait
S. Molina
Substitution
Italy
79 S. Molina
S. Merkaj
Albania
33 S. Merkaj
R. Tonin
Substitution
Italy
11 R. Tonin

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
Capacity
20194
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Davide Santarossa
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Gabriele Sacchi
Thomas Miniutti

Statistics

Possession
CES
66%
SUD
34%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 5
35 Dangerous attacks 50
71 Possession 29
4 Corners 6
17 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

15 Throwins 17
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
9 Dribble Attempts 6
6 Successful Dribbles 2
0 Assists 1
9 Goal Kicks 6
62 Ball Safe 52
7 Goal Attempts 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

95 Attacks 92
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

629 Passes 244
547 Successful Passes 156
69 Long Passes 57
8 Key Passes 7
87 Successful Passes Percentage 64
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
39 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

12 Interceptions 6
55 Duels Won 30
10 Tackles 9
0 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 19
3 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

10 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

33
Jonathan Klinsmann
Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Defender
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini Defender
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Defender
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
99
Gianluca Frabotta
Gianluca Frabotta
Defender63'
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni Midfielder
4
Michele Castagnetti
Michele Castagnetti
Midfielder63'
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder
17
Ibrahima Papa Wade
Ibrahima Papa Wade
Midfielder83'
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri
Attacker71'
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni
Attacker71'
Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Defender
23
Federico Davi
Federico Davi Defender
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Defender55'
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Midfielder
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi
Defender85'
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Midfielder
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio
Midfielder63'
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj
Midfielder85'
11
Riccardo Tonin
Riccardo Tonin Attacker
90
Raphael Odogwu
Raphael Odogwu
Attacker54'
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Simone Davi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Simone Davi → Simone Tronchin
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Domen Črnigoj → Salvatore Molina
9th Substitution
Event
Ibrahima Papa Wade → Riccardo Ciervo
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Marco Olivieri → Tommaso Berti
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Alberto Cerri
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Gianluca Frabotta → Cristian Shpendi
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Michele Castagnetti → Simone Bastoni
3rd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Marco Frigerio → Fabian Tait
5th Substitution
55'
Event
Hamza El Kaouakibi → Federico Davi
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Raphael Odogwu → Riccardo Tonin
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
4th Yellowcard
43'
Event
Federico Davi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Federico Davi
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
17'
6'
Event
Salvatore Molina
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
3'
Event
Fabian Tait
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Südtirol exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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