Celta de Vigo vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Europa League
Olympique Lyonnais
LYO
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match has finished with a full-time score of Celta de Vigo 0 - 1 Olympique Lyonnais. This outcome defied pre-match expectations, where Celta de Vigo was favored with a 50.4% implied win probability compared to Lyonnais's 22.6%, alongside a 27% chance of a draw. The final result represented a significant deviation (77.4%) toward Olympique Lyonnais, meaning the outcome was not aligned with the initial market projections. The flow of the game was heavily impacted by a red card issued to Celta de Vigo. This critical event caused a clear second-half distortion, allowing Olympique Lyonnais to completely dictate the tempo and dominate the ball. The visitors finished with an overwhelming 71% possession compared to the hosts' 29%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both sides in this fixture, an alignment between xG and the final outcome cannot be assessed. Despite the lack of xG metrics, the team's efficiency shift was in line with the final result, reflecting the visitors' overall control after the sending-off. Ultimately, Olympique Lyonnais maximized their numerical advantage to overcome their underdog status and secure the away victory.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Olympique Lyonnais showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
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Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Celta de Vigo
Olympique Lyonnais
Team Power Ranking
i
81.84
82.03
Celta de Vigo
Olympique Lyonnais
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Celta de Vigo
Olympique Lyonnais
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Celta de Vigo
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Celta de Vigo
⚠ Proxy
Celta de Vigo
Olympique Lyonnais
Celta de Vigo
Olympique Lyonnais
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-13T01:03:06+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary