Castellón vs Almería Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Thu, 2 Apr - 6:00 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
2 Winner 0
Almería ALM
Full Time Thu, 2 Apr 6:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Ronaldo - 34'
Pablo Santiago - 90+3'
Goal
|
Tincho Conde 89' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Castellón securing a 2-0 victory over Almería after holding a narrow 1-0 lead at half-time. Heading into the fixture, the pre-match market favored the home side with a 49.2% probability of winning, compared to a 24.6% chance for a draw and 26.2% for an Almería victory. The final outcome aligned perfectly with these market expectations. However, securing the win still represented a significant deviation for Castellón against a squad considered to be the stronger team on paper. On the pitch, Almería controlled the tempo with 55% possession, leaving Castellón to operate efficiently with their 45% share of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with underlying chance creation. Nonetheless, the overall efficiency shift remained entirely in line with expectations. The flow of the game was notably impacted by a major disciplinary incident. Castellón was forced to play with a numerical disadvantage after receiving a red card. This ejection created a distinct red card distortion in the second half, though the resilient hosts successfully absorbed the pressure to maintain their clean sheet and seal the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Castellón showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. García Aguilera
S. García Aguilera
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
M. Barroso Galán
M. Barroso Galán
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
M. Ibáñez Juárez
M. Ibáñez Juárez
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
E. Mallo Fernández
E. Mallo Fernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 D
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 61 L
Racing Santander Rank: 70 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 W
Albacete Rank: 66 D
Córdoba Rank: 60 W
FC Andorra Rank: 62 W
Cádiz Rank: 59 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
49.23%
Draw
24.61%
Away Almería
26.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.4
69.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Almería
Power Score
66.4
69.57
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
273
198

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.33
15.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.91
48.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Castellón +3.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Almería -3.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Almería
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Castellón Almería
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Castellón Almería
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Almería
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
9 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
3
Goals
16
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
16
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-03T00:00:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
J. Mellot
France
22 J. Mellot
F. Brignani
Italy
3 F. Brignani
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
L. Alcázar Moreno
Substitution
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
P. Santiago López
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
R. Pompeu da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
A. Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
A. Calatrava Torrado
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
Substitution
France
9 O. Camara
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
A. Centelles Plaza
Spain
20 A. Centelles Plaza
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
R. Ely
Substitution
Brazil
5 R. Ely
N. Macedo Monte
Portugal
4 N. Macedo Monte
D. Chirino
Curaçao
22 D. Chirino
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
S. Dzodic
Substitution
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
L. Carrilho Baptistão
Substitution
Brazil
12 L. Carrilho Baptistão
S. Njoh Soko
Substitution
Cameroon
19 S. Njoh Soko

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 02, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity
15500
Attendance
12412
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel García Aguilera
Marcos Barroso Galán
Marcelo Ibáñez Juárez
E. Mallo Fernández

Statistics

Possession
Castellón
49%
ALM
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 35
45 Possession 55
8 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 4
76 Ball Safe 83
8 Successful Dribbles 8
9 Dribble Attempts 23
6 Goal Kicks 10
89 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
5 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 22

Attacking

88 Attacks 73
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 82
281 Successful Passes 358
39 Long Passes 54
17 Successful Long Passes 22
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
10 Key Passes 4
345 Passes 435

Defensive

48 Duels Won 44
21 Tackles 11
10 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
18 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

16 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : E. Mallo Fernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Defender
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
2
Tincho Conde
Tincho Conde
Defender45+1'
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Defender
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
14
Raúl Sánchez
Raúl Sánchez
Attacker84'
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder56'
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
23
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Attacker84'
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero
Midfielder84'
Referee : E. Mallo Fernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
4
Nélson Monte
Nélson Monte Defender
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente
Attacker46'
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
20
Álex Centelles
Álex Centelles Defender
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino Defender
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba
Attacker74'
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
6
André Horta
André Horta
Midfielder74'
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Attacker
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder67'
19
Patrick Soko
Patrick Soko Attacker
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker59'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Pablo Santiago
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+3'
Event
Tincho Conde
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
89'
Event
Israel Suero → Álex Calatrava
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Álvaro García → Ousmane Camara
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Raúl Sánchez → Adam Jakobsen
9th Substitution
84'
77'
Event
Daijiro Chirino
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
76'
Event
André Horta
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Tincho Conde
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
75'
74'
Event
Adrián Embarba → Sergio Arribas
6th Substitution
74'
Event
André Horta → Stefan Dzodic
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Nico Melamed → Léo Baptistão
5th Substitution
59'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Patrick Soko
4th Substitution
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Ronaldo
3rd Substitution
56'
54'
Event
Federico Bonini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Miguel de la Fuente → Rodrigo Ely
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Tincho Conde → Lucas Alcázar
1st Substitution
45+1'
Event
Ronaldo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Ronaldo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
34'
24'
Event
Stefan Dzodic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Castellón exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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