Calcio Padova vs Palermo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Euganeo Sat, 21 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Calcio Padova PAD
0 Winner 1
Palermo PAL
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mattia Bani - 90+2'
Christian Pastina 90+6' Second yellow card
|
Red Card Rui Modesto 25'

CONTEXT

The match between Calcio Padova and Palermo has officially finished, with Palermo securing a 1-0 away victory after a scoreless first half. The result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the visitors. Palermo entered the contest with a 57.6% win probability, compared to Padova's 19% and a 23.4% chance of a draw. This outcome represented a significant deviation level of 42.4% favoring Palermo. Despite suffering a home defeat, Calcio Padova controlled the tempo, holding a dominant 66% possession against Palermo's 34%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final score was consistent with the xG differential. However, the match's efficiency shift was completely in line with pre-game projections, highlighting Palermo's ability to maximize their limited chances. The dynamics of the match were significantly altered by disciplinary issues, leading to a noticeable red card distortion in the second half. Both teams were forced to navigate the late stages of the game with ten men after each side received a red card. Ultimately, Palermo handled the turbulent conditions effectively to validate their status as the stronger team and claim the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Calcio Padova M. Andreoletti
M. Andreoletti
VS
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 52 D
Modena Rank: 60 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 D
Sampdoria Rank: 52 L
Carrarese Rank: 55 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: 49 W
Pescara Rank: 48 L
Südtirol Rank: 55 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Sampdoria Rank: 52 D
Empoli Rank: 57 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Calcio Padova
18.98%
Draw
23.38%
Away Palermo
57.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48
63.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Calcio Padova
Palermo
Power Score
48
63.58
League Position
13
4
Global Rank
807
372

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Calcio Padova Palermo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.52
40.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.15
26.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Calcio Padova -1.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Palermo +1.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Palermo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Calcio Padova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Calcio Padova Palermo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Calcio Padova Palermo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Calcio Padova
Palermo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Calcio Padova PAD Home
5 matches
Palermo PAL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
2
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Sorrentino
Italy
22 A. Sorrentino
F. Belli
Substitution
Italy
4 F. Belli
C. Pastina
Italy
58 C. Pastina
M. Perrotta
Italy
5 M. Perrotta
A. Capelli
Italy
17 A. Capelli
P. Fusi
Substitution
Italy
8 P. Fusi
K. Varas Marcillo
Ecuador
7 (C) K. Varas Marcillo
F. Di Mariano
Italy
77 F. Di Mariano
P. Ghiglione
Substitution
Italy
18 P. Ghiglione
M. Bortolussi
Substitution
Italy
20 M. Bortolussi
K. Lasagna
Italy
15 K. Lasagna
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
P. Ceccaroni
Substitution
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
M. Bani
Italy
13 (C) M. Bani
R. Muati Modesto
Angola
18 R. Muati Modesto
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
J. Segre
Substitution
Italy
8 J. Segre
N. Pierozzi
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
D. Johnsen
Substitution
Norway
7 D. Johnsen
A. Palumbo
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
J. Pohjanpalo
Substitution
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Capacity
32420
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Livio Marinelli
Gilberto Laghezza
Pasquale Capaldo
Gianluca Renzi

Statistics

Possession
PAD
62%
PAL
38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 1
70 Dangerous attacks 53
66 Possession 34
9 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 4
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
68 Ball Safe 58
17 Dribble Attempts 16
11 Successful Dribbles 7
19 Throwins 20
7 Goal Kicks 7
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
112 Attacks 81

Possession

58 Long Passes 50
28 Successful Long Passes 17
437 Successful Passes 199
12 Key Passes 8
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
513 Passes 266
85 Successful Passes Percentage 75

Defensive

0 Saves 2
4 Interceptions 5
14 Tackles 6

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 20
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

5 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
6.55
4
Francesco Belli
Francesco Belli Defender
7.17
92
Cristian Buonaiuto
Cristian Buonaiuto
Attacker80'
6.65
5
Marco Perrotta
Marco Perrotta Defender
7.12
58
Christian Pastina
Christian Pastina Defender
6.2
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas (C) Midfielder
7.44
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
6.68
10
Papu Gómez
Papu Gómez
Midfielder58'
7.08
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli Midfielder
6.96
18
Paolo Ghiglione
Paolo Ghiglione Midfielder
6.36
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale
Defender65'
6.78
77
Francesco Di Mariano
Francesco Di Mariano Midfielder
7.2
15
Kevin Lasagna
Kevin Lasagna Attacker
6.86
20
Mattia Bortolussi
Mattia Bortolussi Attacker
6.96
24
Gianluca Caprari
Gianluca Caprari
Attacker64'
6.46
Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
7.2
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani (C) Defender
8.36
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto Defender
4.71
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
6.36
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani
Defender54'
6.96
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
6.73
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
6.48
17
Samuel Giovane
Samuel Giovane
Midfielder64'
6.39
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
7.2
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
6.45
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Attacker
6.86
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda
Defender46'
7
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen Attacker
6.34
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder78'
6.75
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
6.62
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron
Attacker64'
6.73

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christian Pastina
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+6'
90+2'
Event
Mattia Bani
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Christian Pastina
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Cristian Buonaiuto → Francesco Belli
9th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Dennis Johnsen
8th Substitution
Event
Giulio Favale → Paolo Ghiglione
7th Substitution
65'
Event
Gianluca Caprari → Mattia Bortolussi
4th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Jérémy Le Douaron → Joel Pohjanpalo
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Samuel Giovane → Jacopo Segre
6th Substitution
Event
Francesco Di Mariano
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Papu Gómez → Pietro Fusi
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Var
57'
54'
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Pietro Ceccaroni
2nd Substitution
48'
Event
Pietro Ceccaroni
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Patryk Peda → Antonio Palumbo
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Rui Modesto
Foul / 1st Redcard
24'
Event
Rui Modesto
Card adjusted

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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