Cagliari vs Napoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Sardegna Arena Fri, 20 Mar - 5:30 PM
Serie A
Cagliari CAG
0 Winner 1
Napoli NAP
Full Time Fri, 20 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Scott McTominay - 2'

CONTEXT

The match between Cagliari and Napoli has finished with a 1-0 full-time victory for the visiting side, Napoli. The visitors secured their winning goal in the first half and held on to that 1-0 lead through the final whistle. Coming into the game, Napoli were positioned as the clear favorites with a 54.8% probability of taking all three points, compared to a 27.7% chance of a draw and just 17.5% for a Cagliari win. The final result aligned with the pre-match market, representing a significant deviation in Napoli's favor based on the pre-game probabilities. Napoli dictated the tempo throughout the contest, controlling an impressive 67% of the possession while restricting Cagliari to just 33%. The away side's offensive superiority was clearly reflected in the expected goals (xG) metrics, as they generated 1.75 xG against Cagliari's quiet 0.54 xG. Consequently, the 1-0 outcome was perfectly consistent with the overall xG differential. Furthermore, the finishing from both sides was completely in line with their underlying efficiency metrics. The match concluded smoothly without any red cards, ensuring that disciplinary issues did not alter the tactical balance or impact the expected outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Napoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Cagliari F. Pisacane
F. Pisacane
VS
Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.89
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 71 D
Lazio Rank: 81 D
Lecce Rank: 69 L
Roma Rank: 84 L
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Fiorentina Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 74 W
Parma Rank: 71 D
Inter Rank: 90 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 D
Lazio Rank: 81 W
Cremonese Rank: 68 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 10 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cagliari
17.51%
Draw
27.65%
Away Napoli
54.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.67
86.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cagliari
Napoli
Power Score
69.67
86.6
League Position
15
3
Global Rank
207
27

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cagliari — Opponent-weighted form score
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cagliari Napoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cagliari

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Napoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cagliari ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Napoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.30
29.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.33
25.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cagliari -0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Napoli +0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cagliari
Napoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cagliari
vs
Napoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cagliari Napoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cagliari Napoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Cagliari
Napoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cagliari CAG Home
34 matches
Napoli NAP Away
Match Record
4
Wins
20
10
Draws
10
20
Losses
4
Goals
30
Goals Scored
68
68
Goals Conceded
30
-38
Goal Difference
+38
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:20:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
E. Caprile
Italy
1 E. Caprile
J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
Substitution
Portugal
32 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
Y. Mina González
Colombia
26 (C) Y. Mina González
A. Dossena
Italy
22 A. Dossena
M. Palestra
Italy
2 M. Palestra
M. Adopo
Substitution
France
8 M. Adopo
G. Gaetano
Italy
10 G. Gaetano
I. Sulemana
Ghana
25 I. Sulemana
J. Rodríguez Camejo
Substitution
Uruguay
15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
S. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 S. Esposito
M. Folorunsho
Substitution
Italy
90 M. Folorunsho
V. Milinković Savić
Serbia
32 V. Milinković Savić
M. Olivera Miramontes
Substitution
Uruguay
17 M. Olivera Miramontes
A. Buongiorno
Italy
4 A. Buongiorno
S. Beukema
Netherlands
31 S. Beukema
M. Gutiérrez Ortega
Spain
3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
S. Lobotka
Substitution
Slovakia
68 S. Lobotka
B. Gilmour
Substitution
Scotland
6 B. Gilmour
M. Politano
Substitution
Italy
21 (C) M. Politano
S. McTominay
Scotland
8 S. McTominay
K. De Bruyne
Belgium
11 K. De Bruyne
R. Højlund
Denmark
19 R. Højlund

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 20, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Sardegna Arena
Capacity
16416
Attendance
15620
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Maurizio Mariani
Daniele Bindoni
Alberto Tegoni
Mario Perri

Statistics

Possession
CAG
37%
NAP
63%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
0 Shots 5
27 Dangerous attacks 53
33 Possession 67
2 Corners 7
16 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

22 Throwins 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
6 Successful Headers 15
6 Goal Kicks 10
6 Dribble Attempts 14
2 Successful Dribbles 5
61 Ball Safe 73
7 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

76 Attacks 99
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

79 Successful Passes Percentage 90
29 Successful Long Passes 18
324 Passes 682
61 Long Passes 39
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
256 Successful Passes 613
4 Key Passes 12

Defensive

8 Interceptions 3
4 Saves 0
17 Tackles 9

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 14
1 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

1
Elia Caprile
Elia Caprile Goalkeeper
7.05
22
Alberto Dossena
Alberto Dossena Defender
6.79
26
Yerry Mina
Yerry Mina (C) Defender
7.52
32
Zé Pedro
Zé Pedro Defender
6.59
31
Paul Mendy
Paul Mendy
Attacker73'
6.84
2
Marco Palestra
Marco Palestra Midfielder
6.49
8
Michel Adopo
Michel Adopo Midfielder
6.4
14
Alessandro Deiola
Alessandro Deiola
Midfielder73'
6.54
10
Gianluca Gaetano
Gianluca Gaetano Midfielder
6.97
15
Juan Rodríguez
Juan Rodríguez Midfielder
6.74
18
Othniël Raterink
Othniël Raterink
Defender84'
6.39
25
Ibrahim Sulemana
Ibrahim Sulemana Midfielder
6.74
90
Michael Folorunsho
Michael Folorunsho Attacker
6.59
9
Semih Kılıçsoy
Semih Kılıçsoy
Attacker65'
6.49
94
Sebastiano Esposito
Sebastiano Esposito Attacker
7.07
37
Yael Trepy
Yael Trepy
Attacker84'
6.5
Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

32
Vanja Milinković-Savić
Vanja Milinković-Savić Goalkeeper
7.01
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender
7.2
17
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera Defender
6.54
5
Juan Jesus
Juan Jesus
Defender84'
6.35
31
Sam Beukema
Sam Beukema Defender
7.33
3
Miguel Gutiérrez
Miguel Gutiérrez Midfielder
6.82
6
Billy Gilmour
Billy Gilmour Midfielder
6.75
99
Frank Anguissa
Frank Anguissa
Midfielder77'
6.62
21
Matteo Politano
Matteo Politano (C) Midfielder
7.29
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
Leonardo Spinazzola
Defender77'
6.59
68
Stanislav Lobotka
Stanislav Lobotka Midfielder
6.48
27
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos
Attacker55'
6.78
8
Scott McTominay
Scott McTominay Attacker
7.27
11
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne Attacker
7.79
19
Rasmus Højlund
Rasmus Højlund Attacker
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alberto Dossena
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Yael Trepy → Sebastiano Esposito
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Othniël Raterink → Juan Rodríguez
8th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Juan Jesus → Mathías Olivera
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Frank Anguissa  → Billy Gilmour 
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Leonardo Spinazzola → Matteo Politano 
6th Substitution
Event
Alessandro Deiola → Michel Adopo
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Paul Mendy → Zé Pedro
4th Substitution
73'
69'
Event
Mathías Olivera
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Semih Kılıçsoy → Michael Folorunsho
2nd Substitution
65'
55'
Event
Alisson Santos → Stanislav Lobotka
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Zé Pedro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
17'
Event
Stanislav Lobotka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'
Event
Scott McTominay
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Scott McTominay from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana from Cagliari has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Cagliari earns a corner kick after Sam Beukema allows the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
Frank Anguissa from Napoli earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Alessandro Deiola from Cagliari is involved in a risky challenge.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Juan Jesus from Napoli committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the scoreline reading Cagliari 0, Napoli 1.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari has been shown a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Paul Mendy from Cagliari attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Yerry Mina after a swift counterattack.
90
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari commits a handball foul.
86
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli commits a handball.
85
Update Update
Offside call against Napoli. Rasmus Højlund has been caught offside.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Juan Jesus comes on in place of Mathías Olivera.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Othniël Raterink replaces Juan Rodríguez.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Yael Trepy replaces Sebastiano Esposito.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after a play that resulted in a deflection off Alberto Dossena.
79
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Scott McTominay from Napoli takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Frank Anguissa.
78
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari commits a foul.
78
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund of Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Leonardo Spinazzola replaces Matteo Politano.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Frank Anguissa comes on to replace Billy Gilmour.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Kevin De Bruyne from Napoli takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal and to the right. The assist came from Scott McTominay.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Paul Mendy from Cagliari attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Semih Kiliçsoy.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Paul Mendy replaces Zé Pedro.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Alessandro Deiola replaces Michel Adopo.
69
Update Update
Mathías Olivera from Napoli committed a foul.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathías Olivera from Napoli has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
69
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
68
Update Update
Mathías Olivera from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Update Update
Semih Kiliçsoy from Cagliari committed a foul.
67
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the top right corner following a corner kick.
66
Corner Corner
Cagliari has been awarded a corner kick after Alessandro Buongiorno allowed it to go out of play.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Cagliari: Semih Kiliçsoy is coming on to replace Michael Folorunsho.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Scott McTominay of Napoli attempts a header from the center of the box, but it sails high and to the left. The assist came from Kevin De Bruyne.
61
Update Update
Yerry Mina committed a foul against a Cagliari player.
61
Update Update
Alisson Santos from Napoli was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kevin De Bruyne from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Matteo Politano.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kevin De Bruyne from Napoli takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Gianluca Gaetano from Cagliari attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went off target. The assist came from Yerry Mina, who set him up with a header.
57
Update Update
Ibrahim Sulemana from Cagliari earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
57
Update Update
Kevin De Bruyne committed a foul against Napoli.
56
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Matteo Politano from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but Elia Caprile, the Cagliari goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Kevin De Bruyne.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Scott McTominay from Napoli fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
56
Update Update
Scott McTominay committed a foul against a Napoli player.
56
Update Update
Gianluca Gaetano from Cagliari earned a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Sam Beukema from Napoli committed a foul.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Alisson Santos replaces Stanislav Lobotka.
55
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Matteo Politano from Napoli took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed hitting the top left corner. The assist came from Kevin De Bruyne.
52
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Kevin De Bruyne from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Elia Caprile of Cagliari makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Matteo Politano.
47
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Update Update
Miguel Gutiérrez from Napoli committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Marco Palestra from Cagliari was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
47
Update Update
Mathías Olivera from Napoli committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Mathías Olivera from Napoli committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Miguel Gutiérrez from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Cagliari 0, Napoli 1.
45
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund committed a foul against a Napoli player.
45
Update Update
Yerry Mina from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Yerry Mina from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Cagliari 0, Napoli 1.
44
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after Marco Palestra allowed the ball to go out.
43
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari earned a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Update Update
Sam Beukema from Napoli committed a foul.
42
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Billy Gilmour from Napoli attempted a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Rasmus Højlund.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Yerry Mina allowed the ball to go out.
42
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Scott McTominay from Napoli attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Miguel Gutiérrez.
41
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
41
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Marco Palestra from Cagliari.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Zé Pedro allowed the ball to go out.
37
Update Update
Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Zé Pedro committed a foul against the player from Cagliari.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Zé Pedro from Cagliari has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
35
Update Update
Scott McTominay from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund from Napoli committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari commits a handball.
28
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund from Napoli committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli committed a foul.
21
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari attempted a right-footed shot from over 40 yards on the right flank, but it went wide to the left after a quick counterattack.
20
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Sebastiano Esposito from Cagliari attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
18
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
18
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Sam Beukema from Napoli earned a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Yerry Mina, who set him up with a header.
17
Update Update
Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari earned a free kick in an offensive position.
17
Update Update
Stanislav Lobotka from Napoli committed a foul.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stanislav Lobotka from Napoli has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
17
Update Update
The match is currently on hold due to an injury to Michael Folorunsho from Cagliari.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Yerry Mina allowed the ball to go out.
16
Update Update
Offside call against Napoli. Scott McTominay has been flagged for being offside.
15
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after Juan Rodríguez allowed the ball to go out.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rasmus Højlund from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Kevin De Bruyne.
15
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Scott McTominay of Napoli heads the ball from close range, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Matteo Politano, who delivered a cross.
14
Update Update
Zé Pedro from Cagliari has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Scott McTominay committed a foul against a Napoli player.
8
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Scott McTominay of Napoli attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
6
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort is underway. Matteo Politano from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Elia Caprile of Cagliari makes a great save, diving to the top right corner.
5
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund from Napoli was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
5
Update Update
Alberto Dossena from Cagliari committed a foul.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cagliari 0, Napoli 1. Scott McTominay scores for Napoli with a right-footed shot from close range, following a corner kick.
2
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, targeting the left side, but Elia Caprile of Cagliari makes a save, diving to the left corner. The assist came from Sam Beukema, who set it up with a header.
1
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after a deflection off Alberto Dossena.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Napoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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