Cádiz vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla Sat, 21 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga 2
Cádiz CAD
0 Winner 3
Málaga MLA
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Chupe - 22', 33'
Dani Lorenzo - 47'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Málaga securing a commanding 3-0 away victory over Cádiz. The visitors established their dominance early, taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into the half-time break and never looking back. With no red cards issued to either side, the game was contested at full numerical strength, allowing Málaga to dictate play without disruption. Pre-match market expectations slightly favored Málaga with a 39.4% implied probability of winning, while Cádiz held a 30.9% chance and a draw sat at 29.7%. Because the stronger team took all three points, the final outcome successfully aligned with the pre-match market. However, the one-sided scoreline represented a significant deviation level of 60.6% by Málaga, far exceeding the tight contest that the initial odds suggested. On the pitch, Málaga controlled the tempo by holding 54% of the possession compared to the hosts' 46%. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to measure the precise quality of scoring chances, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with the decisive result. Málaga efficiently capitalized on their extended periods on the ball, condemning Cádiz to a difficult home defeat.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Cádiz S. González Soriano
S. González Soriano
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.7
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 63 L
Burgos Rank: 67 D
Almería Rank: 70 L
Huesca Rank: 60 L
Granada Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 67 W
Albacete Rank: 67 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 63 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 W
Mirandés Rank: 59 L
Burgos Rank: 67 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cádiz
30.89%
Draw
29.67%
Away Málaga
39.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.17
68.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cádiz
Málaga
Power Score
61.17
68.83
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
452
222

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cádiz — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cádiz Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cádiz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cádiz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.48
40.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.56
18.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cádiz -2.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga +2.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cádiz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cádiz Málaga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cádiz Málaga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cádiz CAD Home
13 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
6
Goals
17
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
17
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Gil Mohedano
Spain
1 D. Gil Mohedano
I. Carcelén Valencia
Substitution
Spain
20 I. Carcelén Valencia
J. Moreno San Vidal
Spain
2 J. Moreno San Vidal
I. Ortega
Spain
6 I. Ortega
R. Pereira Vargas
Spain
33 R. Pereira Vargas
S. Ortuño Díaz
Spain
15 S. Ortuño Díaz
M. Diakité
Substitution
Mali
5 M. Diakité
J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
Substitution
Spain
11 (C) J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
Y. Diarra
Mali
18 Y. Diarra
Antonio Cordero
Substitution
16 Antonio Cordero
?. García Pascual
Substitution
23 ?. García Pascual
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 (C) A. Herrero Peinador
D. Rodríguez Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
18 D. Rodríguez Sánchez
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
Spain
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
I. Merino Rodríguez
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
D. Larrubia Romano
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
C. Ruiz Rubio
Substitution
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Substitution
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla
Capacity
20724
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gonzalo González Páez
Salvador Lax Franco
Carlos Grande Rabadán
Diego Fernández Correas

Statistics

Possession
CAD
44%
MLA
56%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 8
30 Dangerous attacks 38
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

20 Dribble Attempts 21
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
20 Throwins 18
14 Goal Kicks 9
76 Ball Safe 76
9 Successful Dribbles 13
0 Assists 2
7 Goal Attempts 14
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

79 Attacks 100
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

46 Long Passes 75
14 Successful Long Passes 43
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
340 Successful Passes 447
80 Successful Passes Percentage 86
425 Passes 518
5 Key Passes 17

Defensive

21 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 13
3 Saves 1

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

16 Fouls 7
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
David Gil
David Gil Goalkeeper
5.96
2
Jorge Moreno
Jorge Moreno Defender
6.39
6
Iker Recio
Iker Recio Defender
6.41
20
Iza Carcelén
Iza Carcelén Defender
6.7
19
José Antonio de la Rosa
José Antonio de la Rosa
Attacker76'
6.56
33
Raúl Pereira
Raúl Pereira Defender
6.17
5
Moussa Diakité
Moussa Diakité Midfielder
5.84
14
Bojan Kovacevic
Bojan Kovacevic
Defender46'
6.38
11
Suso
Suso (C) Midfielder
6.9
37
Jerónimo Dómina
Jerónimo Dómina
Attacker76'
6.42
15
Sergio Ortuño
Sergio Ortuño Midfielder
6.68
16
Antoñito Cordero
Antoñito Cordero Midfielder
6.03
17
Dawda Camara
Dawda Camara
Attacker46'
6.58
18
Yussi Diarra
Yussi Diarra Midfielder
6.36
23
García Pascual
García Pascual Attacker
6.2
9
Roger Martí
Roger Martí
Attacker68'
6.46
Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero (C) Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
7.36
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
7.44
18
Dani Sánchez
Dani Sánchez Defender
6.93
14
Víctor García
Víctor García
Defender65'
6.4
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
7.32
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
6.8
24
Julen Lobete
Julen Lobete
Attacker79'
6.96
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
7.06
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio
Attacker66'
6.53
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
8.15
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
6.98
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
2
8.81
17
Eneko Jauregi
Eneko Jauregi
Attacker79'
6.26
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Attacker
7.64
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa
Midfielder68'
7.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Roger Martí
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Jerónimo Dómina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
80'
79'
Event
Julen Lobete → David Larrubia
10th Substitution
79'
Event
Eneko Jauregi → Chupe
9th Substitution
Event
José Antonio de la Rosa → Iza Carcelén
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Jerónimo Dómina → Suso
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Roger Martí → García Pascual
5th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Aarón Ochoa → Carlos Dotor
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Josué Dorrio → Joaquín Muñoz
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Víctor García → Dani Sánchez
3rd Substitution
47'
Event
Dani Lorenzo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Bojan Kovacevic → Moussa Diakité
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Dawda Camara → Antoñito Cordero
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Chupe
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
22'
Event
Chupe
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Málaga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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