Burgos vs Ceuta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío Wed, 1 Apr - 6:00 PM
La Liga 2
Burgos BUR
1 – 1
Ceuta Ceuta
Full Time Wed, 1 Apr 6:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Mario González - 31'
Goal
|
Goal
Aboubacar Bassinga - 22'

CONTEXT

The match between Burgos and Ceuta has finished with a full-time score of 1-1. The game was evenly poised at the break, with both sides finding the back of the net to make it 1-1 at half-time. Play remained tightly contested throughout the ninety minutes, reflected by the narrow possession margins; Burgos held a slight edge with 51% of the ball compared to Ceuta's 49%. Neither team suffered any red cards to disrupt their tactical rhythm or personnel on the pitch. The final draw represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating a Burgos side that entered as the stronger team and clear favorites. Before kickoff, market probabilities gave Burgos a 48.7% chance of securing the victory, while a draw sat at 30.8% and a Ceuta win at 20.6%. Consequently, the result did not align with the pre-match market forecast. With expected goals (xG) data unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be definitively stated whether the outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall finishing efficiency shift was recorded as being exactly in line with the contest. No decisive second-half adjustments altered the game state, leaving the teams to share the points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Mira García
J. Mira García
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
R. Sánchez López
R. Sánchez López
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
J. Pardeiro Puente
J. Pardeiro Puente
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
J. Hernández García
J. Hernández García
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
VS
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.57
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: 60 W
Racing Santander Rank: 70 L
Cádiz Rank: 59 D
Las Palmas Rank: 69 D
Leganés Rank: 66 W
Málaga Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 66 L
Las Palmas Rank: 68 L
Mirandés Rank: 58 W
Córdoba Rank: 60 W
Granada Rank: 67 W
Huesca Rank: 58 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burgos
48.7%
Draw
30.75%
Away Ceuta
20.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.2
56.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burgos
Ceuta
Power Score
67.2
56.52
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
255
440

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burgos Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.27
15.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.41
21.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Burgos +0.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Ceuta -0.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Ceuta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burgos Ceuta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burgos Ceuta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Ceuta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burgos BUR Home
1 matches
Ceuta Ceuta Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-02T00:00:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
A. Buñuel Redrado
Spain
15 A. Buñuel Redrado
O. Luengo Redondo
Spain
3 O. Luengo Redondo
S. del Cerro García
Spain
28 S. del Cerro García
B. Martínez Prado
Substitution
Spain
22 B. Martínez Prado
F. Garcia Murillo
Substitution
Spain
31 F. Garcia Murillo
M. Expósito Jiménez
Substitution
Spain
33 M. Expósito Jiménez
I. Ruiz
Spain
23 I. Ruiz
I. Córdoba Kerejeta
Substitution
Spain
21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta
V. Mollejo Carpintero
Spain
11 V. Mollejo Carpintero
M. González Gutiérrez
Substitution
Spain
20 M. González Gutiérrez
G. Vallejo Delgado
Spain
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
D. González Cabanes
Spain
15 D. González Cabanes
C. Hernández Alarcón
Spain
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
A. Caparrós Guzmán
Spain
4 A. Caparrós Guzmán
J. Matos García
Spain
3 J. Matos García
M. Illescas Montaño
Substitution
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
Y. Didi
Substitution
Morocco
5 Y. Didi
M. Sánchez García
Substitution
Spain
2 M. Sánchez García
K. Kone
Substitution
Kenya
22 K. Kone
A. Bassinga
Substitution
26 A. Bassinga
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 01, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Capacity
12194
Attendance
11042
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jesús Manuel Mira García
Rafael Sánchez López
José Alberto Pardeiro Puente
José Hernández García

Statistics

Possession
BUR
51%
Ceuta
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
0 Shots 2
57 Dangerous attacks 51
51 Possession 49
8 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 3
7 Goal Attempts 2
85 Ball Safe 78
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
18 Throwins 18
13 Dribble Attempts 24
6 Successful Dribbles 13
7 Goal Kicks 9

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
86 Attacks 97

Possession

48 Long Passes 49
29 Successful Long Passes 19
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
347 Successful Passes 340
83 Successful Passes Percentage 82
418 Passes 416
7 Key Passes 4

Defensive

0 Saves 2
48 Duels Won 59
21 Tackles 17
6 Interceptions 7

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

6 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
3
Oier Luengo
Oier Luengo Defender
15
Aitor Buñuel
Aitor Buñuel Defender
22
Brais Martínez
Brais Martínez Defender
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel
Defender81'
28
Saúl del Cerro
Saúl del Cerro Defender
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez
Midfielder71'
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Midfielder
31
Fermín García
Fermín García Midfielder
14
David González
David González
Midfielder63'
33
Marcelo Expósito
Marcelo Expósito Midfielder
4
Pablo Galdames
Pablo Galdames
Midfielder46'
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo Attacker
20
Mario González
Mario González Attacker
10
Kévin Appin
Kévin Appin
Midfielder71'
Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
4
Albert Caparrós
Albert Caparrós Defender
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Defender
15
Diego González
Diego González Defender
2
Manu Sánchez
Manu Sánchez Midfielder
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar
Attacker46'
3
José Matos
José Matos Midfielder
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Midfielder
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger
Midfielder81'
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
20
José Campaña
José Campaña
Midfielder88'
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
22
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Kialy Abdoul Kone Attacker
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente
Attacker81'
26
Aboubacar Bassinga
Aboubacar Bassinga Attacker
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Aisar Ahmed
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
José Campaña → Marino Illescas
10th Substitution
Event
Florian Miguel → Brais Martínez
9th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Konrad de la Fuente → Kialy Abdoul Kone
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Yann Bodiger → Youness Lachhab
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Youness Lachhab
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kévin Appin → Mario González
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Curro Sánchez → Iñigo Córdoba
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Oier Luengo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
David González → Fermín García
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Var
58'
Event
Pablo Galdames → Marcelo Expósito
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Aisar Ahmed → Aboubacar Bassinga
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kuki Zalazar → Manu Sánchez
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marcelo Expósito
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Mario González
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
22'
Event
Aboubacar Bassinga
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Burgos exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews