Brann vs Tromsø Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Brann Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 4:00 PM
Eliteserien
Brann SKB
1 Winner 2
Tromsø Tromsø
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
Felix Horn Myhre - 43'
Goal
|
Goal
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd - 10'
Daniel Braut - 47'

CONTEXT

The match between Brann and Tromsø has finished, with Tromsø securing a 0-1 victory at full-time. Despite the sides being perfectly even at the half-time break, the visitors eventually proved to be the stronger team to claim the win. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Brann entered the contest as the clear market favorites with a 49

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Brann F. Alexandersson
F. Alexandersson
VS
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kristiansund Rank: 54 L
HamKam Rank: 60 W
Molde Rank: 65 L
KFUM Rank: 58 D
Bryne Rank: 56 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredrikstad Rank: 62 W
Kristiansund Rank: 56 W
Rosenborg Rank: 62 W
Sandefjord Rank: 61 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 62 W
Haugesund Rank: 43 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brann
49.33%
Draw
26.78%
Away Tromsø
23.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.38
68.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brann
Tromsø
Power Score
67.38
68.01
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
261
243

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brann — Opponent-weighted form score
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brann Tromsø

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brann

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brann ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tromsø
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.82
35.77
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.77
20.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brann -1.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Tromsø +1.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brann
Tromsø
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brann
vs
Tromsø
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brann Tromsø
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brann Tromsø
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Brann
Tromsø
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brann SKB Home
34 matches
Tromsø Tromsø Away
Match Record
13
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
13
Goals
49
Goals Scored
47
47
Goals Conceded
49
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Dyngeland
Norway
1 M. Dyngeland
D. De Roeve
Belgium
21 D. De Roeve
F. Pallesen Knudsen
Norway
3 (C) F. Pallesen Knudsen
N. Boakye
Substitution
4 N. Boakye
J. Soltvedt
Norway
17 J. Soltvedt
T. Pedersen
Substitution
Norway
23 T. Pedersen
J. Sørensen
Denmark
18 J. Sørensen
F. Horn Myhre
Norway
8 F. Horn Myhre
B. Finne
Substitution
Norway
11 B. Finne
N. Holm
Norway
29 N. Holm
J. Thorsteinsson
Substitution
Iceland
7 J. Thorsteinsson
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
A. Warneryd
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
I. Vådebu
Norway
30 I. Vådebu
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
L. Jean Cornic
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
L. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
7 L. Larsen
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 (C) R. Yttergård Jenssen
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
D. Braut
Substitution
Norway
9 D. Braut
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Brann Stadion
Capacity
17686
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rohit Saggi
Jan Morten Tennøy
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Morten Jensen

Statistics

Possession
SKB
58%
Tromsø
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 12
54 Dangerous attacks 39
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 9
13 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 13
37 Throwins 24
7 Successful Dribbles 7
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 70
1 Assists 1
91 Ball Safe 66
4 Goal Attempts 7
10 Dribble Attempts 10
4 Substitutions 3
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

130 Attacks 85
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

80 Long Passes 87
7 Key Passes 7
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
76 Successful Passes Percentage 65
523 Passes 329
396 Successful Passes 214
31 Successful Long Passes 37

Defensive

6 Interceptions 9
19 Tackles 10
3 Saves 2

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
22 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

12 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

1
Mathias Dyngeland
Mathias Dyngeland Goalkeeper
6.48
3
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen (C) Defender
7.09
4
Nana Kwame Boakye
Nana Kwame Boakye Defender
6.85
43
Rasmus Holten
Rasmus Holten
Defender45+3'
6.66
17
Joachim Soltvedt
Joachim Soltvedt Defender
6.38
21
Denzel De Roeve
Denzel De Roeve Defender
7.03
8
Felix Horn Myhre
Felix Horn Myhre Midfielder
7.1
18
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Jacob Lungi Sørensen Midfielder
7.45
23
Thore Pedersen
Thore Pedersen Midfielder
6.95
10
K. Ingason
K. Ingason
Attacker59'
6.48
7
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Attacker
6.74
32
Markus Haaland
Markus Haaland
Midfielder59'
6.62
11
Bård Finne
Bård Finne Attacker
7.15
14
Ulrik Mathisen
Ulrik Mathisen
Midfielder59'
6.3
29
Noah Holm
Noah Holm Attacker
7.03
Referee : Rohit Saggi

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
6.93
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
7.15
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
6.86
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
6.97
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
7.29
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu Defender
7.16
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.1
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Midfielder
6.74
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Defender90+2'
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen (C) Midfielder
6.16
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut Attacker
7.13
15
V. Ekblom
V. Ekblom
Attacker70'
6.44
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
7.18
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Midfielder80'
6.1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh → Lars Olden Larsen
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer → Heine Åsen Larsen
6th Substitution
70'
Event
V. Ekblom → Daniel Braut
5th Substitution
Event
Noah Holm
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Markus Haaland → Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Ulrik Mathisen → Bård Finne
4th Substitution
59'
Event
K. Ingason → Thore Pedersen
3rd Substitution
59'
54'
Event
Lars Olden Larsen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Daniel Braut
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Rasmus Holten → Nana Kwame Boakye
1st Substitution
45+3'
Event
Felix Horn Myhre
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
43'
38'
Event
Tobias Guddal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
Event
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Tromsø exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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