Bologna vs Roma Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Europa League
Roma
ROM
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Bologna and Roma has officially finished, concluding in a tightly contested 1-1 draw after a goalless first half. Pre-match market indicators slightly favored Roma as the stronger team, giving them a 37.1% implied probability of an away victory, compared to Bologna's 31.6% and a 31.3% chance of a draw. Because Roma failed to secure the full three points, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Consequently, this draw represents a significant deviation from expectations, with the deviation primarily falling on Roma. The action on the pitch was exceptionally balanced, which was clearly reflected in the possession statistics. Bologna managed a fractional advantage, holding 51% of the ball compared to Roma's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it is impossible to assess whether the final scoreline aligned with the underlying shot quality. Despite the unexpected outcome, the overall efficiency shift for both clubs remained in line with standard statistical projections. Finally, the match proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either team.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Roma showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Bologna
Roma
Team Power Ranking
i
78.97
84.34
Bologna
Roma
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Bologna
Roma
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Bologna
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Bologna
⚠ Proxy
Bologna
Roma
Bologna
Roma
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-13T00:56:17+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary