Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Andrew's Stadium Wed, 11 Mar - 7:45 PM
Championship
Birmingham City BRC
1 Winner 0
Queens Park Rangers QPR
Full Time Wed, 11 Mar 7:45 PM
Patrick Roberts - 6'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Birmingham City and Queens Park Rangers has officially finished, with Birmingham securing a 1-0 victory after taking a 1-0 lead into halftime. The final outcome aligned perfectly with pre-match market expectations, which had Birmingham as the clear favorite with a 56.1% probability of winning, compared to a 25.2% chance of a draw and just 18.7% for a QPR upset. Ultimately, the result represented a significant

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Birmingham City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Backhouse
A. Backhouse
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
P. Hodskinson
P. Hodskinson
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
D. Leach
D. Leach
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
James Linington
James Linington
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 12.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
VS
Queens Park Rangers J. Stéphan
J. Stéphan
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 55 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 D
Coventry City Rank: 74 W
Watford Rank: 67 L
Southampton Rank: 72 D
Derby County Rank: 71 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United Rank: 62 D
Stoke City Rank: 68 D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 55 W
Norwich City Rank: 71 L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 64 L
Portsmouth Rank: 66 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 5 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Birmingham City
56.08%
Draw
25.24%
Away Queens Park Rangers
18.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.73
63.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Birmingham City
Queens Park Rangers
Power Score
63.73
63.13
League Position
10
18
Global Rank
178
360

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Queens Park Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Birmingham City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Queens Park Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Birmingham City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.41
27.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.02
42.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Birmingham City +1.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Queens Park Rangers -1.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Birmingham City
Queens Park Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Birmingham City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Birmingham City Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Birmingham City
Queens Park Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Birmingham City BRC Home
9 matches
Queens Park Rangers QPR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
8
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-12T00:02:20+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 11, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
St. Andrew's Stadium
Capacity
29409
Attendance
25212
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Backhouse
Paul Hodskinson
Daniel Leach
James Linington

Statistics

Possession
BRC
57%
QPR
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 5
72 Dangerous attacks 27
58 Possession 42
10 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 9
4 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
18 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Successful Dribbles 4
21 Throwins 20
18 Successful Headers 24
1 Assists 0
7 Goal Kicks 8
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
14 Goal Attempts 7
97 Ball Safe 115
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

120 Attacks 103
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 77
57 Long Passes 54
430 Successful Passes 284
15 Key Passes 9
25 Successful Long Passes 21
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
513 Passes 370

Defensive

6 Interceptions 6
16 Tackles 15
1 Saves 5
49 Duels Won 52

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 11
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Demarai Gray
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Kyogo Furuhashi → Jay Stansfield
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
James Beadle
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
79'
Event
Isaac Hayden → Jake Clarke-Salter
9th Substitution
Event
Kanya Fujimoto → Marvin Ducksch
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Carlos Vicente → Patrick Roberts
8th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Kwame Poku → Paul Patrick Smyth
6th Substitution
Event
Demarai Gray → Ibrahim Osman
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Jonathan Panzo → Ethan Laird
5th Substitution
65'
58'
Event
Rhys Norrington-Davies → Steve Cook
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Rayan Kolli → Koki Saito
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kieran Morgan → Jonathan Varane
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ethan Laird
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Ibrahim Osman
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Event
Patrick Roberts
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Demarai Gray from Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Kyogo Furuhashi replaces Jay Stansfield.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Jay Stansfield committed a foul against Birmingham City.
90
Update Update
Rhys Norrington-Davies from Queens Park Rangers earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Jimmy Dunne from Queens Park Rangers was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Birmingham City after Ronnie Edwards allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Richard Kone from Queens Park Rangers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Richard Kone from Queens Park Rangers attempted a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Isaac Hayden.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Demarai Gray from Birmingham City attempts a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it is blocked. The assist came from Kanya Fujimoto.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Queens Park Rangers. Kwame Poku has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Jhon Solís from Birmingham City.
90
Update Update
Kanya Fujimoto from Birmingham City committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Birmingham City. Kyogo Furuhashi has been flagged for being offside.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Birmingham City defeating Queens Park Rangers 1-0.
89
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Kwame Poku from Queens Park Rangers took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed to the left. The assist came from Richard Kone.
88
Update Update
Offside call against Birmingham City. Carlos Vicente is caught in an offside position.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Carlos Vicente of Birmingham City fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Demarai Gray.
86
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Richard Kone from Queens Park Rangers takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but James Beadle from Birmingham City makes a great save, denying it in the top left corner. The assist came from Harvey Vale, who delivered a well-placed cross.
86
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Jack Robinson from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Joe Walsh from Queens Park Rangers makes a fantastic save, diving to his left. The assist came from Paik Seung-Ho, who delivered a precise cross.
85
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Carlos Vicente of Birmingham City fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Demarai Gray.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Rhys Norrington-Davies allowed the ball to go out.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Rhys Norrington-Davies allowed the ball to go out.
81
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Rayan Kolli from Queens Park Rangers attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Harvey Vale.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Beadle from Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card.
80
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Rayan Kolli of Queens Park Rangers takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Amadou Mbengue.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Isaac Hayden replaces Jake Clarke-Salter.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Carlos Vicente comes on to replace Patrick Roberts.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Carlos Vicente comes on to replace Patrick Roberts.
75
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Kwame Poku from Queens Park Rangers takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but James Beadle from Birmingham City makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Ronnie Edwards.
75
Update Update
Offside call against Queens Park Rangers. Harvey Vale has been ruled offside.
73
Update Update
Jack Robinson committed a foul against Birmingham City.
73
Update Update
Rayan Kolli from Queens Park Rangers earned a free kick in an offensive position.
72
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Harvey Vale from Queens Park Rangers took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed to the left. The assist came from Kwame Poku.
70
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Demarai Gray from Birmingham City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Patrick Roberts.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Kwame Poku replaces Paul Smyth.
67
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Rayan Kolli from Queens Park Rangers attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went over the goal and to the left. The assist came from Harvey Vale, who delivered a cross.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Christoph Klarer - Birmingham City.
66
Update Update
Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Demarai Gray comes on to replace Ibrahim Osman.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Jonathan Panzo is coming on to replace Ethan Laird.
64
Update Update
Jimmy Dunne from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Ethan Laird from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Attempt Attempt
A shot has been deflected. Rhys Norrington-Davies of Queens Park Rangers attempted a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Kieran Morgan.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Christoph Klarer allowed the ball to go out of play.
62
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers earned a free kick on the left flank.
61
Update Update
Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Patrick Roberts committed a foul against Birmingham City.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Rhys Norrington-Davies allowed it to go out.
58
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Rhys Norrington-Davies comes on to replace Steve Cook, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
57
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Steve Cook from Queens Park Rangers.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Marvin Ducksch from Birmingham City attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Jay Stansfield.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Ronnie Edwards allowed the ball to go out.
51
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Paik Seung-Ho.
50
Update Update
Steve Cook committed a foul against Queens Park Rangers.
50
Update Update
Jack Robinson from Birmingham City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Richard Kone committed a foul against Queens Park Rangers.
48
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar.
47
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
46
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Ethan Laird from Birmingham City.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Birmingham City leading Queens Park Rangers 1-0.
45
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue from Queens Park Rangers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Ethan Laird commits a foul for Birmingham City.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Laird of Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Kieran Morgan replaces Jonathan Varane.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Rayan Kolli comes on to replace Koki Saito.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Birmingham City leading Queens Park Rangers 1-0.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Jay Stansfield from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Joe Walsh, the goalkeeper for Queens Park Rangers, makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
43
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ethan Laird from Birmingham City fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
42
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Ethan Laird from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Patrick Roberts from Birmingham City attempted a left-footed shot from a distance on the right side following a free kick, but it went over the goal and to the left.
34
Update Update
Patrick Roberts from Birmingham City earned a free kick on the right flank.
34
Update Update
Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
33
Corner Corner
Ethan Laird from Birmingham City heads the ball and strikes the crossbar from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick.
32
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Jay Stansfield of Birmingham City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Marvin Ducksch.
32
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Tomoki Iwata of Birmingham City takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Joe Walsh, the goalkeeper for Queens Park Rangers, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Marvin Ducksch.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after a foul by Steve Cook.
31
Update Update
Ethan Laird from Birmingham City earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
31
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
29
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Marvin Ducksch of Birmingham City took a left-footed shot from the center of the box but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Jay Stansfield after a quick counterattack.
28
Update Update
Richard Kone committed a foul for Queens Park Rangers.
28
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tomoki Iwata from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar.
26
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City earned a free kick on the left flank.
26
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahim Osman of Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
24
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman committed a foul on the field - Birmingham City.
24
Update Update
Harvey Vale of Queens Park Rangers has been awarded a free kick in their defensive half.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Amadou Mbengue allowed the ball to go out.
21
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Ibrahim Osman of Birmingham City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide after a corner kick.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Joe Walsh allowed the ball to go out.
21
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Patrick Roberts from Birmingham City takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Joe Walsh of Queens Park Rangers makes a save, directing the ball to the right corner. The assist for this attempt comes from Paik Seung-Ho.
21
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Marvin Ducksch of Birmingham City attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went wide to the left. The chance was set up by Patrick Roberts, who delivered a cross following a corner.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Steve Cook allowed the ball to go out.
13
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Christoph Klarer of Birmingham City attempted a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box but failed to find the target on the left side. The assist came from Paik Seung-Ho, who delivered a cross into the area.
12
Update Update
Ronnie Edwards commits a handball for Queens Park Rangers.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Offside call against Birmingham City. Marvin Ducksch has been caught offside.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after a deflection off Harvey Vale.
1
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Jhon Solís of Birmingham City attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The chance was set up by Paik Seung-Ho, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Birmingham City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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