Bari 1908 vs Carrarese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale San Nicola Sun, 22 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Bari 1908 BAR
0 Winner 3
Carrarese CAR
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
|
Goal
Jonas Rouhi - 47'
Fabio Abiuso - 72'
Devid Eugene Bouah - 81'

CONTEXT

The match between Bari 1908 and Carrarese has officially finished, resulting in a decisive 3-0 full-time away victory for Carrarese. Following a tightly contested first half that ended completely even at 0-0, the visiting side broke through with three unanswered goals in the second half. Bari 1908 actually held a slight edge in possession with 52 percent of the ball compared to Carrarese's 48 percent, but the hosts ultimately failed to capitalize on their time on the ball. The match was played cleanly, with no red cards issued to impact the tactical landscape. Pre-match expectations slightly favored the visitors, with the market giving Carrarese a 38.8 percent chance of winning, alongside a 31.1 percent probability for a draw and 30.1 percent for a Bari 1908 victory. Because the favored side won, the final outcome was entirely market-aligned. However, the dominant three-goal margin created a significant deviation of 61.2 percent in Carrarese's favor, showing they outperformed the initially tight forecasts. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to mathematically assess chance creation, the overall efficiency shift was perfectly in line with expectations, as Carrarese relentlessly punished the hosts after the break.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Carrarese showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
VS
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: 44 L
Empoli Rank: 57 W
Sampdoria Rank: 52 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 D
Südtirol Rank: 55 L
Spezia Rank: 52 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: 63 L
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Mantova Rank: 52 D
Monza Rank: 66 L
Modena Rank: 60 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bari 1908
30.13%
Draw
31.09%
Away Carrarese
38.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.53
55.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bari 1908
Carrarese
Power Score
49.53
55.16
League Position
17
9
Global Rank
779
630

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bari 1908 Carrarese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.56
34.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.38
28.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bari 1908 -0.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Carrarese +0.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Carrarese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Carrarese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bari 1908 Carrarese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Carrarese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Carrarese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bari 1908 BAR Home
3 matches
Carrarese CAR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
R. Pucino
Substitution
Italy
25 (C) R. Pucino
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
A. Cistana
Italy
51 A. Cistana
L. Dickmann
Substitution
Italy
24 L. Dickmann
G. Maggiore
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
F. Artioli
Substitution
Italy
80 F. Artioli
E. Dorval
France
93 E. Dorval
T. Pontes Esteves
Substitution
Portugal
19 T. Pontes Esteves
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
G. Moncini
Italy
11 G. Moncini
M. Bleve
Italy
1 M. Bleve
J. Illanes Minucci
Substitution
Argentina
4 (C) J. Illanes Minucci
F. Oliana
Italy
6 F. Oliana
N. Calabrese
Italy
37 N. Calabrese
J. Rouhi
Substitution
Sweden
73 J. Rouhi
L. Hasa
Italy
70 L. Hasa
E. Zuelli
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Zuelli
G. Parlanti
Italy
77 G. Parlanti
S. Zanon
Substitution
Italy
72 S. Zanon
T. Rubino
Substitution
Italy
21 T. Rubino
F. Abiuso
Italy
9 F. Abiuso

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Capacity
58300
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Niccolò Turrini
Daniele Perenzoni
Carlo Rinaldi
Stefano Galimberti

Statistics

Possession
BAR
51%
CAR
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 4
57 Dangerous attacks 50
52 Possession 48
12 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

13 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 2
1 Hit Woodwork 2
7 Goal Attempts 9
1 Injuries 0
61 Ball Safe 71
15 Throwins 20
7 Goal Kicks 3
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
22 Dribble Attempts 23

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
99 Attacks 87

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 24
336 Successful Passes 306
398 Passes 374
84 Successful Passes Percentage 82
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
10 Key Passes 12
33 Long Passes 55

Defensive

1 Saves 3
5 Interceptions 7
22 Tackles 17

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
29 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
5.98
25
Raffaele Pucino
Raffaele Pucino (C) Defender
6.94
20
Nicolò Cavuoti
Nicolò Cavuoti
Midfielder75'
6.54
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
6.83
51
Andrea Cistana
Andrea Cistana Defender
6.38
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
6.86
24
Lorenzo Dickmann
Lorenzo Dickmann Midfielder
6.26
8
Riccardo Pagano
Riccardo Pagano
Midfielder61'
6.79
80
Federico Artioli
Federico Artioli Midfielder
7.12
66
Daouda Traore
Daouda Traore
Midfielder70'
6.31
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Midfielder
6.9
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
6.61
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
6.91
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker75'
6.51
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves Attacker
6.59
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo
Attacker70'
6.66
Referee : Daniele Perenzoni

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
7.71
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes (C) Defender
6.7
3
Marco Imperiale
Marco Imperiale
Defender46'
6.6
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Defender
6.85
37
Nicolò Calabrese
Nicolò Calabrese Defender
7.04
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder
6.78
25
Dachi Lordkipanidze
Dachi Lordkipanidze
Midfielder83'
6.32
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
7.63
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Midfielder
6.45
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah
Midfielder68'
7.54
73
Jonas Rouhi
Jonas Rouhi Midfielder
7.55
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni
Midfielder56'
6.67
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
7.23
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
8.53
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino Attacker
6.45
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto
Attacker46'
6.32

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marvin Cuni
Goal disallowed
90'
83'
Event
Dachi Lordkipanidze → Emanuele Zuelli
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Marvin Cuni → Emanuele Rao
9th Substitution
75'
Event
Nicolò Cavuoti → Raffaele Pucino
8th Substitution
75'
72'
Event
Fabio Abiuso
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Daouda Traore → Federico Artioli
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Kevin Piscopo → Tomás Esteves
6th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah → Simone Zanon
5th Substitution
Event
Riccardo Pagano → Lorenzo Dickmann
4th Substitution
61'
56'
Event
Niccolò Belloni → Jonas Rouhi
3rd Substitution
49'
Event
Simone Zanon
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Jonas Rouhi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Mattia Finotto → Tommaso Rubino
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Marco Imperiale → Julián Illanes
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Julián Illanes
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Carrarese exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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