Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Generali Arena
Sun, 15 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Austria Wien
FAK
2
5
5
Sturm Graz
STU
Full Time
Sun, 15 Mar
4:00 PM
Matteo Schablas - 1'
Manfred Fischer - 84'
|
Filip Rózga - 6'
Otar Kiteishvili - 45+1', 55' (P)
Ryan Fosso - 60'
Aleksandar Dragovic - 66' (Own Goal)
Tin Plavotic 55'
|
Paul Koller 76'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
The match between Austria Wien and Sturm Graz has concluded, with Sturm Graz securing a 3-2 away victory after taking a 2-1 lead into halftime. The flow of the game was tightly contested, reflected by Sturm Graz holding a slight possession advantage of 52% compared to Austria Wien's 48%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning the outcome
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. Altmann
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
S. Kühr
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
L. Katholnig
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
S. Barmaksiz
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.17
S. Helm
VS
F. Ingolitsch
1.81
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.71
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ried
Rank: 51
W
LASK Linz
Rank: 64
D
Rheindorf Altach
Rank: 54
L
SK Rapid
Rank: 58
W
Salzburg
Rank: 70
W
Sturm Graz
Rank: 67
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach
Rank: 53
W
Wolfsberger AC
Rank: 63
D
Blau-Weiß Linz
Rank: 50
W
WSG Tirol
Rank: 54
L
Ried
Rank: 53
W
Austria Wien
Rank: 67
L
30
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
30 - 21 - 25
25
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Austria Wien
37.37%
Draw
30.13%
Sturm Graz
32.5%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.94
67.73
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
Power Score
64.94
67.73
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
294
227
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Austria Wien
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Austria Wien Sturm Graz
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Austria Wien
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Sturm Graz
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Austria Wien
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Sturm Graz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.60
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Austria Wien
+0.61
Efficiency Index
vs
Sturm Graz
-0.61
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Austria Wien
vs
Sturm Graz
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
1.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00
vs
+1.00
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Austria Wien
FAK
Home
18
matches
Sturm Graz
STU
Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
3
Draws
3
8
Losses
7
Goals
25
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
25
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-17T07:37:52+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
1 S. Sahin-Radlinger
28 P. Wiesinger
15 A. Dragović
24 T. Plavotic
26 R. Ranftl
V. Markovic
#3662'
6 P. Maybach
J. Handl
#4662'
16 Lee Kang-Hee
M. Österreicher
#3382'
40 M. Schablas
30 (C) M. Fischer
R. Mörth
#3482'
5 A. Bari
A. Kanté
#4788'
19 J. Eggestein
40 M. Bignetti
17 E. Karic
30 P. Koller
2 J. Mitchell
5 A. Vallci
4 (C) J. Gorenc Stankovič
L. Weinhandl
#3988'
80 R. Fosso
G. Mamageishvili
#1563'
8 F. Rózga
2
M. Malone
#7772'
10 O. Kiteishvili
A. Malic
#2372'
43 J. Hödl
B. Beganovic
#2662'
20 S. Jatta
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Stadium
Generali Arena
Capacity
10398
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Walter Altmann
Stefan Kühr
Luka Katholnig
Safak Barmaksiz
Statistics
Possession
FAK
49%
STU
51%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
5
2
Big Chances Created
7
8
Shots
9
39
Dangerous attacks
31
48
Possession
52
7
Corners
3
7
Free kicks
14
6
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
5
Substitutions
5
2
Assists
1
8
Successful Dribbles
7
17
Throwins
24
42
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
8
Goal Kicks
10
19
Dribble Attempts
14
11
Goal Attempts
10
83
Ball Safe
88
1
Injuries
2
0
Penalties
1
Attacking
1
Big Chances Missed
3
71
Attacks
75
Possession
230
Successful Passes
259
15
Key Passes
8
23
Successful Long Passes
19
303
Passes
337
45
Long Passes
41
51
Successful Long Passes Percentage
46
76
Successful Passes Percentage
77
Defensive
6
Interceptions
8
12
Tackles
18
5
Saves
5
Build-up
6
Accurate Crosses
6
21
Total Crosses
14
Discipline
1
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
7
Lineup
Referee :
Walter Altmann
Manager ▼
S. Helm
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger
Goalkeeper
6.44 15
Aleksandar Dragovic
Defender
24
Tin Plavotic
Defender
4.96
28
Philipp Wiesinger
Defender
6.01
6
Philipp Maybach
Midfielder
6.13 36Vasilije Markovic
6.8Midfielder62'
16
Kang-hee Lee
Midfielder
6.25 46Johannes Handl
Defender62'
6.55
26
Reinhold Ranftl
Midfielder
6.36 40
Matteo Schablas
Midfielder
33Marijan Österreicher
6.48Midfielder82'
5
Abubakr Barry
Attacker
7.51
34Romeo Mörth
6.23Attacker82'
19
Johannes Eggestein
Attacker
7.29 47Abdoulaye Kanté
Attacker88'
30
Manfred Fischer (C)
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
99
Mirko Kos
Goalkeeper
66
Ifeanyi Ndukwe
Defender
21
Hakim Guenouche
Midfielder
7
Romeo Vucic
Attacker
Referee :
Walter Altmann
Manager ▼
F. Ingolitsch
Coach
Starting XI ▼
40
Matteo Bignetti
Goalkeeper
7.16 2
Jeyland Mitchell
Defender
7.23 5
Albert Vallci
Defender
7.71 17
Emir Karic
Defender
6.7 30
Paul Koller
Defender
5.88
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C)
Midfielder
7.06 8
Filip Rózga
Midfielder
15Gizo Mamageishvili
6.78Midfielder63'
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Midfielder
2
9.23 77Maurice Malone
6.55Attacker72'
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Midfielder
6.05 23Arjan Malic
6.27Defender72'
80
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder
39Luca Weinhandl
Midfielder88'
20
Seedy Jatta
Attacker
6.99 26Belmin Beganovic
6.65Attacker62'
Substitutes ▼
41
Elias Lorenz
Goalkeeper
35
Niklas Geyrhofer
Defender
47
Emanuel Aiwu
Defender
11
Axel Kayombo
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Aleksandar Dragovic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Johannes Handl
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Abdoulaye Kanté → Johannes Eggestein
9th Substitution
88'
88'
Luca Weinhandl → Ryan Fosso
10th Substitution
Manfred Fischer
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
84'
Marijan Österreicher → Matteo Schablas
8th Substitution
82'
Romeo Mörth → Abubakr Barry
7th Substitution
82'
76'
Paul Koller
Card adjusted
76'
Paul Koller
Foul / 1st Redcard
72'
Maurice Malone → Otar Kiteishvili
6th Substitution
72'
Arjan Malic → Jacob Peter Hödl
5th Substitution
Philipp Wiesinger
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
66'
Aleksandar Dragovic
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
63'
Gizo Mamageishvili → Filip Rózga
4th Substitution
Vasilije Markovic → Philipp Maybach
3rd Substitution
62'
Johannes Handl → Kang-hee Lee
2nd Substitution
62'
62'
Belmin Beganovic → Seedy Jatta
1st Substitution
60'
Ryan Fosso
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
56'
Filip Rózga
3rd Yellowcard
Tin Plavotic
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
55'
55'
Otar Kiteishvili
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
54'
Otar Kiteishvili
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Otar Kiteishvili
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Tin Plavotic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
Abubakr Barry
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
7th Yellowcard
30'
6'
Filip Rózga
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Matteo Schablas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Sturm Graz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.