Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Riyadh Air Metropolitano Tue, 10 Mar - 8:00 PM
Champions League
Atlético Madrid ATM
5 Winner 2
Tottenham Hotspur TOT
Full Time Tue, 10 Mar 8:00 PM
Marcos Llorente - 6'
Antoine Griezmann - 14'
Julián Alvarez - 15', 55'
Robin Le Normand - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Pedro Porro  - 26'
Dominic Solanke - 76'

CONTEXT

The match between Atlético Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur has finished, with the home side securing a commanding 5-2 victory. Atlético asserted their dominance early on, taking a massive 4-1 lead into the halftime break before comfortably closing out the win. The outcome aligned completely with the pre-match market, where Atlético Madrid were strongly favored with a 57.1% implied probability of victory, compared to a 24.5% chance for a draw and Tottenham's 18.4%. Despite the expected home victory, Atlético Madrid heavily overperformed the market's initial predictions, registering a significant positive deviation in their overall output. The hosts controlled the flow of the contest, commanding 58% of the possession while restricting Spurs to just 42% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be evaluated whether the final seven-goal scoreline was mathematically consistent with the underlying quality of chances created. The match's efficiency shift was ultimately in line with expectations, reflecting the anticipated performance gap between the two sides. The fixture also proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card to alter the dynamic. Ultimately, Atlético justified their status as the stronger team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atlético Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Gözübüyük
S. Gözübüyük
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
P. Inia
P. Inia
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
R. Honig
R. Honig
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
J. Manschot
J. Manschot
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.33
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.42
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Tottenham Hotspur I. Tudor
I. Tudor
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
PSV Rank: W
Inter Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Liverpool Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slavia Praha Rank: W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
FC København Rank: W
Monaco Rank: D
Bodø / Glimt Rank: D
Villarreal Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
56.74%
Draw
24.54%
Away Tottenham Hotspur
18.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atlético Madrid
-0.38%
Draw
+0.06%
Tottenham Hotspur
+0.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.75
26.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Tottenham Hotspur
Power Score
36.75
26.29
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Tottenham Hotspur — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Tottenham Hotspur

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tottenham Hotspur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tottenham Hotspur
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.24
28.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.69
22.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atlético Madrid -0.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Tottenham Hotspur +0.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Tottenham Hotspur
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tottenham Hotspur
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Madrid Tottenham Hotspur
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Madrid Tottenham Hotspur
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Madrid
Tottenham Hotspur
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
0 matches
Tottenham Hotspur TOT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-11T00:09:56+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 10, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Stadium
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity
70460
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Serdar Gözübüyük
Patrick Inia
Rogier Honig
Jeroen Manschot

Statistics

Possession
ATM
55%
TOT
45%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 3
11 Shots 11
38 Dangerous attacks 21
58 Possession 42
4 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

0 Injuries 3
17 Throwins 21
4 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 2
11 Dribble Attempts 25
9 Goal Kicks 3
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
3 Successful Dribbles 11
9 Goal Attempts 8
14 Successful Headers 1
87 Ball Safe 75
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 2
81 Attacks 95

Possession

49 Long Passes 42
25 Successful Long Passes 14
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
85 Successful Passes Percentage 83
417 Successful Passes 293
490 Passes 352
8 Key Passes 10

Defensive

53 Duels Won 38
25 Tackles 12
5 Interceptions 11
3 Saves 3

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 5
14 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

15 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Cristian Romero 
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Xavi Simons → Djed Spence
9th Substitution
Event
Koke  → Antoine Griezmann
8th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Kevin Danso
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Dominic Solanke
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
Event
Nico González → Julián Alvarez
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Alexander Sørloth → Marcos Llorente
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Pablo Barrios → Ademola Lookman
5th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
João Palhinha → Richarlison 
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Archie Gray
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Richarlison 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Julián Alvarez
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
55'
46'
Event
Conor Gallagher → Mathys Tel
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Dominic Solanke → Randal Kolo Muani
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Pedro Porro 
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Robin Le Normand
Header / 4th Goal
22'
17'
Event
Guglielmo Vicario → Antonín Kinský
1st Substitution
Event
Julián Alvarez
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
15'
Event
Antoine Griezmann
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
14'
Event
Marcos Llorente
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'
4'
Event
Djed Spence
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Cristian Romero from Tottenham Hotspur.
90
Substitution Substitution
João Palhinha had to leave the game due to injury after Tottenham Hotspur had already exhausted their substitutions.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Atletico Madrid defeating Tottenham Hotspur 5-2.
90
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Cristian Romero from Tottenham Hotspur.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Cristian Romero had to leave the match due to injury after Tottenham Hotspur had already made all their substitutions.
89
Update Update
Nico González from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Pedro Porro from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Update Update
Archie Gray committed a foul on a player from Tottenham Hotspur.
88
Update Update
Giuliano Simeone from Atletico Madrid earned a free kick in his own half.
85
Update Update
Cristian Romero from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Giuliano Simeone from Atletico Madrid was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cristian Romero of Tottenham Hotspur has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
84
Update Update
João Palhinha from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Koke from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Update Update
Cristian Romero of Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in an offensive position.
84
Update Update
Alexander Sørloth from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Micky van de Ven from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: Xavi Simons comes on to replace Djed Spence.
83
Update Update
Alexander Sørloth from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Micky van de Ven from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Koke comes on to replace Antoine Griezmann.
81
Update Update
Pablo Barrios from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Danso of Tottenham Hotspur has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
80
Update Update
Kevin Danso from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
80
Update Update
Nico González from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
79
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Micky van de Ven of Tottenham Hotspur attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Djed Spence.
79
Update Update
Djed Spence from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
79
Update Update
Marc Pubill from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Alexander Sørloth from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Cristian Romero from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Archie Gray of Tottenham Hotspur took a right-footed shot from close range but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Dominic Solanke, who delivered a cross.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid 5, Tottenham Hotspur 2. Dominic Solanke scores for Tottenham Hotspur with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Pedro Porro.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Johnny Cardoso - Atletico Madrid.
74
Update Update
Kevin Danso from Tottenham Hotspur was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nico González comes on to replace Julián Alvarez.
71
Update Update
Julián Alvarez committed a foul against an Atletico Madrid player.
71
Update Update
Pedro Porro of Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Corner Corner
A new offensive play is underway. Dominic Solanke from Tottenham Hotspur takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Jan Oblak from Atletico Madrid makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Pedro Porro, who delivered a cross.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Pablo Barrios comes on to replace Ademola Lookman.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Alexander Sørloth is coming on to replace Marcos Llorente.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: João Palhinha comes on to replace Richarlison.
66
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Giuliano Simeone from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Djed Spence from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick while defending.
63
Update Update
Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid commits a handball.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Archie Gray of Tottenham Hotspur has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
62
Update Update
Matteo Ruggeri from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Update Update
Archie Gray committed a foul against Tottenham Hotspur.
60
Update Update
Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid earned a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Richarlison of Tottenham Hotspur has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
60
Update Update
Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
58
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Pape Matar Sarr from Tottenham Hotspur attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
55
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area, but Jan Oblak, the goalkeeper for Atletico Madrid, makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Pedro Porro, who delivered a cross.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid leads 5-1 against Tottenham Hotspur. Julián Alvarez scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the area, placing it into the left corner. The assist comes from Antoine Griezmann after a quick counterattack.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tottenham Hotspur after a defensive play by Dávid Hancko.
46
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side. Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham Hotspur makes a save, diving to the left corner. The assist came from Ademola Lookman.
46
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso commits a foul for Atletico Madrid.
46
Update Update
Conor Gallagher from Tottenham Hotspur has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: Dominic Solanke comes on to replace Randal Kolo Muani.
45
Update Update
Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Atletico Madrid leading Tottenham Hotspur by a score of 4-1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Cristian Romero from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Atletico Madrid leading Tottenham Hotspur 4-1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: Conor Gallagher replaces Mathys Tel.
43
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Marcos Llorente from Atletico Madrid attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The setup came from Matteo Ruggeri, who delivered a well-placed cross.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Pedro Porro allowed the ball to go out of play.
41
Update Update
Kevin Danso of Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Matteo Ruggeri from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Cristian Romero from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Julián Alvarez of Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Corner Corner
Cristian Romero of Tottenham Hotspur heads the ball and strikes the right post from the right side of the six-yard area. The assist came from Mathys Tel, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tottenham Hotspur after Marcos Llorente allowed the ball to go out.
35
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Pape Matar Sarr from Tottenham Hotspur had a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area that was blocked. The assist came from Mathys Tel.
33
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham Hotspur makes a save, directing the ball to the left corner. The assist comes from Julián Alvarez, who delivered a precise through ball.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Guglielmo Vicario allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
Cristian Romero from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Dávid Hancko from Atletico Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Update Update
Randal Kolo Muani of Tottenham Hotspur was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
28
Update Update
Dávid Hancko from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid 4, Tottenham Hotspur 1. Pedro Porro scores for Tottenham Hotspur with a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, finding the left corner of the net. The assist came from Richarlison after a quick counterattack.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid leads Tottenham Hotspur 4-0. Robin Le Normand scores for Atletico Madrid with a header from close range, directing the ball straight into the center of the net.
21
Update Update
Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
21
Update Update
Pape Matar Sarr from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Micky van de Ven allowed the ball to go out.
19
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Matteo Ruggeri from Atletico Madrid attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Johnny Cardoso.
18
Update Update
Offside call against Tottenham Hotspur. Richarlison has been caught in an offside position.
17
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: Guglielmo Vicario is coming on to replace Antonín Kinsky.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid leads 3-0 against Tottenham Hotspur. Julián Alvarez scores for Atletico Madrid with a right-footed shot from close range, sending the ball straight into the center of the net.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid leads 2-0 against Tottenham Hotspur. Antoine Griezmann scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing the ball into the right corner of the net.
13
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Micky van de Ven, who set him up with a header.
11
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Micky van de Ven from Tottenham Hotspur was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Mathys Tel from Tottenham Hotspur takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Jan Oblak, the goalkeeper for Atletico Madrid, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Archie Gray.
8
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marcos Llorente from Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atletico Madrid after Pedro Porro allowed the ball to go out.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Tottenham Hotspur. Marcos Llorente fires a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner of the net. The assist comes from Julián Alvarez.
5
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Antoine Griezmann of Atletico Madrid fires a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Ademola Lookman, who delivered a cross.
4
Update Update
Djed Spence from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
4
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Djed Spence of Tottenham Hotspur has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Atlético Madrid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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