Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Carabao Cup, England
Wembley Stadium Sun, 22 Mar - 4:30 PM
Carabao Cup
Arsenal ARS
0 Winner 2
Manchester City MCI
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:30 PM
|
Goal
Nico O'Reilly - 60', 64'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Arsenal 0–2 Manchester City. The result saw Manchester City take the points. Manchester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: Arsenal 43.2% | Draw 29% | Manchester City 27.8%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 D
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 W
Port Vale Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brentford Rank: 89 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Huddersfield Town Rank: 72 W
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 11 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
43.17%
Draw
29.01%
Away Manchester City
27.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
100
97.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Manchester City
Power Score
100
97.16
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
1
3

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Manchester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.53
20.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.48
30.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arsenal +1.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Manchester City -1.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Manchester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arsenal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arsenal Manchester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arsenal Manchester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Manchester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arsenal
vs
Manchester City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arsenal Manchester City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
2.17
2.33
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
17.17
15.83
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
64.83
72.17
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arsenal 0.27
Manchester City 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arsenal Manchester City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
0.17
0.50
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
7.50
7.33
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
35.83
33.17
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arsenal 0.00
Manchester City 0.01
Direct transition event data unavailable. Values estimated using ball-possession tracking and shot efficiency as a proxy model. Confidence: Medium.
Arsenal
Manchester City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
56 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
21
Wins
24
11
Draws
11
24
Losses
21
Goals
76
Goals Scored
86
86
Goals Conceded
76
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-23T00:39:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
Spain
13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
B. White
Substitution
England
4 B. White
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
P. Hincapié Reyna
Substitution
Ecuador
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
D. Rice
England
41 D. Rice
B. Saka
England
7 B. Saka
K. Havertz
Substitution
Germany
29 K. Havertz
L. Trossard
Substitution
Belgium
19 L. Trossard
V. Gyökeres
Sweden
14 V. Gyökeres
J. Trafford
England
1 J. Trafford
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
N. Aké
Netherlands
6 N. Aké
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
Rodri
Spain
16 Rodri
J. Doku
Belgium
11 J. Doku
B. Silva
Portugal
20 B. Silva
M. Cherki
Substitution
France
10 M. Cherki
A. Semenyo
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Carabao Cup, England
Stadium
Wembley Stadium
Capacity
90000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Peter Bankes
Neil Davies
Thomas Bramall
Steve Meredith

Statistics

Possession
ARS
40%
MCI
60%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 2
32 Dangerous attacks 54
38 Possession 62
3 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 14
7 Goal Kicks 6
11 Successful Headers 13
8 Dribble Attempts 25
3 Successful Dribbles 16
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
47 Ball Safe 60
5 Goal Attempts 5
4 Substitutions 1
0 Assists 1
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

75 Attacks 98
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

51 Long Passes 47
78 Successful Passes Percentage 87
332 Passes 546
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
258 Successful Passes 476
22 Successful Long Passes 18
6 Key Passes 7

Defensive

21 Tackles 17
3 Interceptions 9
0 Saves 4

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 15
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Peter Bankes

Starting XI ▼

13
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Kepa Arrizabalaga Goalkeeper
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
4
Ben White
Ben White Defender
9
Gabriel Jesus
Gabriel Jesus
Attacker82'
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Defender
33
Riccardo Calafiori
Riccardo Calafiori
Defender65'
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka Midfielder
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Midfielder
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli
Attacker82'
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Midfielder
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke
Attacker66'
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
Referee : Peter Bankes

Starting XI ▼

1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
6
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké Defender
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
2
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki Midfielder
47
Phil Foden
Phil Foden
Midfielder90'
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Midfielder
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Phil Foden → Rayan Cherki
5th Substitution
Event
Gabriel Martinelli → Leandro Trossard
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Gabriel Jesus → Ben White
3rd Substitution
82'
Event
Ben White
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Noni Madueke → Kai Havertz
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Riccardo Calafiori → Piero Hincapié
1st Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Pep Guardiola
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Nico O'Reilly
Header / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Nico O'Reilly
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Abdukodir Khusanov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Piero Hincapié
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'
Event
Pep Guardiola
5th Yellowcard
16'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City is awarded a free kick in his own half.
90
Update Update
Noni Madueke commits a foul against Arsenal.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jérémy Doku from Manchester City took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. Nathan Aké provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Manchester City. Jérémy Doku has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Phil Foden comes on to take the place of Rayan Cherki.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with the final score being Arsenal 0, Manchester City 2.
88
Update Update
Gabriel Jesus from Arsenal strikes the crossbar with a header taken from a challenging position on the left side. The opportunity was set up by a cross from Noni Madueke.
88
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Bukayo Saka of Arsenal tries a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
86
Update Update
Declan Rice commits a foul for Arsenal.
86
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City earns a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
85
Update Update
Declan Rice of Arsenal commits a foul.
85
Update Update
Rayan Cherki from Manchester City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
85
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Arsenal commits a foul.
85
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
82
Update Update
William Saliba from Arsenal earns a free kick in his own half.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli comes on to take the place of Leandro Trossard.
82
Update Update
Reilly versus Manchester City.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus comes on to take the place of Ben White.
79
Update Update
Declan Rice commits a foul for Arsenal.
79
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City earns a free kick on the right flank.
78
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Riccardo Calafiori of Arsenal took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide.
77
Update Update
Matheus Nunes commits a foul for Manchester City.
77
Update Update
Riccardo Calafiori of Arsenal earns a free kick in the defensive zone.
73
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal has been blocked. Riccardo Calafiori of Arsenal directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but James Trafford from Manchester City managed to make a save at the top center of the net. The opportunity was set up by Declan Rice, who delivered a cross.
72
Update Update
Noni Madueke from Arsenal earns a free kick on the right flank.
72
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo commits a foul against Manchester City.
69
Update Update
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
69
Update Update
Ben White of Arsenal commits a foul.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben White from Arsenal receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Noni Madueke comes on to take the place of Kai Havertz.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori comes on to take the place of Piero Hincapié.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Reilly scores for Manchester City with a header from the center of the penalty area, directing the ball into the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Matheus Nunes.
63
Update Update
Leandro Trossard of Arsenal earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
63
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo commits a foul against Manchester City.
60
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Nathan Aké from Manchester City takes a left-footed attempt from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Reilly of Manchester City attempts a header from just a few yards out.
58
Attempt Attempt
Blocked attempt. Rayan Cherki of Manchester City had a left-foot shot from the center of the box, but it was successfully defended. The chance was set up by Jérémy Doku.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Antoine Semenyo of Manchester City took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. He was set up by Matheus Nunes.
55
Attempt Attempt
Rodri's attempt is thwarted. The Manchester City player takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. Rayan Cherki provided the assist.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kepa Arrizabalaga of Arsenal receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
50
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City earns a free kick on the left flank.
50
Update Update
Kepa Arrizabalaga commits a foul for Arsenal.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arsenal after Abdukodir Khusanov allowed the ball to go out.
49
Update Update
The attempt was thwarted. Erling Haaland from Manchester City had a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Antoine Semenyo.
49
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kai Havertz from Arsenal takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Erling Haaland from Manchester City had a header from just a short distance but couldn't find the target.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Arsenal and Manchester City.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Erling Haaland from Manchester City heads the ball just over the bar from a short distance, with assistance from Antoine Semenyo.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Arsenal 0, Manchester City 0.
43
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Manchester City after a defensive play by William Saliba.
38
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Piero Hincapié of Arsenal heads the ball from the left side of the six-yard box, but it goes over the bar. The chance was set up by Bukayo Saka, who delivered a cross after a corner kick.
34
Update Update
Matheus Nunes from Manchester City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arsenal after Nathan Aké allowed the ball to go out.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdukodir Khusanov from Manchester City receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
31
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal earns a free kick on the right flank.
31
Update Update
Abdukodir Khusanov commits a foul for Manchester City.
29
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a foul for Manchester City.
29
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal earns a free kick in the offensive zone.
29
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Manchester City after Gabriel Magalhães allowed the ball to go out.
20
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Manchester City after Ben White allowed the ball to go out.
19
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo of Manchester City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
19
Update Update
Martín Zubimendi commits a foul for Arsenal.
18
Update Update
Bukayo Saka from Arsenal earns a free kick on the right flank.
18
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a foul for Manchester City.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Piero Hincapié from Arsenal receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
16
Update Update
Piero Hincapié of Arsenal commits a foul.
16
Update Update
Matheus Nunes from Manchester City earns a free kick in his own half.
15
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a foul for Manchester City.
15
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
12
Attempt Attempt
Shot attempt denied. Leandro Trossard from Arsenal takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
12
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Arsenal after Rodri allowed the ball to go out of play.
11
Update Update
Bukayo Saka of Arsenal earns a free kick on the right flank.
11
Update Update
Reilly versus Manchester City.
10
Update Update
William Saliba from Arsenal earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
10
Update Update
Erling Haaland commits a foul for Manchester City.
7
Corner Corner
The shot was blocked. Bukayo Saka from Arsenal took a right-footed attempt from a challenging position on the right side, but James Trafford from Manchester City managed to make the save in the bottom right corner.
7
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal blocked. Bukayo Saka of Arsenal took a challenging left-footed shot from a tight angle on the right side, but James Trafford from Manchester City made a save right in the middle of the goal.
7
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Kai Havertz of Arsenal takes a left-footed attempt from the right side of the six-yard area, but James Trafford from Manchester City makes a save right in the middle of the goal, with the assist coming from Martín Zubimendi.
5
Update Update
Abdukodir Khusanov from Manchester City earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
5
Update Update
Kai Havertz from Arsenal commits a foul.
2
Update Update
Arsenal has been flagged for offside. Viktor Gyökeres has been caught in an offside position.
1
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres commits a foul against Arsenal.
1
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City earns a free kick in his own half.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Manchester City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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