Arka Gdynia vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Tue, 7 Apr - 5:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
3 Winner 1
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
O. Kubiak - 15'
Sebastian Kerk - 45'
Vladislavs Gutkovskis - 78'
Goal
|
Goal
Levente Szabó - 52'
|
Second yellow card Michal Nalepa 48'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Arka Gdynia securing a 3-1 victory over Zagłębie Lubin. The hosts established a commanding lead early, taking a 2-0 advantage into the halftime break. Before kickoff, market probabilities indicated a tight contest, giving Arka Gdynia a 38.1% chance to win, a 30.6% chance of a draw, and a 31.3% chance for a Zagłębie Lubin victory. While Zagłębie Lubin was generally considered the stronger side on paper, the final outcome was fully market-aligned, rewarding the slight edge correctly given to the home side. The overall flow of the match was tightly contested, with both teams sharing exactly 50% possession. Expected goals (xG) metrics were not available for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final score strictly aligned with the quality of chances created. Nevertheless, overall efficiency shifts were entirely in line with expectations. The second half featured notable red card distortion after Zagłębie Lubin had a player sent off, severely hampering their ability to mount a late comeback. Ultimately, Arka Gdynia enjoyed a significant positive deviation from standard expectations, comfortably closing out the game against ten men.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arka Gdynia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Gryckiewicz
P. Gryckiewicz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Boniek
M. Boniek
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
S. Rutkowski
S. Rutkowski
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.89
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
VS
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 W
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 D
Katowice Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 67 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arka Gdynia
38.05%
Draw
30.63%
Away Zagłębie Lubin
31.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.53
61.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arka Gdynia
Zagłębie Lubin
Power Score
50.53
61.8
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
577
403

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arka Gdynia Zagłębie Lubin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arka Gdynia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.20
27.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.30
32.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arka Gdynia +0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Zagłębie Lubin -0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arka Gdynia
Zagłębie Lubin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arka Gdynia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arka Gdynia Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arka Gdynia Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arka Gdynia
Zagłębie Lubin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arka Gdynia
vs
Zagłębie Lubin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arka Gdynia Zagłębie Lubin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arka Gdynia 0.33
Zagłębie Lubin 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arka Gdynia Zagłębie Lubin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arka Gdynia 0.02
Zagłębie Lubin 0.07
Arka Gdynia
Zagłębie Lubin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Home
19 matches
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Away
Match Record
6
Wins
8
5
Draws
5
8
Losses
6
Goals
19
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
19
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:02:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Węglarz
Poland
77 D. Węglarz
D. Zator
Canada
4 D. Zator
E. Gómez Hermoso
Spain
23 E. Gómez Hermoso
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
D. Gojny
Poland
94 D. Gojny
K. Jakubczyk
Substitution
Poland
35 K. Jakubczyk
A. Nguiamba
Substitution
France
10 A. Nguiamba
Oskar Kubiak
7 Oskar Kubiak
S. Kerk
Substitution
Germany
37 S. Kerk
D. Kocyla
Substitution
Poland
11 D. Kocyla
V. Gutkovskis
Substitution
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
L. Lučić
Croatia
35 L. Lučić
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
J. Čorluka
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
F. Kocaba
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
D. Dąbrowski
Poland
8 D. Dąbrowski
S. Kowalczyk
Substitution
Poland
7 S. Kowalczyk
J. Kolan
Substitution
Poland
26 J. Kolan
M. Reguła
Substitution
Poland
44 M. Reguła
L. Szabo
Substitution
Hungary
17 L. Szabo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 07, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski
Capacity
15300
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek
Szymon Rutkowski

Statistics

Possession
Arka Gdynia
50%
Zagłębie Lubin
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 7
42 Dangerous attacks 53
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 13
14 Successful Dribbles 7
9 Goal Kicks 7
17 Throwins 17
78 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
73 Ball Safe 65
1 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 12
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

83 Attacks 96
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

71 Successful Passes Percentage 72
314 Passes 293
222 Successful Passes 211
54 Long Passes 56
9 Key Passes 7
21 Successful Long Passes 28
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

9 Tackles 17
66 Duels Won 59
4 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 32
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

13 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

77
Damian Weglarz
Damian Weglarz Goalkeeper
4
Dominick Zator
Dominick Zator Defender
23
Kike Hermoso
Kike Hermoso Defender
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny Defender
7
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak Midfielder
10
Aurélien Nguiamba
Aurélien Nguiamba Midfielder
6
Luis Perea
Luis Perea
Midfielder46'
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla Midfielder
21
Patryk Szysz
Patryk Szysz
Midfielder72'
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
Kamil Jakubczyk Midfielder
22
Michal Rzuchowski
Michal Rzuchowski
Midfielder72'
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk Midfielder
8
Alassane Sidibe
Alassane Sidibe
Midfielder89'
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
99
Edu Espiau
Edu Espiau
Attacker89'
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Defender
84
Jakub Ligocki
Jakub Ligocki
Midfielder66'
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic Defender
7
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Sebastian Kowalczyk Midfielder
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder46'
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski Midfielder
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan Midfielder
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski
Midfielder46'
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Midfielder
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Midfielder
20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Midfielder84'
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó Attacker
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis
Attacker66'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Edu Espiau → Vladislavs Gutkovskis
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Alassane Sidibe → Sebastian Kerk
10th Substitution
89'
84'
Event
Mateusz Dziewiatowski → Marcel Regula
8th Substitution
Event
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
78'
Event
Michal Rzuchowski
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Michal Rzuchowski → Kamil Jakubczyk
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Patryk Szysz → Dawid Kocyla
7th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Jakub Ligocki → Josip Corluka
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Michalis Kosidis → Levente Szabó
4th Substitution
52'
Event
Levente Szabó
Header / 3rd Goal
48'
Event
Michal Nalepa
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Luis Perea → Aurélien Nguiamba
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Jakub Sypek → Sebastian Kowalczyk
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Adam Radwanski → Jakub Kolan
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Sebastian Kerk
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45'
43'
Event
Michal Nalepa
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Kamil Jakubczyk
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
34'
Event
Aurélien Nguiamba
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
23'
Event
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Goal awarded
17'
Event
O. Kubiak
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arka Gdynia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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