Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep F.K. Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Antalya Stadyumu Fri, 13 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Antalyaspor ANT
1 Winner 4
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K.
Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 5:00 PM
Ramzi Safuri - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Mohamed Bayo - 59', 76'
Kacper Kozlowski - 65'
Drissa Camara - 82'

CONTEXT

The match between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep F.K. has finished, with Gaziantep F.K. securing an emphatic 4-1 victory. Following a tightly contested first half that ended entirely scoreless, the visitors found their rhythm in the second half to take all three points in dominant fashion. This result completely defied pre-match market expectations, representing a significant deviation driven by Gaziantep F.K. Before kickoff, Antalyaspor held a 40% probability of winning, compared to just a 31.6% chance for the visitors and a 28.4% likelihood of a draw. Because the final outcome favored the underdog so heavily, the result was notably not aligned with the initial market projections. Despite the lopsided final scoreline, Antalyaspor actually controlled the tempo, holding 60% possession compared to Gaziantep F.K.'s 40%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be definitively stated whether the outcome aligned with underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was noted as being in line with the team performances, reflecting a clinical display by the visitors. Finally, the match was completed without any red cards, meaning disciplinary ejections played no part in the second-half scoring surge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gaziantep F.K. showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Hasova
G. Hasova
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
E. Akbulut
E. Akbulut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
A. Alp
A. Alp
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Aldemir
M. Aldemir
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 9.7
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Antalyaspor S. Uğurlu
S. Uğurlu
VS
Gaziantep F.K. B. Yılmaz
B. Yılmaz
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rizespor Rank: 67 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 D
Kayserispor Rank: 64 L
Samsunspor Rank: 70 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 60 L
Trabzonspor Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 59 D
Samsunspor Rank: 70 D
Trabzonspor Rank: 78 L
Kocaelispor Rank: 68 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 64 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 67 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 6 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Antalyaspor
39.96%
Draw
28.44%
Away Gaziantep F.K.
31.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.9
66.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Antalyaspor
Gaziantep F.K.
Power Score
58.9
66.49
League Position
14
8
Global Rank
496
258

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Antalyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Gaziantep F.K. — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Antalyaspor Gaziantep F.K.

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Antalyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gaziantep F.K.

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Antalyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gaziantep F.K.
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.33
34.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.25
23.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Antalyaspor -1.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Gaziantep F.K. +1.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Antalyaspor
Gaziantep F.K.
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Antalyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gaziantep F.K.
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Antalyaspor Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Antalyaspor Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Antalyaspor
Gaziantep F.K.
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Antalyaspor ANT Home
11 matches
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K. Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
7
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:06:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
J. Cuesta Díaz
Spain
1 J. Cuesta Díaz
B. Balcı
Substitution
Turkey
7 B. Balcı
V. Sarı
Turkey
89 (C) V. Sarı
H. Türkmen
Turkey
4 H. Türkmen
K. Paal
Suriname
3 K. Paal
S. Dikmen
Turkey
6 S. Dikmen
J. Ceesay
Substitution
Gambia
23 J. Ceesay
D. Šarić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
88 D. Šarić
S. Ballet
Switzerland
11 S. Ballet
S. van de Streek
Netherlands
22 S. van de Streek
N. Storm
Substitution
Belgium
26 N. Storm
M. Bozan
Turkey
71 M. Bozan
C. Lungoyi
Substitution
Switzerland
11 C. Lungoyi
A. Kızıldağ
Turkey
4 A. Kızıldağ
M. Abena
Suriname
14 M. Abena
N. Sangare
Turkey
30 N. Sangare
L. Pérez Maqueda
Spain
2 L. Pérez Maqueda
K. Gassama
Gambia
17 K. Gassama
O. Özçiçek
Substitution
Turkey
61 O. Özçiçek
K. Kozłowski
Substitution
Poland
10 K. Kozłowski
A. Maxim
Substitution
Romania
44 (C) A. Maxim
M. Bayo
Guinea
9 M. Bayo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 13, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Antalya Stadyumu
Capacity
32537
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gürcan Hasova
Erkan Akbulut
Ali Can Alp
M. Aldemir

Statistics

Possession
ANT
58%
Gaziantep F.K.
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 4
40 Dangerous attacks 34
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 6
18 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

53 Ball Safe 43
5 Goal Attempts 5
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26
11 Successful Headers 15
17 Throwins 10
22 Dribble Attempts 19
6 Goal Kicks 12
9 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 2

Attacking

105 Attacks 61

Possession

9 Key Passes 5
319 Successful Passes 183
380 Passes 249
84 Successful Passes Percentage 73
46 Long Passes 49
26 Successful Long Passes 15
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

Defensive

6 Interceptions 13
20 Tackles 21
4 Saves 3

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 2
18 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

1
Julián Cuesta
Julián Cuesta Goalkeeper
6.1
3
Kenneth Paal
Kenneth Paal Defender
6.05
4
Hüseyin Türkmen
Hüseyin Türkmen Defender
6.67
7
Bünyamin Balcı
Bünyamin Balcı Defender
6.69
10
Abdülkadir Ömür
Abdülkadir Ömür
Midfielder80'
6.62
89
Veysel Sarı
Veysel Sarı (C) Defender
6.31
6
Soner Dikmen
Soner Dikmen Midfielder
6.49
23
Jesper Ceesay
Jesper Ceesay Midfielder
6.6
8
Ramzi Safuri
Ramzi Safuri
Midfielder63'
7.23
88
Dario Saric
Dario Saric Midfielder
6.22
17
Erdoğan Yeşilyurt
Erdoğan Yeşilyurt
Midfielder85'
6.69
11
Samuel Ballet
Samuel Ballet Attacker
6.05
22
Sander van de Streek
Sander van de Streek Attacker
6.94
26
Nikola Storm
Nikola Storm Attacker
7.12
70
Doğukan Sinik
Doğukan Sinik
Attacker63'
6.92
Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

71
Burak Bozan
Burak Bozan Goalkeeper
6.65
2
Luis Pérez
Luis Pérez Defender
6.77
4
Arda Kızıldağ
Arda Kızıldağ Defender
6.29
11
Christopher Lungoyi
Christopher Lungoyi Defender
6.6
32
Yusuf Kabadayi
Yusuf Kabadayi
Attacker87'
14
Myenty Abena
Myenty Abena Defender
7.25
30
N. Sangaré
N. Sangaré Defender
6.56
10
Kacper Kozlowski
Kacper Kozlowski Midfielder
8.29
18
Deian Sorescu
Deian Sorescu
Attacker87'
17
Karamba Gassama
Karamba Gassama Midfielder
6.48
61
Ogün Özçiçek
Ogün Özçiçek Midfielder
6.69
8
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Midfielder75'
6.48
9
Mohamed Bayo
Mohamed Bayo Attacker
2
8.87
44
Alexandru Maxim
Alexandru Maxim (C) Attacker
7.02
3
Drissa Camara
Drissa Camara
Midfielder80'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ramzi Safuri
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90+3'
Event
Lautaro Giannetti
8th Yellowcard
90+1'
87'
Event
Yusuf Kabadayi → Christopher Lungoyi
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Deian Sorescu → Kacper Kozlowski
8th Substitution
Event
Erdoğan Yeşilyurt → Dario Saric
6th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Drissa Camara
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Abdülkadir Ömür → Bünyamin Balcı
5th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Drissa Camara → Alexandru Maxim
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Mohamed Bayo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
75'
Event
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado → Ogün Özçiçek
3rd Substitution
Event
Veysel Sarı
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
74'
65'
Event
Kacper Kozlowski
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ramzi Safuri → Jesper Ceesay
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Doğukan Sinik → Nikola Storm
2nd Substitution
63'
59'
Event
Mohamed Bayo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Samuel Ballet
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
N. Sangaré
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Christopher Lungoyi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
34'
Event
Kacper Kozlowski
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
15'
Event
Burak Yilmaz
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
13'
Event
Alexandru Maxim
Goal disallowed
7'
Event
Arda Kızıldağ
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dario Saric
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
6'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Gaziantep F.K. exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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