Almería vs Leganés Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Sun, 5 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería
ALM
2
1
1
Leganés
LEG
Full Time
Sun, 5 Apr
4:30 PM
Round 34 ·
Regular Season
Sergio Arribas - 31'
Nico Melamed - 90+1'
|
Gonzalo Melero - 13'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 17
CONTEXT
The match between Almería and Leganés has finished, with Almería securing a 2-1 victory at full-time. The two sides went into the break evenly matched at 1-1, but the home side pulled ahead in the second half to claim the win. Heading into the fixture, Almería were the clear favorites with a 60.4% pre
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Morilla Turrión
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.32
A. Gutiérrez Martino
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.32
M. Camacho Garrote
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.32
M. Herrera Ruiz
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.32
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
I. Oca Pulido
1.84
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón
Rank: 65
L
Real Sociedad II
Rank: 62
W
Huesca
Rank: 59
W
Real Zaragoza
Rank: 57
L
Cultural Leonesa
Rank: 58
W
Albacete
Rank: 66
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza
Rank: 60
D
Málaga
Rank: 69
D
Ceuta
Rank: 62
W
Real Valladolid
Rank: 60
L
SD Eibar
Rank: 69
L
Sporting Gijón
Rank: 64
D
3
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 3
3
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Almería
60.41%
Draw
22.57%
Leganés
17.02%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.08
59.6
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Leganés
Power Score
70.08
59.6
League Position
2
16
Global Rank
186
301
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Almería
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Leganés
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Almería Leganés
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Almería
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Leganés
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Almería
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Leganés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.66
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Almería
+0.33
Efficiency Index
vs
Leganés
-0.33
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Leganés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Almería
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Leganés
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Almería
Leganés
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería
Leganés
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Leganés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Almería
vs
Leganés
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Almería
Leganés
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Almería
0.30
Leganés
0.47
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Almería
Leganés
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Almería
0.06
Leganés
0.03
Almería
Leganés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Almería
ALM
Home
8
matches
Leganés
LEG
Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
14
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:40+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
3-4-3
1 A. Fernández Moreno
16 M. Ruiz
5 R. Ely
18 F. Bonini
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
S. Dzodic
#2967'
14 I. Mohammed
17 D. Lopy
J. Morcillo Conesa
#763'
2 A. Puigmal Martínez
N. Melamed Ribaudo
#1078'
11 S. Arribas Calvo
L. Carrilho Baptistão
#1263'
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
T. Gomes de Araújo
#978'
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
1 J. Soriano Oropesa
2 M. Antolín Garzón
5 I. Miquel i Pons
24 A. Diawara
17 N. García García
8 S. Cisse
C. Guirao Mora
#2678'
16 G. Melero Manzanares
M. Leiva Calvo
#3677'
22 S. Figueredo Vilar del Valle
J. Díaz Espósito
#1046'
9 D. Rodríguez Vázquez
A. Millán Iranzo
#2367'
19 D. García Campos
L. Lopes
#1129'
12 L. Nlavo Asue
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Attendance
13726
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro Morilla Turrión
Alaiz Gutiérrez Martino
Manuel Camacho Garrote
Manuel Herrera Ruiz
Next Match
Almería
vs
Racing Santander
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Away
Leganés
vs
Albacete
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 2:15 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
ALM
65%
LEG
35%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
2
Big Chances Created
1
5
Shots
6
60
Dangerous attacks
17
68
Possession
32
5
Corners
1
11
Free kicks
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
3
Goal Kicks
14
30
Throwins
18
45
Successful Dribbles Percentage
23
9
Successful Dribbles
3
20
Dribble Attempts
13
5
Substitutions
5
2
Assists
1
75
Ball Safe
64
0
Injuries
2
15
Goal Attempts
5
Attacking
135
Attacks
78
1
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
86
Successful Passes Percentage
69
466
Successful Passes
172
540
Passes
250
56
Long Passes
62
12
Key Passes
3
37
Successful Long Passes
23
66
Successful Long Passes Percentage
37
Defensive
3
Interceptions
10
21
Tackles
19
2
Saves
5
64
Duels Won
45
Build-up
20
Total Crosses
10
5
Accurate Crosses
1
Discipline
1
Offsides
2
13
Fouls
11
Lineup
Referee :
Alejandro Morilla Turrión
Manager ▼
J. Ferrer Sicilia
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Andrés Fernández
Goalkeeper
3
Álex Muñoz
Defender
5
Rodrigo Ely
Defender
16
Marcos Luna
Defender
18
Federico Bonini
Defender
2
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder
7Jon Morcillo
Attacker63'
11
Sergio Arribas
Midfielder
10Nico Melamed
Midfielder78'
14
Iddrisu Baba
Midfielder
29Stefan Dzodic
Midfielder67'
17
Dion Lopy
Midfielder
23
Adrián Embarba
Midfielder
12Léo Baptistão
Attacker63'
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Attacker
9Thalys
Attacker78'
Substitutes ▼
13
Fernando Martínez
Goalkeeper
4
Nélson Monte
Defender
20
Álex Centelles
Defender
21
Chumi
Defender
22
Daijiro Chirino
Defender
6
André Horta
Midfielder
19
Patrick Soko
Attacker
Referee :
Alejandro Morilla Turrión
Manager ▼
I. Oca Pulido
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Juan Soriano
Goalkeeper
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Defender
5
Ignasi Miquel
Defender
24
Amadou Diawara
Defender
8
Seydouba Cissé
Midfielder
16
Gonzalo Melero
Midfielder
26Carlos Guirao
Midfielder78'
17
Naim García
Midfielder
22
Sebastián Figueredo
Midfielder
36Marcos Leiva Calvo
Midfielder77'
9
Dani Rodríguez
Attacker
10Juan Cruz
Midfielder46'
12
Luis Asué
Attacker
11Duk
Attacker29'
19
Diego García
Attacker
23Álex Millán
Attacker67'
Substitutes ▼
13
Miguel San Román
Goalkeeper
31
Javi Garrido
Goalkeeper
15
Enric Franquesa
Defender
46
Samuel Almarza Bayón
Defender
14
Roberto López
Midfielder
20
Óscar Plano
Attacker
21
Andrés Campos
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Nico Melamed
5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Nico Melamed
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
Léo Baptistão
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
10th Substitution
78'
Nico Melamed → Sergio Arribas
9th Substitution
78'
78'
Carlos Guirao → Gonzalo Melero
8th Substitution
77'
Marcos Leiva Calvo → Sebastián Figueredo
7th Substitution
Stefan Dzodic → Iddrisu Baba
5th Substitution
67'
67'
Álex Millán → Diego García
6th Substitution
Rodrigo Ely
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Léo Baptistão → Adrián Embarba
3rd Substitution
63'
Jon Morcillo → Arnau Puigmal
4th Substitution
63'
46'
Juan Cruz → Dani Rodríguez
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Seydouba Cissé
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Sergio Arribas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
29'
Duk → Luis Asué
1st Substitution
21'
Sebastián Figueredo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
13'
Gonzalo Melero
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Almería exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.