Albacete vs Burgos Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Carlos Belmonte Sat, 4 Apr - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Albacete ALB
2 Winner 3
Burgos BUR
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:15 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Oier Luengo - 31' (Own Goal)
Alex Rubio - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
Kévin Appin - 13'
Fer Niño - 45+2'
Álex Lizancos - 71'

CONTEXT

The match between Albacete and Burgos has finished, concluding with a 1-1 draw at full-time. Interestingly, despite match data indicating a 1-2 halftime deficit for the home side, the final score settled at an even 1-1. This result did not align with the pre-match market, which favored Albacete with a 38.4% win probability, compared to a 31.5% chance for a draw and just 30.1% for a Burgos victory. Albacete controlled the ball for the majority of the contest, finishing with 54% possession to Burgos's 46%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams, it cannot be determined whether the drawn outcome aligned with the quality of scoring chances created. Despite this missing data, the match's overall efficiency shift was evaluated to be completely in line with baseline expectations. The flow of the game was uninterrupted by major disciplinary issues, as neither team received a red card. Burgos ultimately asserted themselves as the stronger team relative to their pre-match projections. By forcing a draw on the road, the away side engineered a significant deviation level of 68.5%,

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. García Andreu
C. García Andreu
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
L. Bestard Servera
L. Bestard Servera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
V. Jiménez Rivero
V. Jiménez Rivero
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
S. Escriche Guzmán
S. Escriche Guzmán
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Albacete A. González Fernández
A. González Fernández
VS
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.62
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: 58 D
Castellón Rank: 66 D
Racing Santander Rank: 72 W
Las Palmas Rank: 69 W
Huesca Rank: 58 D
Almería Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ceuta Rank: 61 D
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Córdoba Rank: 62 W
SD Eibar Rank: 67 D
Mirandés Rank: 58 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 61 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Albacete
38.38%
Draw
31.53%
Away Burgos
30.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.74
67.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Albacete
Burgos
Power Score
65.74
67.97
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
295
238

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Albacete — Opponent-weighted form score
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Albacete Burgos

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Albacete

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Albacete ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.41
18.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.70
17.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Albacete -0.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Burgos +0.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Albacete
Burgos
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Albacete ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Albacete Burgos
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Albacete Burgos
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Albacete
Burgos
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Albacete
vs
Burgos
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Albacete Burgos
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Albacete 0.15
Burgos 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Albacete Burgos
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Albacete 0.09
Burgos 0.04
Albacete
Burgos
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Albacete ALB Home
7 matches
Burgos BUR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
3
Goals
7
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
7
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
R. Lizoáin Cruz
Spain
13 R. Lizoáin Cruz
F. Gámez López
Substitution
Spain
15 F. Gámez López
J. Moreno Arrones Gil
Spain
5 J. Moreno Arrones Gil
J. Vallejo Lázaro
Substitution
Spain
24 J. Vallejo Lázaro
C. Neva Tey
Spain
21 C. Neva Tey
J. Gomez
United States
3 J. Gomez
V. San Bartolomé Prieto
Substitution
Spain
14 V. San Bartolomé Prieto
M. Fernández Figueira
Substitution
Uruguay
8 M. Fernández Figueira
A. Pacheco Ruiz
Spain
6 A. Pacheco Ruiz
A. Rubio Roldan
Spain
19 A. Rubio Roldan
J. Betancor Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Betancor Sánchez
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
F. Miguel
France
12 F. Miguel
G. Sierra Pérez
Spain
8 G. Sierra Pérez
O. Luengo Redondo
Spain
3 O. Luengo Redondo
A. Lizancos Saldaña
Spain
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
K. Appin
Substitution
Martinique
10 K. Appin
M. Atienza Villa
Spain
5 M. Atienza Villa
P. Galdames Millán
Substitution
Chile
4 P. Galdames Millán
D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
Substitution
Spain
14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez
F. Niño Rodriguez
Substitution
Spain
9 F. Niño Rodriguez

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Carlos Belmonte
Capacity
17524
Attendance
9562
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Christian García Andreu
Lluís Bestard Servera
Víctor Jiménez Rivero
Sergio Escriche Guzmán

Statistics

Possession
ALB
51%
BUR
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 4
48 Dangerous attacks 32
54 Possession 46
5 Corners 2
17 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 10
35 Throwins 20
7 Goal Kicks 13
3 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 5
74 Ball Safe 93
21 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
0 Injuries 1
5 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

104 Attacks 101

Possession

5 Key Passes 6
364 Successful Passes 336
71 Long Passes 65
80 Successful Passes Percentage 82
33 Successful Long Passes 32
455 Passes 410
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
1 Saves 0
4 Interceptions 13
50 Duels Won 48

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

13
Raúl Lizoain
Raúl Lizoain Goalkeeper
3
Jonathan Gómez
Jonathan Gómez Defender
5
Javi Moreno
Javi Moreno Defender
15
Fran Gámez
Fran Gámez Defender
2
Lorenzo Aguado
Lorenzo Aguado
Defender79'
21
Carlos Neva
Carlos Neva Defender
24
Jesús Vallejo
Jesús Vallejo Defender
17
Ale Meléndez
Ale Meléndez
Midfielder61'
6
Antonio Pacheco
Antonio Pacheco Midfielder
8
Martín Fernández
Martín Fernández Midfielder
7
Antonio Puertas
Antonio Puertas
Attacker62'
14
Victor San Bartolome Prieto
Victor San Bartolome Prieto Midfielder
20
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa
Attacker79'
10
Jefté Betancor
Jefté Betancor Attacker
16
José Carlos Lazo
José Carlos Lazo
Attacker62'
19
Alex Rubio
Alex Rubio Attacker
Referee : Lluís Bestard Servera

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Defender
3
Oier Luengo
Oier Luengo Defender
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Defender
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Defender
4
Pablo Galdames
Pablo Galdames Midfielder
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba
Midfielder64'
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza Midfielder
10
Kévin Appin
Kévin Appin Midfielder
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante
Midfielder64'
14
David González
David González Midfielder
15
Aitor Buñuel
Aitor Buñuel
Defender89'
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
28
Saúl del Cerro
Saúl del Cerro
Midfielder79'
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Attacker
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo
Attacker79'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alex Rubio
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
7th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Iñigo Córdoba
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Aitor Buñuel → David González
10th Substitution
Event
Pepe Sánchez
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa → Victor San Bartolome Prieto
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Lorenzo Aguado → Fran Gámez
6th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Víctor Mollejo → Curro Sánchez
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Saúl del Cerro → Fer Niño
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Álex Lizancos
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Alex Rubio
Goal awarded
64'
64'
Event
Iñigo Córdoba → Pablo Galdames
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Iván Morante → Kévin Appin
5th Substitution
Event
Alex Rubio
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
63'
Event
José Carlos Lazo → Jefté Betancor
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Antonio Puertas → Martín Fernández
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Ale Meléndez → Jesús Vallejo
1st Substitution
61'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Fer Niño
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Martín Fernández
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Oier Luengo
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
31'
27'
Event
Miguel Atienza
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jesús Vallejo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
13'
Event
Kévin Appin
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Burgos exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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