AGF vs Brøndby IF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Vejlby Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 5:00 PM
Superliga
AGF AGF
0 – 0
Brøndby IF BIF
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:00 PM
Round 2 Championship Round

CONTEXT

The match has finished with AGF and Brøndby IF playing out a 0-0 draw at full-time. Given the pre-match market expectations, this scoreless result represents a significant deviation for AGF. The hosts entered the contest as clear favorites, holding a 54.7% implied probability of victory, compared to just a 24.6% chance for a draw and 20.8% for an away win. Ultimately, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match betting market. Despite controlling the match with 60% possession compared to Brøndby IF's 40%, AGF struggled to translate their time on the ball into dangerous scoring opportunities. The underlying metrics highlight a remarkably tight defensive battle, with AGF marginally edging the expected goals (xG) 0.79 to 0.76. Because both squads lacked high-quality chances, the final scoreline was completely consistent with the match's xG figures. Furthermore, the attacking efficiency shift was in line with expectations, as neither team managed to find a clinical breakthrough in the final third. The tactical battle remained purely 11-on-11, with no red cards issued to either side, ensuring that disciplinary issues did not impact this hard-fought stalemate.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AGF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
VS
Brøndby IF S. Cooper
S. Cooper
2.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 W
Viborg FF Rank: 65 W
Fredericia Rank: 53 D
Odense BK Rank: 58 W
Randers FC Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viborg FF Rank: 62 L
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 D
Viborg FF Rank: 65 L
Randers FC Rank: 61 D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 15 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AGF
54.65%
Draw
24.59%
Away Brøndby IF
20.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.59
65.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AGF
Brøndby IF
Power Score
70.59
65.93
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
183
304

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Brøndby IF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF Brøndby IF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brøndby IF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brøndby IF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.17
34.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.50
28.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AGF -0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Brøndby IF +0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Brøndby IF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF
vs
Brøndby IF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AGF Brøndby IF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AGF Brøndby IF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
AGF
Brøndby IF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 54 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AGF AGF Home
54 matches
Brøndby IF BIF Away
Match Record
17
Wins
22
15
Draws
15
22
Losses
17
Goals
67
Goals Scored
80
80
Goals Conceded
67
-13
Goal Difference
+13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Hansen
Denmark
1 J. Hansen
F. Beijmo
Sweden
2 (C) F. Beijmo
H. Dalsgaard
Denmark
3 H. Dalsgaard
E. Kahl
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
G. Links
South Africa
11 G. Links
M. Knudsen
Substitution
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
K. Yakob
Substitution
Iraq
17 K. Yakob
F. Emmery Søgaard
Substitution
39 F. Emmery Søgaard
T. Kristensen
Substitution
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
J. Serra
Substitution
Germany
13 J. Serra
K. Malt Arnstad
Norway
10 K. Malt Arnstad
P. Pentz
Austria
1 P. Pentz
M. Köhlert
Substitution
Germany
27 M. Köhlert
L. Binks
England
4 L. Binks
B. Godfrey
England
14 B. Godfrey
O. Villadsen
Denmark
2 O. Villadsen
D. Wass
Substitution
Denmark
10 (C) D. Wass
B. Slisz
Poland
99 B. Slisz
O. Sow
Substitution
France
22 O. Sow
N. Vallys
Denmark
7 N. Vallys
M. Divković
Croatia
24 M. Divković
J. Brøchner Ambæk
Substitution
38 J. Brøchner Ambæk

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
Vejlby Stadion
Capacity
11500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jacob Karlsen
Daniel Cortzen
Jacob Rasmussen
Jakob Mastrup

Statistics

Possession
AGF
56%
BIF
44%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 8
38 Dangerous attacks 56
60 Possession 40
7 Corners 5
18 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 2
7 Dribble Attempts 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
14 Goal Attempts 10
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
11 Goal Kicks 7
17 Throwins 24
87 Ball Safe 68
1 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

92 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

25 Successful Long Passes 21
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
82 Successful Passes Percentage 76
11 Key Passes 9
371 Successful Passes 231
454 Passes 304
54 Long Passes 48

Defensive

5 Tackles 15
2 Saves 6
10 Interceptions 9

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 8
26 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

14 Fouls 18
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Jacob Karlsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesper Hansen
Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper
7.16
2
Felix Beijmo
Felix Beijmo (C) Defender
7.45
3
Henrik Dalsgaard
Henrik Dalsgaard Defender
7.24
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
7.09
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
7.04
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen
Midfielder86'
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
6.75
17
Kevin Yakob
Kevin Yakob Midfielder
6.55
6
Nicolai Poulsen
Nicolai Poulsen
Midfielder56'
6.89
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Midfielder
6.96
29
Rasmus Carstensen
Rasmus Carstensen
Defender56'
6.7
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad Attacker
7.04
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra Attacker
6.54
9
Patrick Mortensen
Patrick Mortensen
Attacker75'
7.04
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
6.95
20
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Attacker86'
Referee : Jacob Karlsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Pentz
Patrick Pentz Goalkeeper
8.24
2
Oliver Villadsen
Oliver Villadsen Defender
7.04
4
Luis Binks
Luis Binks Defender
7.15
14
Ben Godfrey
Ben Godfrey Defender
6.8
27
Mats Köhlert
Mats Köhlert Defender
6.87
30
Jordi Vanlerberghe
Jordi Vanlerberghe
Defender78'
6.59
7
Nicolai Vallys
Nicolai Vallys Midfielder
7.22
10
Daniel Wass
Daniel Wass (C) Midfielder
6.69
42
Mathias Jensen
Mathias Jensen
Midfielder65'
6.78
22
Ousmane Sow
Ousmane Sow Midfielder
6.98
23
Mayckel Lahdo
Mayckel Lahdo
Attacker77'
6.53
24
Marko Divkovic
Marko Divkovic Midfielder
6.95
99
Bartosz Slisz
Bartosz Slisz Midfielder
7.21
38
Jacob Ambaek
Jacob Ambaek Attacker
6.45
19
Sho Fukuda
Sho Fukuda
Attacker87'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Sho Fukuda → Jacob Ambaek
9th Substitution
Event
Sebastian Jørgensen → Magnus Knudsen
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson → Tobias Bech
8th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Luis Binks
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Jordi Vanlerberghe → Mats Köhlert
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Mayckel Lahdo → Ousmane Sow
5th Substitution
Event
Tobias Bech
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Patrick Mortensen → Janni Serra
4th Substitution
75'
66'
Event
Mathias Jensen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
65'
Event
Mathias Jensen → Daniel Wass
3rd Substitution
Event
Rasmus Carstensen → Frederik Emmery
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Nicolai Poulsen → Kevin Yakob
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Gift Links
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
52'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Ousmane Sow
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Var
23'
Event
Mats Köhlert
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
20'
Event
Bartosz Slisz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AGF exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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