AEK Athens vs Celje Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
OPAP Arena Thu, 19 Mar - 5:45 PM
Europa Conference League
AEK Athens AEK
0 Winner 2
Celje Celje
Full Time Thu, 19 Mar 5:45 PM
Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 2
|
Goal
Nikita Iosifov - 13'
Rudi Pozeg Vancas - 42'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. AEK Athens 0–2 Celje. The result saw Celje take the points. Celje showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celje showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: AEK Athens 74.6% | Draw 15.4% | Celje 10.1%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
AEK Athens M. Nikolić
M. Nikolić
VS
Celje I. Maevski
I. Maevski
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celje Rank: 68 W
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 71 W
Samsunspor Rank: 70 W
Fiorentina Rank: 76 W
Shamrock Rovers Rank: D
Aberdeen Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
AEK Athens Rank: 78 L
Drita Rank: 57 W
Drita Rank: 56 W
Shelbourne Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: 71 L
Sigma Olomouc Rank: 59 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AEK Athens
74.59%
Draw
15.35%
Away Celje
10.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.85
69.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AEK Athens
Celje
Power Score
76.85
69.75
League Position
3
13
Global Rank
76
184

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AEK Athens — Opponent-weighted form score
Celje — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AEK Athens Celje

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AEK Athens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celje

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AEK Athens ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celje
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.00
12.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.19
40.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AEK Athens +2.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Celje -2.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AEK Athens
Celje
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AEK Athens ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celje
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AEK Athens Celje
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AEK Athens Celje
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AEK Athens
Celje
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AEK Athens AEK Home
2 matches
Celje Celje Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
5
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-20T00:07:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
T. Strakosha
Albania
1 T. Strakosha
L. Rota
Greece
12 L. Rota
H. Moukoudi
Cameroon
2 H. Moukoudi
F. Bem Relvas Vito Oliveira
Portugal
44 F. Bem Relvas Vito Oliveira
S. Pilios
Greece
3 S. Pilios
O. Pineda Alvarado
Mexico
13 O. Pineda Alvarado
R. Marin
Romania
18 R. Marin
M. Gaćinović
Substitution
Serbia
8 M. Gaćinović
A. Koita
Mauritania
11 A. Koita
D. Kutesa
Substitution
Switzerland
7 D. Kutesa
L. Jović
Serbia
9 L. Jović
S. Sluga
Croatia
21 S. Sluga
J. Nieto Zarzoso
Substitution
Spain
2 J. Nieto Zarzoso
A. Tutyškinas
Lithuania
6 A. Tutyškinas
D. Vukliševič
Slovenia
3 D. Vukliševič
Ł. Bejger
Poland
44 Ł. Bejger
I. Ćalušić
Substitution
Croatia
27 I. Ćalušić
S. Sešlar
Substitution
Slovenia
10 S. Sešlar
P. Daniel
Nigeria
13 P. Daniel
R. Vancaš Požeg
Slovenia
94 R. Vancaš Požeg
M. Poplatnik
Substitution
Slovenia
99 M. Poplatnik
N. Iosifov
Substitution
Russia
20 N. Iosifov

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 19, 2026, 05:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 2
Stadium
OPAP Arena
Capacity
32500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Simone Sozza

Statistics

Possession
AEK
46%
Celje
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
64 Dangerous attacks 19
43 Possession 57
11 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
10 Throwins 16
16 Dribble Attempts 15
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Goal Kicks 7
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
7 Successful Dribbles 8
2 Substitutions 5
60 Ball Safe 90
9 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
109 Attacks 85

Possession

349 Successful Passes 498
86 Successful Passes Percentage 87
14 Successful Long Passes 23
405 Passes 573
33 Long Passes 40
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
12 Key Passes 3

Defensive

17 Tackles 18
1 Saves 5
12 Interceptions 6

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
30 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

1
Thomas Strakosha
Thomas Strakosha Goalkeeper
2
Harold Moukoudi
Harold Moukoudi Defender
3
Stavros Pilios
Stavros Pilios Defender
12
Lazaros Rota
Lazaros Rota Defender
44
Filipe Relvas
Filipe Relvas Defender
7
Dereck Kutesa
Dereck Kutesa Midfielder
19
Niclas Eliasson
Niclas Eliasson
Midfielder52'
8
Mijat Gacinovic
Mijat Gacinovic Midfielder
20
Petros Mantalos
Petros Mantalos
Midfielder53'
11
Aboubakary Koita
Aboubakary Koita Midfielder
13
Orbelín Pineda
Orbelín Pineda Midfielder
18
Răzvan Marin
Răzvan Marin Midfielder
9
Luka Jović
Luka Jović Attacker
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

21
Simon Sluga
Simon Sluga Goalkeeper
2
Juanjo Nieto
Juanjo Nieto Defender
4
Darko Hrka
Darko Hrka
Midfielder46'
3
Damjan Vuklisevic
Damjan Vuklisevic Defender
6
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Artemijus Tutyškinas Defender
44
Lukasz Bejger
Lukasz Bejger Defender
10
Svit Seslar
Svit Seslar Midfielder
8
Mario Kvesic
Mario Kvesic
Midfielder62'
13
Papa Daniel
Papa Daniel Midfielder
27
Ivan Ćalušić
Ivan Ćalušić Midfielder
23
Zan Karnicnik
Zan Karnicnik
Defender77'
20
Nikita Iosifov
Nikita Iosifov Attacker
11
Milot Avdyli
Milot Avdyli
Midfielder46'
94
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Rudi Pozeg Vancas Attacker
99
Matej Poplatnik
Matej Poplatnik Attacker
47
Armandas Kucys
Armandas Kucys
Attacker66'

Events

2ND-HALF
77'
Event
Zan Karnicnik → Ivan Ćalušić
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Armandas Kucys → Matej Poplatnik
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Mario Kvesic → Svit Seslar
5th Substitution
Event
Petros Mantalos → Mijat Gacinovic
4th Substitution
53'
Event
Niclas Eliasson → Dereck Kutesa
3rd Substitution
52'
46'
Event
Milot Avdyli → Nikita Iosifov
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Darko Hrka → Juanjo Nieto
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Mijat Gacinovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
23'
Event
Ivan Ćalušić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
13'
Event
Nikita Iosifov
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a play that resulted in a deflection off Artemijus Tutyskinas.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, with AEK Athens trailing Celje by a score of 0 to 2.
90
Corner Corner
A shot attempt by Luka Jovic from AEK Athens has been denied. He fired a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Simon Sluga from Celje made a great save, stopping it in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Orbelín Pineda.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Simon Sluga allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Lazaros Rota from AEK Athens takes a right-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. He received assistance from Petros Mantalos.
88
Update Update
Luka Jovic of AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
88
Update Update
Niclas Eliasson from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
85
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Rudi Pozeg Vancas from Celje takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the right of the goal. He was assisted by Mario Kvesic.
81
Update Update
Lukasz Bejger from Celje commits a foul.
81
Update Update
Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens earns a free kick on the left flank.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Zan Karnicnik comes on to take the place of Ivan Calusic.
74
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a defensive play by Damjan Vuklisevic.
72
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Niclas Eliasson from AEK Athens took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but couldn't find the target.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to AEK Athens after a play that resulted in a deflection off Artemijus Tutyskinas.
68
Update Update
Rudi Pozeg Vancas from Celje commits a foul.
68
Update Update
Niclas Eliasson of AEK Athens earns a free kick on the right flank.
66
Update Update
Milot Avdyli from Celje commits a foul.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Armandas Kucys comes on to take the place of Matej Poplatnik.
66
Update Update
Aboubakary Koïta of AEK Athens is awarded a free kick on the left flank.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Mario Kvesic comes on to take the place of Svit Seslar.
62
Update Update
Petros Mantalos from AEK Athens commits a foul.
62
Update Update
Ivan Calusic from Celje is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
61
Update Update
Damjan Vuklisevic from Celje commits a foul.
61
Update Update
Luka Jovic from AEK Athens earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
59
Update Update
Matej Poplatnik from Celje earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
59
Update Update
Petros Mantalos from AEK Athens commits a foul.
58
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Darko Hrka allowed the ball to go out of play.
54
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Svit Seslar allowed the ball to go out.
53
Attempt Attempt
The shot was blocked. Razvan Marin from AEK Athens made a right-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, but Simon Sluga from Celje managed to save it, denying the effort aimed at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Orbelín Pineda.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Athens: Petros Mantalos comes on to take the place of Mijat Gacinovic.
53
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Lukasz Bejger allowed the ball to go out.
52
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens took a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and a considerable distance on the left side.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AEK Athens: Niclas Eliasson comes on to take the place of Dereck Kutesa.
51
Update Update
Offside call against Celje. Svit Seslar has been flagged for being in an offside position.
48
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens takes a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
46
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens tries to score with his left foot from the middle of the penalty area, but the attempt is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Razvan Marin from AEK Athens took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the right. He was assisted by Dereck Kutesa.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be no additional time added.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Darko Hrka comes on to take the place of Juanjo Nieto.
45
Update Update
The first half concludes with AEK Athens trailing 0-2 against Celje.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celje: Milot Avdyli comes on to take the place of Nikita Iosifov.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Razvan Marin of AEK Athens took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right. The attempt was set up by Stavros Pilios after a set piece.
43
Update Update
Razvan Marin from AEK Athens earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Razvan Marin from AEK Athens took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The chance was created by Stavros Pilios after a set piece play.
42
Attempt Attempt
Goal! AEK Athens 0, Celje 2. Rudi Pozeg Vancas scores for Celje with a left-footed shot from just a few yards out, finding the center of the net. The assist came from Matej Poplatnik.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! AEK Athens 0, Celje 2. Rudi Pozeg Vancas from Celje scores with a left-footed shot from just a few yards out, finding the center of the net.
40
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Artemijus Tutyskinas allowed the ball to go out of play.
40
Attempt Attempt
Blocked attempt! Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, but it gets intercepted. The cross was set up by Dereck Kutesa.
39
Attempt Attempt
The shot was blocked. Lazaros Rota from AEK Athens took a left-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area, but it was successfully saved.
38
Update Update
Svit Seslar from Celje has been awarded a free kick in their own half.
38
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje commits a foul.
38
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
37
Update Update
Filipe Relvas from AEK Athens commits a foul.
37
Update Update
Rudi Pozeg Vancas from Celje is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
37
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens commits a foul.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mijat Gacinovic of AEK Athens receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
35
Update Update
Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
35
Update Update
Svit Seslar commits a foul for Celje.
32
Update Update
Nikita Iosifov from Celje commits a foul.
32
Update Update
Stavros Pilios from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
31
Update Update
Matej Poplatnik from Celje is awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
31
Update Update
Filipe Relvas from AEK Athens commits a foul.
29
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens commits a foul.
29
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
28
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Papa Daniel from Celje takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar.
28
Update Update
Luka Jovic commits a foul for AEK Athens.
28
Update Update
Artemijus Tutyskinas from Celje earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
27
Update Update
Mijat Gacinovic from AEK Athens commits a foul.
27
Update Update
Matej Poplatnik from Celje has been awarded a free kick in his team's defensive half.
27
Attempt Attempt
Blocked attempt. Mijat Gacinovic of AEK Athens had a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it was stopped. He was assisted by Filipe Relvas.
26
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a play that resulted in a deflection off Artemijus Tutyskinas.
25
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after a defensive play by Damjan Vuklisevic.
24
Update Update
Papa Daniel commits a foul for Celje.
24
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens earns a free kick in the offensive half of the field.
23
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
23
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda of AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ivan Calusic from Celje receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Calusic of Celje.
22
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celje after Dereck Kutesa allowed the ball to go out.
21
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda of AEK Athens commits a foul.
21
Update Update
Svit Seslar from Celje has been awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
20
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Aboubakary Koïta from AEK Athens took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The attempt was set up by Razvan Marin, who delivered a cross after a corner kick.
19
Corner Corner
A shot on goal has been thwarted. Dereck Kutesa from AEK Athens tried a left-footed strike from the center of the penalty area, but Simon Sluga of Celje made a save in the bottom left corner, with Mijat Gacinovic providing the assist.
19
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to AEK Athens after Simon Sluga allowed the ball to go out of play.
16
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens earns a free kick in his own half.
16
Update Update
Orbelín Pineda of AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celje takes the lead against AEK Athens, 1-0. Nikita Iosifov scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
12
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Orbelín Pineda from AEK Athens takes a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
11
Update Update
Papa Daniel commits a foul for Celje.
11
Update Update
Razvan Marin from AEK Athens is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
9
Update Update
Offside call against Celje. Rudi Pozeg Vancas has been flagged for being in an offside position.
6
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje is awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
6
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje is awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
5
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
4
Update Update
The match is currently paused due to an injury to Svit Seslar from Celje.
2
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje is awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
2
Update Update
Juanjo Nieto from Celje is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Celje exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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