Aalesund vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Color Line Stadion Tue, 7 Apr - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Aalesund Aalesund
2 Winner 3
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
Henrik Melland - 31'
Kristian Lonebu - 49'
Goal
|
Goal
Samuel Leach Holm - 44'
Rocco Shein - 70'
Eirik Julius Granaas - 88'

CONTEXT

The match between Aalesund and Fredrikstad has officially finished, with Fredrikstad securing a 3-2 away victory. Both teams went into the halftime break locked in a 1-1 draw, but the visitors ultimately edged out their opponents in a competitive second half. This away victory defied pre-match expectations. Aalesund entered the fixture as the market favorites with a 40.3% win probability, compared to Fredrikstad's 33.8% chance and a 25.9% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, Fredrikstad's triumph represents a significant deviation from the forecast, demonstrating that the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. On the pitch, the flow of the game was incredibly even, reflected by Fredrikstad holding a razor-thin possession advantage of 51% to Aalesund's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with the quality of chances created. However, the teams' offensive efficiency shift remained entirely in line with general match dynamics. Finally, the fixture was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to impact the tactical balance of either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fredrikstad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Jaeger
A. Jaeger
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
M. Lokkeberg
M. Lokkeberg
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
T. Halsen
T. Halsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
K. Hagenes
K. Hagenes
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.41
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Aalesund K. Rekdal
K. Rekdal
VS
Fredrikstad A. Hagen
A. Hagen
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: 50 D
Lillestrøm Rank: 50 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
KFUM Rank: 58 W
Tromsø Rank: 65 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 L
Viking Rank: 76 L
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 61 W
Kristiansund Rank: 55 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aalesund
40.32%
Draw
25.87%
Away Fredrikstad
33.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.31
62.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
Power Score
45.31
62.28
League Position
15
5
Global Rank
972
385

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score
Fredrikstad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aalesund Fredrikstad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fredrikstad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.51
19.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.71
35.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aalesund +1.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Fredrikstad -1.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredrikstad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aalesund Fredrikstad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aalesund Fredrikstad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aalesund
vs
Fredrikstad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aalesund Fredrikstad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aalesund 0.31
Fredrikstad 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aalesund Fredrikstad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aalesund 0.07
Fredrikstad 0.04
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aalesund Aalesund Home
12 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad Away
Match Record
5
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
5
Goals
19
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
19
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:01:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
K. Klaesson
Norway
1 K. Klaesson
U. Nwokoma
Substitution
Nigeria
14 U. Nwokoma
P. Aukland
Norway
45 P. Aukland
A. Hammer Kjelsen
Norway
5 A. Hammer Kjelsen
U. Valderhaug Syversen
Substitution
Norway
25 U. Valderhaug Syversen
J. Ørsal
Norway
16 J. Ørsal
M. Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
21 M. Christensen
E. Hagen
Norway
18 E. Hagen
H. Molvær Melland
Substitution
Norway
8 H. Molvær Melland
D. Jóhannsson
Substitution
Iceland
11 D. Jóhannsson
K. Lonnebu
Norway
39 K. Lonnebu
M. Børsheim
Norway
77 M. Børsheim
S. Sørløkk
Substitution
Norway
13 S. Sørløkk
F. Holmé
Substitution
Norway
4 F. Holmé
U. Fredriksen
Norway
12 U. Fredriksen
S. Rafn
Substitution
Norway
5 S. Rafn
D. Eid
Norway
16 D. Eid
H. Skogvold
Substitution
Norway
23 H. Skogvold
R. Shein
Substitution
Estonia
21 R. Shein
L. Owusu
Ghana
24 L. Owusu
O. Øhlenschlæger
Denmark
20 O. Øhlenschlæger
J. Nunez Godoy
Norway
10 J. Nunez Godoy

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 07, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Color Line Stadion
Capacity
10778
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Aleksander Jaeger
Monica Lokkeberg
Torgeir Halsen
Kristoffer Hagenes

Statistics

Possession
Aalesund
48%
Fredrikstad
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 0
48 Dangerous attacks 41
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Goal Kicks 8
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
8 Successful Dribbles 7
26 Throwins 10
2 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
90 Ball Safe 83
10 Goal Attempts 5
16 Dribble Attempts 11

Attacking

87 Attacks 112
4 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 79
12 Key Passes 6
433 Passes 457
326 Successful Passes 360
61 Long Passes 82
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
20 Successful Long Passes 31

Defensive

56 Duels Won 54
10 Tackles 18
3 Saves 4
3 Interceptions 7

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

18 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

1
Kristoffer Klaesson
Kristoffer Klaesson Goalkeeper
5
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen Defender
14
Uba Charles
Uba Charles Defender
7
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø
Midfielder64'
16
J. Ørsahl
J. Ørsahl Defender
25
Ulrik Syversen
Ulrik Syversen Defender
17
E. Myrlid
E. Myrlid
Attacker89'
45
Philip Sandvik Aukland
Philip Sandvik Aukland Defender
8
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland Midfielder
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Midfielder76'
18
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen Midfielder
21
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen Midfielder
6
Hakon Butli Hammer
Hakon Butli Hammer
Midfielder64'
11
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson Attacker
20
I. Djantou
I. Djantou
Attacker76'
39
Kristian Lonebu
Kristian Lonebu Attacker
Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Starting XI ▼

77
Martin Børsheim
Martin Børsheim Goalkeeper
4
Fredrik Holmé
Fredrik Holmé Defender
6
Samuel Leach Holm
Samuel Leach Holm
Midfielder38'
5
Simen Rafn
Simen Rafn Defender
18
Jonathan Norbye
Jonathan Norbye
Defender85'
12
Ulrik Fredriksen
Ulrik Fredriksen Defender
13
Sondre Sørløkk
Sondre Sørløkk Defender
19
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem
Defender59'
16
Daniel Eid
Daniel Eid Defender
20
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger
Oskar Öhlenschlaeger Midfielder
21
Rocco Shein
Rocco Shein Midfielder
15
Eirik Julius Granaas
Eirik Julius Granaas
Midfielder85'
23
Henrik Langaas Skogvold
Henrik Langaas Skogvold Midfielder
9
S. Laghzaoui
S. Laghzaoui
Midfielder59'
24
Leonard Owusu
Leonard Owusu Midfielder
10
Johannes Núñez
Johannes Núñez Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Eirik Julius Granaas
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Hakon Butli Hammer
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
8th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Martin Børsheim
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
E. Myrlid → Ulrik Syversen
10th Substitution
89'
88'
Event
Eirik Julius Granaas
Header / 5th Goal
85'
Event
Jonathan Norbye → Simen Rafn
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Eirik Julius Granaas → Rocco Shein
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Andreas Hagen
9th Yellowcard
Event
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch → Henrik Melland
7th Substitution
76'
Event
I. Djantou → Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
6th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Rocco Shein
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Hakon Butli Hammer → Mathias Christensen
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Kristoffer Nessø → Uba Charles
5th Substitution
64'
59'
Event
S. Laghzaoui → Henrik Langaas Skogvold
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem → Sondre Sørløkk
2nd Substitution
Event
Kristian Lonebu
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Samuel Leach Holm
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Philip Sandvik Aukland
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
38'
Event
Samuel Leach Holm → Fredrik Holmé
1st Substitution
38'
Event
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Henrik Melland
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fredrikstad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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