Nordsjælland vs Sønderjyske Fodbold Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Right to Dream Park Sun, 22 Mar - 1:00 PM
Superliga
Nordsjælland FCN
2 Winner 0
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 2 Championship Round
Ibrahim Adel - 48'
Mamadou Sadio - 72'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Nordsjælland and Sønderjyske Fodbold has finished with a 2-0 full-time victory for the home side. After a tightly contested first half that ended goalless, Nordsjælland broke the deadlock in the second period to secure the win. Heading into the fixture, the pre-match market favored Nordsjælland with a 45.1% implied probability of victory, compared to a 29.7% chance for Sønderjyske Fodbold and 25.1% for a draw. The final result firmly aligned with these pre-match market expectations. Notably, Nordsjælland recorded a significant deviation level of 54.9%, outperforming the baseline assumptions to comfortably take all three points. The underlying statistics fully supported the final scoreline, as the outcome was entirely consistent with the expected goals (xG). Nordsjælland dictated play with 57% possession and generated 1.64 xG, while the visitors managed 43% of the ball and 1.11 xG. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift remained strictly in line with expectations, reflecting a deserved victory for the stronger team based on the chances created. Finally, the match concluded cleanly without any red cards, ensuring that disciplinary issues did not artificially influence the natural flow or outcome of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nordsjælland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Nordsjælland J. Olsen
J. Olsen
VS
Sønderjyske Fodbold T. Nørgaard
T. Nørgaard
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 W
Viborg FF Rank: 65 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 D
FC København Rank: 67 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AGF Rank: 70 D
Odense BK Rank: 58 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 59 W
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 L
FC København Rank: 67 W
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 9 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nordsjælland
45.13%
Draw
25.14%
Away Sønderjyske Fodbold
29.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.04
62.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nordsjælland
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Power Score
66.04
62.12
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
299
421

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score
Sønderjyske Fodbold — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nordsjælland Sønderjyske Fodbold

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nordsjælland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sønderjyske Fodbold
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.12
38.26
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.26
34.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nordsjælland -0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold +0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nordsjælland
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nordsjælland
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nordsjælland Sønderjyske Fodbold
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nordsjælland Sønderjyske Fodbold
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Nordsjælland
Sønderjyske Fodbold
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nordsjælland FCN Home
47 matches
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON Away
Match Record
24
Wins
14
9
Draws
9
14
Losses
24
Goals
88
Goals Scored
58
58
Goals Conceded
88
+30
Goal Difference
-30
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Hansen
Denmark
13 A. Hansen
P. Ankersen
Denmark
2 P. Ankersen
T. Salquist
Denmark
3 T. Salquist
J. Meltofte Janssen
18 J. Meltofte Janssen
J. Lähteenmäki
Finland
25 J. Lähteenmäki
M. Såby Heyde
Substitution
Denmark
47 M. Såby Heyde
M. Brink Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
6 (C) M. Brink Christensen
R. Norheim
Norway
23 R. Norheim
M. Lamine Sadio
Substitution
Senegal
37 M. Lamine Sadio
I. Adel
Substitution
Egypt
14 I. Adel
P. Amoako Junior
Substitution
10 P. Amoako Junior
M. Sorensen
Denmark
16 M. Sorensen
D. Grétarsson
Substitution
Iceland
4 D. Grétarsson
P. Kristensen
Denmark
19 P. Kristensen
M. Jensen
Denmark
5 M. Jensen
S. Sylvest Wæver
Substitution
Denmark
3 S. Sylvest Wæver
A. Oggesen
Substitution
Denmark
22 A. Oggesen
T. Sommer
Denmark
26 (C) T. Sommer
A. Lyng
Substitution
Denmark
11 A. Lyng
S. Haidara
31 S. Haidara
L. Qamili
Albania
15 L. Qamili
M. Hoppe
Substitution
United States
9 M. Hoppe

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
Right to Dream Park
Capacity
9200
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Aydin Uslu
Dennis Wollenberg Rasmussen
Jonas Bæk
Svend Funder

Statistics

Possession
FCN
56%
SON
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 9
49 Dangerous attacks 49
57 Possession 43
6 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1
80 Ball Safe 60
9 Goal Attempts 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
8 Successful Dribbles 7
16 Throwins 11
7 Goal Kicks 9
16 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 3

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
106 Attacks 89

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 82
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
25 Successful Long Passes 23
45 Long Passes 52
583 Passes 435
515 Successful Passes 355
14 Key Passes 7

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
5 Saves 5
7 Interceptions 8

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 12
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

11 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Aydin Uslu

Starting XI ▼

13
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper
7.9
2
Peter Ankersen
Peter Ankersen Defender
7.71
3
Tobias Salquist
Tobias Salquist Defender
7.34
18
Justin Janssen
Justin Janssen Defender
7.7
6
Mark Brink
Mark Brink (C) Midfielder
7.15
35
Villads Rutkjaer
Villads Rutkjaer
Defender85'
6.49
23
Runar Norheim
Runar Norheim Midfielder
7.45
25
Juho Lähteenmäki
Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder
7.22
47
Malte Heyde
Malte Heyde Midfielder
6.97
29
Villum Berthelsen
Villum Berthelsen
Midfielder85'
6.55
10
Prince Amoako Junior
Prince Amoako Junior Attacker
6.36
11
Alexander Lind
Alexander Lind
Attacker46'
6.8
14
Ibrahim Adel
Ibrahim Adel Attacker
7.5
17
Levy Nene
Levy Nene
Attacker69'
7.04
37
Mamadou Sadio
Mamadou Sadio Attacker
7.52
40
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen
Attacker90+5'
Referee : Aydin Uslu

Starting XI ▼

16
Marcus Bundgaard
Marcus Bundgaard Goalkeeper
7.14
3
S. Wæver
S. Wæver Defender
6.46
13
D. Wilkins
D. Wilkins
Defender80'
6.37
4
Daníel Leó Grétarsson
Daníel Leó Grétarsson Defender
6.45
12
M. Soulas
M. Soulas
Defender35'
6.29
5
M. Jensen
M. Jensen Defender
7.41
19
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen Defender
6.37
11
A. Lyng
A. Lyng Midfielder
6.3
28
A. Pedersen
A. Pedersen
Midfielder65'
6.65
15
Lirim Qamili
Lirim Qamili Midfielder
6.44
22
A. Oggesen
A. Oggesen Midfielder
6.49
7
S. Emini
S. Emini
Midfielder65'
6.56
26
T. Sommer
T. Sommer (C) Midfielder
7.31
31
M. Haidara
M. Haidara Midfielder
7
9
M. Hoppe
M. Hoppe Attacker
6.47
24
O. Hyseni
O. Hyseni
Attacker46'
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen → Mamadou Sadio
10th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Villads Rutkjaer → Mark Brink
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Villum Berthelsen → Malte Heyde
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Peter Ankersen
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
D. Wilkins → S. Wæver
7th Substitution
Event
Mamadou Sadio
Goal awarded
73'
Event
Mamadou Sadio
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
72'
Event
Levy Nene → Ibrahim Adel
6th Substitution
69'
65'
Event
A. Pedersen → A. Lyng
4th Substitution
65'
Event
S. Emini → A. Oggesen
5th Substitution
Event
Ibrahim Adel
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
48'
Event
Alexander Lind → Prince Amoako Junior
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
O. Hyseni → M. Hoppe
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
M. Soulas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
Event
M. Soulas → Daníel Leó Grétarsson
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nordsjælland exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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