Randers FC vs Silkeborg IF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Cepheus Park Randers Sun, 22 Mar - 1:00 PM
Superliga
Randers FC RDF
0 Winner 3
Silkeborg IF SIL
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 2 Relegation Round
|
Goal
Tonni Adamsen - 28'
Callum McCowatt - 33'
Andreas Poulsen - 74'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Silkeborg IF securing a 1-0 full-time victory over Randers FC. This away triumph represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Randers FC entered the contest as clear favorites with a 51.5% implied win probability, whereas a draw sat at 25.8% and a Silkeborg IF win was given just a 22.8% chance. Consequently, the final result was completely unaligned with the pre-match market. Despite the hosts controlling the overall tempo with 59% possession, Randers FC failed to dominate the critical scoring chances. The expected goals (xG) metrics closely mirrored the actual outcome, with Silkeborg IF generating a slightly superior 1.13 xG compared to 1.09 for Randers. This confirms that the final scoreline was entirely consistent with the underlying xG data, even though Silkeborg operated with only 41% of the ball. Furthermore, the match's efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with statistical projections for the chances created. The contest remained disciplined and was unaffected by major refereeing interventions, featuring zero red cards for either side, allowing Silkeborg IF to earn their unexpected victory fairly in an eleven-versus-eleven matchup.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Silkeborg IF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Randers FC R. Bertelsen
R. Bertelsen
VS
Silkeborg IF K. Nielsen
K. Nielsen
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.71
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredericia Rank: 52 W
FC København Rank: 67 W
Fredericia Rank: 53 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 D
AGF Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 49 D
Fredericia Rank: 53 L
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 L
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 L
Viborg FF Rank: 65 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Randers FC
51.45%
Draw
25.77%
Away Silkeborg IF
22.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.13
58.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Randers FC
Silkeborg IF
Power Score
61.13
58.53
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
454
531

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Randers FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Silkeborg IF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Randers FC Silkeborg IF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Randers FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Silkeborg IF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Randers FC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Silkeborg IF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.56
33.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.41
28.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Randers FC -0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Silkeborg IF +0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Randers FC
Silkeborg IF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Randers FC
vs
Silkeborg IF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Randers FC Silkeborg IF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Randers FC Silkeborg IF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Randers FC
Silkeborg IF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Randers FC RDF Home
34 matches
Silkeborg IF SIL Away
Match Record
13
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
13
Goals
41
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
41
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
P. Izzo
Australia
1 P. Izzo
S. Osman Hansen
Denmark
24 S. Osman Hansen
D. Høegh
Denmark
3 D. Høegh
W. Dammers
Netherlands
4 (C) W. Dammers
N. Dyhr
Substitution
Denmark
44 N. Dyhr
E. Mahmoud
Substitution
France
11 E. Mahmoud
L. Raun Pedersen
Substitution
Denmark
8 L. Raun Pedersen
J. Björkengren
Sweden
6 J. Björkengren
M. Greve
Denmark
17 M. Greve
M. Themsen
Substitution
Denmark
7 M. Themsen
W. Caddy
Substitution
Madagascar
10 W. Caddy
N. Larsen
Denmark
1 (C) N. Larsen
A. Poulsen
Denmark
2 A. Poulsen
P. Machado Ganchas
Portugal
4 P. Machado Ganchas
R. Østrøm
Norway
3 R. Østrøm
J. Gammelby
Denmark
19 J. Gammelby
C. McCowatt
Substitution
New Zealand
17 C. McCowatt
A. Vikman
Sweden
6 A. Vikman
W. Kirk
Substitution
Denmark
27 W. Kirk
Y. Bakiz
Substitution
Denmark
10 Y. Bakiz
T. Adamsen
Denmark
23 T. Adamsen
S. Brix
Substitution
Denmark
14 S. Brix

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 2 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Cepheus Park Randers
Capacity
12000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Mikkel Redder
Nanna Løf Andersen
Rene Risum
Andreas Bøgebjerg

Statistics

Possession
RDF
58%
SIL
42%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 1
13 Shots 12
77 Dangerous attacks 34
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 4
83 Ball Safe 78
9 Goal Kicks 11
16 Dribble Attempts 12
8 Successful Dribbles 9
0 Assists 2
24 Throwins 11
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
5 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
141 Attacks 94
0 Counter Attacks 3

Possession

524 Successful Passes 342
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
85 Successful Passes Percentage 78
618 Passes 440
84 Long Passes 61
53 Successful Long Passes 15
7 Key Passes 9

Defensive

10 Interceptions 12
12 Tackles 20
1 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
25 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Mikkel Redder

Starting XI ▼

1
Paul Izzo
Paul Izzo Goalkeeper
6.07
3
Daniel Høegh
Daniel Høegh Defender
6.96
4
Wessel Dammers
Wessel Dammers (C) Defender
6.88
24
Sabil Hansen
Sabil Hansen Defender
6.12
44
Nikolas Dyhr
Nikolas Dyhr Defender
6.14
15
M. Sjølstad
M. Sjølstad
Defender46'
6.29
6
John Björkengren
John Björkengren Midfielder
7.1
8
Laurits Pedersen
Laurits Pedersen Midfielder
6.45
28
André Römer
André Römer
Midfielder46'
6.74
11
Elies Mahmoud
Elies Mahmoud Midfielder
7.1
33
Cyril Edudzi
Cyril Edudzi
Attacker83'
6.5
17
Mathias Greve
Mathias Greve Midfielder
6.9
7
Mike Themsen
Mike Themsen Attacker
6.18
25
Ousseynou Fall Seck
Ousseynou Fall Seck
Midfielder46'
6.6
10
Warren Caddy
Warren Caddy Attacker
6.55
30
Thibault Klidjé
Thibault Klidjé
Attacker76'
6.65
Referee : Mikkel Redder

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicolai Larsen
Nicolai Larsen (C) Goalkeeper
7.19
2
Andreas Poulsen
Andreas Poulsen Defender
7.58
3
Robin Østrøm
Robin Østrøm Defender
7.17
4
Pedro Ganchas
Pedro Ganchas Defender
7.35
19
Jens Martin Gammelby
Jens Martin Gammelby Defender
6.9
6
Adam Wikman
Adam Wikman Midfielder
6.88
17
Callum McCowatt
Callum McCowatt Midfielder
7.52
7
Villads Westh
Villads Westh
Midfielder82'
6.55
27
William Kirk
William Kirk Midfielder
6.53
20
Mads Larsen
Mads Larsen
Midfielder60'
6.68
10
Younes Bakiz
Younes Bakiz Attacker
6.84
11
Oliver Ross
Oliver Ross
Attacker60'
6.98
14
Sofus Berger
Sofus Berger Attacker
7.89
36
Julius Lorents
Julius Lorents
Midfielder77'
6.43
23
Tonni Adamsen
Tonni Adamsen Attacker
8.08

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Cyril Edudzi → Elies Mahmoud
9th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Villads Westh → Callum McCowatt
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Julius Lorents → Sofus Berger
7th Substitution
Event
Thibault Klidjé → Warren Caddy
6th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Andreas Poulsen
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Sabil Hansen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
60'
Event
Oliver Ross → Younes Bakiz
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Mads Larsen → William Kirk
4th Substitution
Event
André Römer → Laurits Pedersen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Ousseynou Fall Seck → Mike Themsen
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
M. Sjølstad → Nikolas Dyhr
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Callum McCowatt
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
28'
Event
Tonni Adamsen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Laurits Pedersen
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Silkeborg IF exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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