Zürich vs Lugano Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Letzigrund
Sat, 11 Apr - 4:00 PM
Super League
Zürich
ZUR
0
1
1
Lugano
Lugano
Full Time
Sat, 11 Apr
4:00 PM
Round 33 ·
Regular Season
|
Renato Steffen - 61'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
The match between Zürich and Lugano is finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-1 to the visitors. The sides were level at 0-0 during the interval, but Lugano broke the deadlock after the restart to claim all three points. Lugano entered as the stronger side according to pre-match expectations, which assigned them a 46.2 share versus 28.8 for Zürich and 24.9 for the draw. The outcome represented a significant deviation in Lugano’s favor and stayed aligned with those projections. Possession was close throughout, with Zürich at 47 percent and Lugano at 53 percent, while no xG figures were recorded. The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations and no red cards or other disruptive events altered the contest. Without xG data the result could not be measured against expected goals, yet the narrow away victory was consistent with Lugano’s overall edge and the pre-match view that they were the more likely winners.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Lugano showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Wolfensberger
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.43
D. Känel
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.43
L. Schmid
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.43
D. Grundbacher
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.43
D. Hediger
VS
M. Croci-Torti
0.88
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.83
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen
Rank:
L
Thun
Rank:
W
Sion
Rank:
L
Servette
Rank:
L
Lausanne Sport
Rank:
L
Young Boys
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun
Rank:
W
Young Boys
Rank:
D
St. Gallen
Rank:
D
Luzern
Rank:
L
Sion
Rank:
W
Grasshopper
Rank:
L
14
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 8 - 15
15
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Zürich
28.83%
Draw
24.94%
Lugano
46.23%
Movement
Changes since opening
Zürich
+28.64%
Draw
+19.85%
Lugano
-48.49%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.35
32.49
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zürich
Lugano
Power Score
19.35
32.49
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Zürich
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Lugano
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Zürich Lugano
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Zürich
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Lugano
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Zürich
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Lugano
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.81
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Zürich
-0.87
Efficiency Index
vs
Lugano
+0.87
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zürich
Lugano
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Zürich
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Lugano
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Zürich
Lugano
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Zürich
Lugano
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zürich
Lugano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Zürich
vs
Lugano
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Zürich
Lugano
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Zürich
0.22
Lugano
0.26
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zürich
Lugano
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Zürich
0.02
Lugano
0.00
Zürich
Lugano
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Lugano had peak pressure around 33'.
- Lugano started the game with stronger pressure.
ZUR Pressure
Lugano Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
Lugano reached the top pressure at 33' (69.12).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Zürich
ZUR
Home
37
matches
Lugano
Lugano
Away
Match Record
14
Wins
15
8
Draws
8
15
Losses
14
Goals
43
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
43
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:09:47+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-1-2
Match Formation
4-4-2
1 S. Huber
2 L. Kamberi
D. Vujevic
#3584'
42 A. Hack
27 I. Sauter
M. Bangoura
#1880'
3 L. Comenencia
23 V. Berisha
J. Perea Mendoza
#980'
15 N. Palacio
U. Emmanuel
#1184'
44 S. Walker
6 C. Tsawa
19 P. Keny
D. Reverson
#2966'
8 I. Neves Abreu Cavaleiro
1 A. Saipi
26 M. Costa Marques
3 H. Delcroix
D. Kelvin
#444'
17 L. Mai
46 M. Zanotti
27 D. dos Santos Correia
25 U. Bislimi
8 A. Grgic
E. Alioski
#789'
21 Y. Cimignani
K. Behrens
#9180'
9 G. Koutsias
M. Belhaj Mahmoud
#2980'
11 R. Steffen
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Letzigrund
Capacity
26104
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sven Wolfensberger
Daniel Von Känel
Linda Schmid
Désirée Grundbacher
Statistics
Possession
ZUR
46%
Lugano
54%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
1
0
Big Chances Created
3
3
Shots
3
27
Dangerous attacks
43
47
Possession
53
2
Corners
5
11
Free kicks
16
1
Yellow Cards
2
Match Overview
93
Ball Safe
109
16
Dribble Attempts
6
5
Successful Dribbles
4
8
Goal Kicks
7
31
Successful Dribbles Percentage
67
13
Throwins
25
4
Goal Attempts
8
5
Substitutions
5
2
Injuries
2
0
Assists
1
Attacking
94
Attacks
85
0
Big Chances Missed
2
Possession
58
Long Passes
55
79
Successful Passes Percentage
82
399
Passes
441
21
Successful Long Passes
33
36
Successful Long Passes Percentage
60
315
Successful Passes
363
4
Key Passes
10
Defensive
2
Saves
1
11
Tackles
13
6
Interceptions
13
Build-up
11
Total Crosses
18
4
Accurate Crosses
4
Discipline
16
Fouls
9
1
Offsides
4
Lineup
Referee :
Sven Wolfensberger
Manager ▼
D. Hediger
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Silas Huber
Goalkeeper
2
Lindrit Kamberi
Defender
27
Ilan Sauter
Defender
42
Alexander Hack
Defender
35David Vujevic
Defender84'
3
Livano Comenencia
Midfielder
18Mohamed Bangoura
Midfielder80'
15
Nelson Palacio
Midfielder
9Juan José Perea
Attacker80'
23
Valon Berisha
Midfielder
44
Sebastian Walker
Midfielder
11Umeh Emmanuel
Attacker84'
6
Cheveyo Tsawa
Attacker
8
Ivan Cavaleiro
Attacker
29Damienus Reverson
Attacker66'
19
Philippe Paulin Keny
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
25
Yanick Brecher
Goalkeeper
7
Bledian Krasniqi
Midfielder
14
Nevio Di Giusto
Midfielder
38
Miguel Reichmuth
Midfielder
Referee :
Sven Wolfensberger
Manager ▼
M. Croci-Torti
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Amir Saipi
Goalkeeper
3
Hannes Delcroix
Defender
17
Lukas Mai
Defender
4Damian Kelvin
Defender44'
26
Martim Marques
Defender
46
Mattia Zanotti
Defender
8
Anto Grgic
Midfielder
21
Yanis Cimignani
Midfielder
7Pablo Acebal
Defender89'
25
Uran Bislimi
Midfielder
27
Daniel Dos Santos
Midfielder
9
Georgios Koutsias
Attacker
91Kevin Behrens
Attacker80'
11
Renato Steffen
Attacker
29Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Midfielder80'
Substitutes ▼
99
Diego Mina
Goalkeeper
14
Ahmed Kendouci
Midfielder
18
Hicham Mahou
Midfielder
10
Mattia Bottani
Attacker
24
Elias Pihlström
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
10th Substitution
90'
89'
Pablo Acebal → Yanis Cimignani
9th Substitution
Umeh Emmanuel → Sebastian Walker
7th Substitution
84'
David Vujevic → Alexander Hack
8th Substitution
84'
Juan José Perea → Nelson Palacio
6th Substitution
80'
Mohamed Bangoura → Livano Comenencia
3rd Substitution
80'
80'
Kevin Behrens → Georgios Koutsias
4th Substitution
80'
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud → Renato Steffen
5th Substitution
Sebastian Walker
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
Damienus Reverson → Ivan Cavaleiro
2nd Substitution
66'
61'
Renato Steffen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Damian Kelvin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
44'
Damian Kelvin → Lukas Mai
1st Substitution
21'
Daniel Dos Santos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Lugano exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.