Zenit vs Spartak Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Gazprom Arena
Sat, 14 Mar - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Zenit
ZSP
2
0
0
Spartak Moskva
Spartak Moskva
Full Time
Sat, 14 Mar
1:00 PM
Aleksandr Sobolev - 45' (P)
Jhon Durán - 81' (P)
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
The match between Zenit and Spartak Moskva has officially finished, with Zenit securing a comfortable 2-0 victory. The hosts established their advantage early, taking a 1-0 lead into halftime before doubling their tally in the second half. Going into the fixture, Zenit was widely regarded as the stronger team. Although the specific pre-match market probabilities were registered at zero across the board, Zenit produced a significant performance deviation to secure the home win. Ultimately, the final result was fully aligned with the broader market expectations backing the home side. Stylistically, the game presented an interesting contrast. Spartak Moskva actually dictated the tempo with the ball, holding 55 percent possession compared to Zenit's 45 percent. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this matchup, meaning we cannot assess whether the outcome strictly aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, Zenit's attacking metrics showed an efficiency shift that remained completely in line with the final result, highlighting their clinical edge. Finally, the match was a disciplined affair with zero red cards issued, ensuring that dismissals did not impact the tactical flow or the game's ultimate conclusion.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Lunev
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
A. Ermilov
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
I. Tanashev
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
S. Karasev
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.55
S. Semak
VS
J. Carcedo Mardones
2.31
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.92
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg
Rank: 51
L
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rank: 66
W
Akron
Rank: 57
W
Rubin Kazan
Rank: 60
W
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Rank: 50
W
Krylya Sovetov
Rank: 55
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron
Rank: 54
W
Sochi
Rank: 50
W
Dinamo Moskva
Rank: 68
D
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rank: 66
L
CSKA Moskva
Rank: 74
W
Akhmat Grozny
Rank: 58
W
19
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 16 - 10
10
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Zenit
0%
Draw
0%
Spartak Moskva
0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.89
70.79
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zenit
Spartak Moskva
Power Score
78.89
70.79
League Position
2
6
Global Rank
67
163
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Zenit
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Spartak Moskva
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Zenit Spartak Moskva
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Zenit
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Spartak Moskva
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Zenit
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Spartak Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.55
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Zenit
+0.77
Efficiency Index
vs
Spartak Moskva
-0.77
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Spartak Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Zenit
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Spartak Moskva
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Zenit
Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Zenit
Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
2.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Spartak Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Zenit
ZSP
Home
11
matches
Spartak Moskva
Spartak Moskva
Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
5
Draws
5
1
Losses
5
Goals
23
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
23
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:45:21+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-1-4-1
16 D. Adamov
D. Kondakov
#6177'
31 G. Mantuan
6 V. Drkušić
33 M. Mota Filho
3 (C) D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
5 W. Barrios Terán
R. Vega
#6687'
8 M. Valle da Silva
L. Rosa da Silva
#1146'
10 M. Glushenkov
20 P. Silva dos Santos
I. Diveev
#7846'
14 J. dos Santos Rosa
J. Durán Palacio
#976'
7 A. Sobolev
98 A. Maximenko
O. Reabciuk
#259'
27 I. Dmitriev
68 R. Litvinov
3 C. Wooh
97 D. Denisov
18 N. Umyarov
L. Garcia
#1184'
10 J. Costa Martins
G. Carvalho Fernandes
#8359'
47 (C) R. Zobnin
M. Ugalde
#959'
35 C. Martins Pereira
T. Bongonda Mbul'Ofeko Batombo
#7771'
7 P. Solari
5 E. Barco
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium
Gazprom Arena
Capacity
68000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aleksey Lunev
Aleksey Ermilov
Inal Tanashev
Sergey Karasev
Statistics
Possession
ZSP
47%
Spartak Moskva
53%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
3
Big Chances Created
1
3
Shots
7
35
Dangerous attacks
57
45
Possession
55
2
Corners
5
17
Free kicks
9
2
Yellow Cards
4
Match Overview
5
Substitutions
5
5
Goal Attempts
8
78
Ball Safe
67
10
Goal Kicks
5
40
Successful Dribbles Percentage
48
15
Throwins
23
4
Injuries
2
4
Successful Dribbles
10
10
Dribble Attempts
21
9
Successful Headers
10
4
Penalties
0
0
Hit Woodwork
1
Attacking
85
Attacks
95
1
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
79
Successful Passes Percentage
83
348
Passes
426
50
Long Passes
27
46
Successful Long Passes Percentage
33
23
Successful Long Passes
9
274
Successful Passes
352
Defensive
22
Tackles
13
14
Interceptions
6
0
Saves
2
Build-up
10
Total Crosses
20
1
Accurate Crosses
7
Discipline
7
Fouls
20
Lineup
Referee :
Sergey Karasev
Manager ▼
S. Semak
Coach
Starting XI ▼
16
Denis Adamov
Goalkeeper
6.67 3
Douglas Santos (C)
Defender
7.29 6
Vanja Drkusic
Defender
6.85 31
Gustavo Mantuan
Defender
6.86 61Daniil Kondakov
6.37Midfielder77'
33
Nino
Defender
7.44 5
Wilmar Barrios
Midfielder
6.94 8
Wendel
Midfielder
6.98
66Román Vega
Defender87'
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Midfielder
6.5 11Luiz Henrique
6.7Attacker46'
14
Jhon Jhon
Midfielder
6.66 78Igor Diveev
6.55Defender46'
20
Pedro
Midfielder
7.96 7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Attacker
9Jhon Durán
Attacker76'
Substitutes ▼
1
Evgeniy Latyshonok
Goalkeeper
57
Bogdan Moskvichev
Goalkeeper
4
Yuriy Gorshkov
Defender
15
Vyacheslav Karavaev
Defender
28
Nuraly Alip
Defender
17
Andrey Mostovoy
Midfielder
21
Aleksandr Erokhin
Midfielder
Referee :
Sergey Karasev
Manager ▼
J. Carcedo Mardones
Coach
Starting XI ▼
98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Goalkeeper
6.3 3
Christopher Wooh
Defender
6.03
27
Igor Dmitriev
Defender
6.84 2Oleg Reabciuk
Defender59'
6.38
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Defender
6.52 97
Daniil Denisov
Defender
6.07 7
Pablo Solari
Midfielder
6.04
77Théo Bongonda
6.3Midfielder71'
10
Marquinhos
Midfielder
6.26
11Levi García
6.51Attacker84'
18
Nail Umyarov
Midfielder
6.85 35
Christopher Martins
Midfielder
6.37 9Manfred Ugalde
6.44Attacker59'
47
Roman Zobnin (C)
Midfielder
6.65 83Gedson Fernandes
6.3Midfielder59'
5
Esequiel Barco
Attacker
7.8 Substitutes ▼
32
R. Pichienko
Goalkeeper
56
Aleksandr Dovbnya
Goalkeeper
24
Nikita Massalyga
Midfielder
91
Anton Zabolotnyi
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Román Vega → Wendel
10th Substitution
87'
84'
Levi García → Marquinhos
9th Substitution
83'
Oleg Reabciuk
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Jhon Durán
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
81'
80'
Christopher Wooh
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Pedro
Penalty awarded
79'
Daniil Kondakov → Gustavo Mantuan
8th Substitution
77'
Jhon Durán → Aleksandr Sobolev
7th Substitution
76'
71'
Théo Bongonda → Pablo Solari
6th Substitution
59'
Gedson Fernandes → Roman Zobnin
3rd Substitution
59'
Oleg Reabciuk → Igor Dmitriev
4th Substitution
59'
Manfred Ugalde → Christopher Martins
5th Substitution
Luiz Henrique → Maksim Glushenkov
2nd Substitution
46'
Igor Diveev → Jhon Jhon
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Aleksandr Sobolev
4th Yellowcard
45'
Aleksandr Sobolev
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45'
43'
Pablo Solari
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Wendel
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
20'
15'
Marquinhos
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Zenit exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.