Zagłębie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin Sat, 11 Apr - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
1 Winner 0
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 3:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Marcel Regula - 4'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Zagłębie Lubin and Radomiak Radom is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. Zagłębie Lubin took the lead in the first half and held firm after the interval to secure all three points despite being out-possessed for long spells. Pre-match expectations gave Zagłębie Lubin roughly a 39 percent chance of victory, with Radomiak Radom close behind at 33 percent. The result marked a significant deviation in favor of Zagłębie Lubin, who were identified as the stronger team and duly delivered the win. Possession ended 36 percent to 64 percent in Radomiak Radom’s favor, yet the visitors could not convert their territorial dominance into chances. No expected goals data is available, so alignment with xG cannot be measured, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection. Neither team received a red card and no decisive late events altered the flow. Zagłębie Lubin’s clinical first-half finish proved the difference in an otherwise tight contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zagłębie Lubin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Kowalewski
S. Kowalewski
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
D. Rokosz
D. Rokosz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
P. Lasyk
P. Lasyk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Kuropatwa
M. Kuropatwa
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
VS
Radomiak Radom B. Nunes Baltazar
B. Nunes Baltazar
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: D
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
Katowice Rank: L
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Nieciecza Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 0 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zagłębie Lubin
39.37%
Draw
27.76%
Away Radomiak Radom
32.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zagłębie Lubin
-56.74%
Draw
+24.06%
Radomiak Radom
+32.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.91
20.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zagłębie Lubin
Radomiak Radom
Power Score
27.91
20.26
League Position
2
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zagłębie Lubin Radomiak Radom

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Radomiak Radom
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
57.92
20.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
57.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zagłębie Lubin +3.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Radomiak Radom -3.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Radomiak Radom
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Radomiak Radom
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zagłębie Lubin Radomiak Radom
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Radomiak Radom
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Radomiak Radom
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zagłębie Lubin
vs
Radomiak Radom
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zagłębie Lubin Radomiak Radom
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zagłębie Lubin 0.22
Radomiak Radom 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Radomiak Radom
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zagłębie Lubin 0.00
Radomiak Radom 0.01
Zagłębie Lubin
Radomiak Radom
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Radomiak Radom had peak pressure around 63'.
  • Zagłębie Lubin started the game with stronger pressure.
Zagłębie Lubin Pressure Radomiak Radom Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Radomiak Radom reached the top pressure at 63' (92.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Home
9 matches
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Away
Match Record
5
Wins
4
0
Draws
0
4
Losses
5
Goals
16
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
16
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:09:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
I. Orlikowski
Poland
31 I. Orlikowski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
L. Lučić
Croatia
35 L. Lučić
J. Kolan
Poland
26 J. Kolan
F. Kocaba
Substitution
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
J. Čorluka
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
M. Reguła
Substitution
Poland
44 M. Reguła
A. Radwański
Substitution
Poland
18 A. Radwański
L. Szabo
Substitution
Hungary
17 L. Szabo
F. Majchrowicz
Poland
1 F. Majchrowicz
J. Reginaldo
Substitution
Brazil
20 J. Reginaldo
A. Diéguez Grande
Spain
26 A. Diéguez Grande
J. Blasco
France
5 J. Blasco
J. Grzesik
Poland
13 J. Grzesik
R. Silva Baró
Substitution
Portugal
6 R. Silva Baró
I. Camará
Guinea
2 I. Camará
V. Fortes Lopes
Substitution
7 V. Fortes Lopes
R. Wolski
Substitution
Poland
27 R. Wolski
L. Lima Linhares
Substitution
Brazil
82 L. Lima Linhares
M. Roque Junior
Brazil
25 M. Roque Junior

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Capacity
16068
Attendance
5496
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
S. Kowalewski
Damian Rokosz
Piotr Lasyk
Maciej Kuropatwa

Statistics

Possession
Zagłębie Lubin
42%
Radomiak Radom
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 0
77 Dangerous attacks 56
36 Possession 64
1 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 24
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

14 Goal Kicks 13
2 Successful Dribbles 13
6 Dribble Attempts 23
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
18 Throwins 12
68 Ball Safe 90
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

82 Attacks 88
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

149 Successful Passes 324
63 Long Passes 62
25 Successful Long Passes 25
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
61 Successful Passes Percentage 77
245 Passes 421
12 Key Passes 9

Defensive

12 Interceptions 2
17 Tackles 10
0 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 24
5 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

23 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
31
Igor Orlikowski
Igor Orlikowski Defender
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic Defender
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Midfielder
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek
Defender88'
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski Midfielder
7
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Midfielder73'
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan Midfielder
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Midfielder
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski
Midfielder88'
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Midfielder
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder64'
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó Attacker
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis
Attacker73'
Referee : Piotr Lasyk

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Majchrowicz
Filip Majchrowicz Goalkeeper
5
Jérémy Blasco
Jérémy Blasco Defender
13
Jan Grzesik
Jan Grzesik Defender
20
João Pedro Reginaldo
João Pedro Reginaldo Defender
24
Zié Ouattara
Zié Ouattara
Defender46'
26
Adrián Diéguez
Adrián Diéguez Defender
2
Ibrahima Camará
Ibrahima Camará Midfielder
6
Romário Baró
Romário Baró Midfielder
77
Christos Donis
Christos Donis
Midfielder46'
7
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes Midfielder
19
Salifou Soumah
Salifou Soumah
Attacker68'
27
Rafal Wolski
Rafal Wolski Midfielder
15
Abdoul Tapsoba
Abdoul Tapsoba
Attacker77'
82
Luquinhas
Luquinhas Midfielder
21
Elves Baldé
Elves Baldé
Attacker86'
25
Maurides Roque Junior
Maurides Roque Junior Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jasmin Buric
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Damian Dabrowski → Filip Kocaba
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Mateusz Grzybek → Josip Corluka
10th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
Elves Baldé → Luquinhas
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Ibrahima Camará
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba → Rafal Wolski
7th Substitution
Event
Michalis Kosidis → Levente Szabó
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Sebastian Kowalczyk → Adam Radwanski
6th Substitution
73'
68'
Event
Salifou Soumah → Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
4th Substitution
Event
Jakub Sypek → Marcel Regula
3rd Substitution
64'
61'
Event
Leândro
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Adam Radwanski
3rd Yellowcard
57'
46'
Event
Christos Donis → Romário Baró
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Zié Ouattara → João Pedro Reginaldo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Adrián Diéguez
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
Event
João Pedro Reginaldo
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Marcel Regula
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zagłębie Lubin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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