WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Tivoli Stadion Tirol Sat, 21 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
WSG Tirol WSG
1 Winner 5
Grazer AK GAK
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 2 Relegation Round
N. Frederiksen - 19'
Goal
|
Goal
Jacob Italiano - 23', 65', 85' (P)
Ramiz Harakate - 39', 58' (P)

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, resulting in a 0-3 full-time score as Grazer AK secured a commanding away victory over WSG Tirol. Pre-match expectations favored the hosts, who entered the contest with a 37.6% implied win probability, compared to a 30.8% likelihood of a draw and just a 31.6% chance for Grazer AK. By claiming the victory, Grazer AK achieved a significant deviation from the pre-match betting market. Grazer AK's dominance was heavily supported by the

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Grazer AK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
WSG Tirol P. Semlic
P. Semlic
VS
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ried Rank: 51 L
Grazer AK Rank: 49 W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 49 W
Ried Rank: 52 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 W
LASK Linz Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 62 W
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 L
Ried Rank: 52 W
Hartberg Rank: 60 L
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 61 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home WSG Tirol
37.58%
Draw
30.8%
Away Grazer AK
31.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.89
52.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
WSG Tirol
Grazer AK
Power Score
52.89
52.41
League Position
7
11
Global Rank
682
698

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
WSG Tirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) WSG Tirol Grazer AK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

WSG Tirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

WSG Tirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grazer AK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
13.45
31.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.90
13.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
WSG Tirol -1.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Grazer AK +1.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
WSG Tirol
Grazer AK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

WSG Tirol
vs
Grazer AK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
WSG Tirol Grazer AK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +2.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
WSG Tirol Grazer AK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
WSG Tirol
Grazer AK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

WSG Tirol WSG Home
6 matches
Grazer AK GAK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
A. Stejskal
Czech Republic
40 A. Stejskal
M. Boras
Croatia
23 M. Boras
J. Lawrence
Germany
5 J. Lawrence
D. Kubatta
Substitution
Germany
14 D. Kubatta
L. Sulzbacher
Substitution
Austria
6 L. Sulzbacher
V. Müller
Austria
4 (C) V. Müller
J. Naschberger
Austria
17 J. Naschberger
B. Böckle
Austria
20 B. Böckle
N. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
8 N. Frederiksen
M. Wels
Austria
37 M. Wels
A. Ola-Adebomi
Substitution
England
9 A. Ola-Adebomi
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
L. Vraa-Jensen
Denmark
3 L. Vraa-Jensen
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
L. Klassen
Russia
32 L. Klassen
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
M. Olesen
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
T. Schriebl
Substitution
Austria
20 (C) T. Schriebl
J. Italiano
Substitution
Australia
14 J. Italiano
A. Hofleitner
Substitution
Austria
25 A. Hofleitner
R. Harakaté
Substitution
France
22 R. Harakaté

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 2 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Tivoli Stadion Tirol
Capacity
16008
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Markus Reichholf
Stefan Macanovic
Maximilian Kolbitsch
Harald Lechner

Statistics

Possession
WSG
43%
GAK
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 5
0 Big Chances Created 5
3 Shots 5
13 Dangerous attacks 30
42 Possession 58
0 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 3
0 Penalties 2
22 Throwins 18
15 Dribble Attempts 10
6 Goal Kicks 7
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
4 Goal Attempts 13
90 Ball Safe 93
1 Injuries 1
1 Assists 1

Attacking

81 Attacks 68
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 80
300 Passes 419
21 Successful Long Passes 29
4 Key Passes 11
220 Successful Passes 334
63 Long Passes 68
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

14 Tackles 19
4 Saves 0
8 Interceptions 3

Build-up

4 Total Crosses 12
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

40
Adam Stejskal
Adam Stejskal Goalkeeper
6.03
5
Jamie Lawrence
Jamie Lawrence Defender
5.71
14
David Kubatta
David Kubatta Defender
5.58
27
David Jaunegg
David Jaunegg
Defender68'
6.32
23
Marco Boras
Marco Boras Defender
5.84
4
Valentino Müller
Valentino Müller (C) Midfielder
6.16
6
Lukas Sulzbacher
Lukas Sulzbacher Midfielder
6.25
10
Thomas Sabitzer
Thomas Sabitzer
Attacker59'
6.36
17
Johannes Naschberger
Johannes Naschberger Midfielder
6.43
20
Benjamin Böckle
Benjamin Böckle Midfielder
6.16
8
N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen Attacker
7.33
19
Christian Huetz
Christian Huetz
Attacker68'
6.34
9
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Ademola Ola-Adebomi Attacker
6.36
16
Lukas Hinterseer
Lukas Hinterseer
Attacker59'
6.47
37
Moritz Wels
Moritz Wels Attacker
6.75
Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
6.28
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
6.78
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Defender
6.68
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
7.49
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
6.44
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
6.85
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch
Midfielder74'
6.5
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
3
8.99
28
Dominik Frieser
Dominik Frieser
Attacker87'
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl (C) Midfielder
7.74
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder87'
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
7.27
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
2
8.35
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse
Attacker81'
6.56
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner Attacker
6.81
9
Daniel Maderner
Daniel Maderner
Attacker74'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christian Huetz
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
90'
Event
Daniel Maderner
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Donovan Pines
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Murat Satin → Thorsten Schriebl
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Dominik Frieser → Jacob Italiano
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Jacob Italiano
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
84'
Event
Daniel Maderner
Penalty awarded
81'
Event
Mark Grosse → Ramiz Harakate
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Daniel Maderner → Alexander Hofleitner
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Tobias Koch → Christian Lichtenberger
5th Substitution
Event
Christian Huetz → N. Frederiksen
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
David Jaunegg → David Kubatta
4th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Jacob Italiano
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Lukas Hinterseer → Ademola Ola-Adebomi
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Thomas Sabitzer → Lukas Sulzbacher
2nd Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
56'
Event
Thorsten Schriebl
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
David Kubatta
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
23'
Event
Jacob Italiano
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
21'
Event
Christian Lichtenberger
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
N. Frederiksen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Grazer AK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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