Wisła Płock vs Lechia Gdańsk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego Fri, 10 Apr - 4:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock
1 Winner 0
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Kyriakos Savvidis - 30'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Wisła Płock and Lechia Gdańsk has finished with a 1-0 victory for the home side. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Wisła Płock secured all three points despite entering the fixture as underdogs. Lechia Gdańsk had been viewed as the stronger team with a higher projected chance of success, yet the home side produced an upset win that ran counter to the pre-match projection. Lechia Gdańsk dominated possession with 68 percent compared to Wisła Płock’s 32 percent, but they were unable to convert their territorial advantage into goals. No expected goals data was available for the match, so alignment with xG cannot be determined. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader expectations, and the first-half goal proved decisive. No red cards were shown to either team, leaving the outcome to be shaped purely by the single strike and defensive resolve from the hosts. Overall, the contest delivered an unexpected result that highlighted Wisła Płock’s ability to capitalise on limited opportunities against a favored opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Wisła Płock showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Ando
K. Ando
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
M. Hasegawa
M. Hasegawa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
K. Wójcik
K. Wójcik
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
K. Nagamine
K. Nagamine
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Wisła Płock M. Misiura
M. Misiura
VS
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Katowice Rank: L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wisła Płock
33.8%
Draw
26.89%
Away Lechia Gdańsk
39.31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Wisła Płock
-61.43%
Draw
+22.31%
Lechia Gdańsk
+39.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.71
29.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wisła Płock
Lechia Gdańsk
Power Score
23.71
29.86
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wisła Płock — Opponent-weighted form score
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wisła Płock Lechia Gdańsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Wisła Płock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Wisła Płock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.59
31.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.32
33.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Wisła Płock +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Lechia Gdańsk -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Wisła Płock
Lechia Gdańsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Wisła Płock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Wisła Płock Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Wisła Płock Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Wisła Płock
Lechia Gdańsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Wisła Płock
vs
Lechia Gdańsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Wisła Płock Lechia Gdańsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Wisła Płock 0.26
Lechia Gdańsk 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Wisła Płock Lechia Gdańsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Wisła Płock 0.00
Lechia Gdańsk 0.03
Wisła Płock
Lechia Gdańsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LGD had peak pressure around 95'.
  • LGD started the game with stronger pressure.
Wisła Płock Pressure LGD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LGD reached the top pressure at 95' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wisła Płock Wisła Płock Home
15 matches
Lechia Gdańsk LGD Away
Match Record
5
Wins
8
2
Draws
2
8
Losses
5
Goals
13
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
13
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:01:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Leszczynski
Poland
12 R. Leszczynski
M. Haglind-Sangré
Sweden
4 M. Haglind-Sangré
M. Kamiński
Poland
35 M. Kamiński
N. Mijušković
Montenegro
25 N. Mijušković
Ž. Rogelj
Slovenia
21 Ž. Rogelj
W. Nowak
Poland
30 W. Nowak
K. Savvidis
Greece
88 K. Savvidis
D. Pacheco Lobato
Substitution
Spain
8 D. Pacheco Lobato
D. Gallapeni
Substitution
Kosovo
19 D. Gallapeni
Ł. Sekulski
Substitution
Poland
20 Ł. Sekulski
D. Jurić
Substitution
Australia
99 D. Jurić
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
M. Vojtko
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
M. Rodin
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
M. Dyachuk
Ukraine
15 M. Dyachuk
T. Wójtowicz
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
R. Kapič
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 R. Kapič
A. Ćirković
Serbia
8 A. Ćirković
K. Sezonienko
Substitution
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
C. Mena Márquez
Colombia
11 C. Mena Márquez
T. Bobček
Slovakia
89 T. Bobček

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego
Capacity
10978
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kohei Ando
Masaru Hasegawa
Karol Wójcik
Koki Nagamine

Statistics

Possession
Wisła Płock
38%
LGD
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 9
35 Dangerous attacks 86
32 Possession 68
4 Corners 13
9 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 6
21 Throwins 26
4 Successful Dribbles 9
8 Dribble Attempts 16
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
4 Substitutions 2
5 Goal Attempts 5
69 Ball Safe 62

Attacking

66 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

171 Successful Passes 410
74 Successful Passes Percentage 86
8 Key Passes 12
66 Long Passes 47
31 Successful Long Passes 27
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
231 Passes 476

Defensive

10 Interceptions 3
13 Tackles 7
43 Duels Won 44
2 Saves 3

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 8
15 Total Crosses 52

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Leszczynski
Rafal Leszczynski Goalkeeper
4
Marcus Haglind-Sangré
Marcus Haglind-Sangré Defender
25
Nemanja Mijuskovic
Nemanja Mijuskovic Defender
35
Marcin Kaminski
Marcin Kaminski Defender
8
Dani Pacheco
Dani Pacheco Midfielder
14
Dominik Kun
Dominik Kun
Midfielder72'
19
Dion Gallapeni
Dion Gallapeni Midfielder
13
Quentin Lecoeuche
Quentin Lecoeuche
Defender61'
21
Zan Rogelj
Zan Rogelj Midfielder
30
Wiktor Nowak
Wiktor Nowak Midfielder
88
Kyriakos Savvidis
Kyriakos Savvidis Midfielder
20
Lukasz Sekulski
Lukasz Sekulski Attacker
6
Krystian Pomorski
Krystian Pomorski
Midfielder83'
99
Deni Jurić
Deni Jurić Attacker
9
Giannis Niarchos
Giannis Niarchos
Attacker72'
Referee : Koki Nagamine

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
15
Maksym Dyachuk
Maksym Dyachuk Defender
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic Midfielder
90
Dawid Kurminowski
Dawid Kurminowski
Attacker81'
11
Camilo Mena
Camilo Mena Midfielder
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Midfielder
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer
Midfielder59'
89
Tomas Bobcek
Tomas Bobcek Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Ivan Zhelizko
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Krystian Pomorski → Lukasz Sekulski
6th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Dawid Kurminowski → Rifet Kapic
5th Substitution
Event
Giannis Niarchos
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
75'
Event
Maksym Dyachuk
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dominik Kun → Dani Pacheco
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Giannis Niarchos → Deni Jurić
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Quentin Lecoeuche → Dion Gallapeni
2nd Substitution
61'
59'
Event
Tomasz Neugebauer → Kacper Sezonienko
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kyriakos Savvidis
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
30'
Event
Dani Pacheco
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Wisła Płock exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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