Winterthur vs Grasshopper Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadion Schützenwiese Sat, 11 Apr - 4:00 PM
Super League
Winterthur Winterthur
0 Winner 2
Grasshopper GRA
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Jonathan Asp Jensen - 18'
Michael Frey - 90+11'

CONTEXT

The match between Winterthur and Grasshopper is finished, ending 0-2 to the visitors. Grasshopper secured a straightforward away victory despite entering the contest as only slight favorites with a 40.1 percent implied win probability against Winterthur’s 33.6 percent. The result marked a significant deviation in favor of Grasshopper, who capitalized on their opportunities while Winterthur, regarded as the stronger side beforehand, collapsed after the interval. Winterthur controlled 67 percent of possession but created little threat, finishing with no goals. The contest was decisively shaped by red-card distortion, as the home team received two dismissals that altered second-half dynamics and prevented any meaningful recovery. Efficiency levels stayed in line with the adjusted circumstances, and the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection of an away success even if the margin was widened by the numerical imbalance. No xG data was available to measure underlying chance quality. The red cards ultimately defined a match that began competitively but became one-sided after halftime.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Grasshopper showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Fähndrich
L. Fähndrich
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
G. Maire
G. Maire
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
M. Bürgi
M. Bürgi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
H. Sanli
H. Sanli
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.43
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.03
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.43
Winterthur P. Rahmen
P. Rahmen
VS
Grasshopper G. Messner
G. Messner
0.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.63
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lausanne Sport Rank: L
Basel Rank: L
Luzern Rank: W
Sion Rank: D
Servette Rank: D
St. Gallen Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: L
Servette Rank: L
Thun Rank: L
Lausanne Sport Rank: L
Basel Rank: L
Lugano Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Winterthur
33.59%
Draw
26.35%
Away Grasshopper
40.06%

Movement

Changes since opening
Winterthur
+33.4%
Draw
+22.15%
Grasshopper
-55.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.57
14.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Winterthur
Grasshopper
Power Score
14.57
14.17
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Winterthur — Opponent-weighted form score
Grasshopper — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Winterthur Grasshopper

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Winterthur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grasshopper

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Winterthur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grasshopper
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.90
40.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.00
15.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Winterthur -2.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Grasshopper +2.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Winterthur
Grasshopper
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Winterthur ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grasshopper
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Winterthur Grasshopper
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Winterthur Grasshopper
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Winterthur
Grasshopper
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Winterthur
vs
Grasshopper
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Winterthur Grasshopper
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Winterthur 0.15
Grasshopper 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Winterthur Grasshopper
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Winterthur 0.05
Grasshopper 0.00
Winterthur
Grasshopper
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRA had peak pressure around 97'.
  • GRA started the game with stronger pressure.
Winterthur Pressure GRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRA reached the top pressure at 97' (79.43).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Winterthur Winterthur Home
13 matches
Grasshopper GRA Away
Match Record
7
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
7
Goals
16
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
16
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:09:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
S. Kapino
Greece
1 S. Kapino
R. Arnold
Substitution
Switzerland
16 R. Arnold
L. Mühl
Germany
5 L. Mühl
L. Lüthi
Switzerland
21 L. Lüthi
F. Rohner
Substitution
Switzerland
27 F. Rohner
A. Jankewitz
Substitution
Switzerland
45 A. Jankewitz
L. Zuffi
Switzerland
7 L. Zuffi
B. Dansoko
Guinea
11 B. Dansoko
T. Golliard
Substitution
Switzerland
8 T. Golliard
A. Hunziker
Switzerland
17 A. Hunziker
N. Burkart
Substitution
Switzerland
99 N. Burkart
J. Hammel
Switzerland
71 J. Hammel
S. Stroscio
Substitution
Switzerland
28 S. Stroscio
S. Köhler
Germany
27 S. Köhler
M. Ngom
Senegal
20 M. Ngom
A. Arigoni
Switzerland
34 A. Arigoni
A. Abrashi
Substitution
Albania
6 A. Abrashi
J. Asp Jensen
Denmark
10 J. Asp Jensen
D. Abels
Netherlands
2 D. Abels
T. Meyer
Switzerland
8 T. Meyer
S. Krasniqi
Substitution
Switzerland
54 S. Krasniqi
M. Frey
Switzerland
99 M. Frey

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Schützenwiese
Capacity
9450
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lukas Fähndrich
Guillaume Maire
Mirco Bürgi
Hüseyin Sanli

Statistics

Possession
Winterthur
61%
GRA
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 5
53 Dangerous attacks 44
67 Possession 33
3 Corners 3
22 Free kicks 8
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

31 Throwins 24
15 Dribble Attempts 16
0 Assists 2
5 Successful Dribbles 9
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
7 Goal Kicks 13
2 Injuries 3
112 Ball Safe 106
8 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

133 Attacks 79
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

52 Successful Long Passes 24
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
393 Successful Passes 167
503 Passes 243
105 Long Passes 50
78 Successful Passes Percentage 69
6 Key Passes 7

Defensive

19 Tackles 20
6 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 0

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
8 Fouls 22

Lineup

Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

1
Stefanos Kapino
Stefanos Kapino Goalkeeper
5
Lukas Mühl
Lukas Mühl Defender
16
Remo Arnold
Remo Arnold Defender
37
Elias Maluvunu
Elias Maluvunu
Midfielder75'
21
Loïc Lüthi
Loïc Lüthi Defender
7
Luca Zuffi
Luca Zuffi Midfielder
11
Bafode Dansoko
Bafode Dansoko Midfielder
27
Fabian Rohner
Fabian Rohner Midfielder
24
Silvan Sidler
Silvan Sidler
Defender84'
45
Alexandre Jankewitz
Alexandre Jankewitz Midfielder
10
Randy Schneider
Randy Schneider
Midfielder57'
8
Théo Golliard
Théo Golliard Attacker
9
Roman Buess
Roman Buess
Attacker75'
17
Andrin Hunziker
Andrin Hunziker Attacker
99
Nishan Burkart
Nishan Burkart Attacker
23
Pajtim Kasami
Pajtim Kasami
Midfielder56'
Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

71
Justin Hammel
Justin Hammel Goalkeeper
20
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom Defender
27
Sven Köhler
Sven Köhler Defender
28
Simone Stroscio
Simone Stroscio Defender
31
Maximilian Ullmann
Maximilian Ullmann
Defender68'
34
Allan Arigoni
Allan Arigoni Defender
2
Dirk Abels
Dirk Abels Midfielder
6
Amir Abrashi
Amir Abrashi Midfielder
4
Luka Mikulić
Luka Mikulić
Defender65'
8
Tim Meyer
Tim Meyer Midfielder
10
Jonathan Asp Jensen
Jonathan Asp Jensen Midfielder
54
Samuel Krasniqi
Samuel Krasniqi Midfielder
17
Óscar Clemente Mues
Óscar Clemente Mues
Midfielder64'
99
Michael Frey
Michael Frey Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+11'
Event
Michael Frey
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
P. Rahmen
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+3'
Event
Patrick Rahmen
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Michael Frey
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Stefanos Kapino
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Silvan Sidler
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Silvan Sidler → Fabian Rohner
9th Substitution
84'
79'
Event
Imourane Hassane → Óscar Clemente Mues
8th Substitution
Event
Roman Buess → Théo Golliard
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Elias Maluvunu → Remo Arnold
7th Substitution
75'
73'
Event
Dirk Abels
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Allan Arigoni
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Maximilian Ullmann → Simone Stroscio
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Luka Mikulić → Amir Abrashi
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Simone Stroscio
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Óscar Clemente Mues → Samuel Krasniqi
3rd Substitution
Event
Randy Schneider → Alexandre Jankewitz
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Pajtim Kasami → Nishan Burkart
1st Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Tim Meyer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Bafode Dansoko
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Andrin Hunziker
Goal disallowed
26'
Event
Fabian Rohner
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
18'
Event
Jonathan Asp Jensen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Grasshopper exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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