Widzew Lodz vs Nieciecza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź Sat, 11 Apr - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz
1 Winner 0
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 12:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Sebastian Bergier - 89'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz 68'

CONTEXT

The match between Widzew Lodz and Nieciecza is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. The teams were level at 0-0 at half-time before Widzew Lodz found the decisive goal after the break. Pre-match expectations positioned Widzew Lodz as clear favorites with a 61.3 percent forecast win probability against 15.8 percent for Nieciecza. The result showed significant deviation for Widzew Lodz, though they ultimately prevailed as the stronger team. Widzew Lodz held 56 percent possession to Nieciecza’s 44 percent, but no expected goals data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with projections, and the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection. Nieciecza’s red card created a clear second-half distortion that altered the contest’s balance and contributed to the narrow home victory. Overall the result aligned with the anticipated direction despite the late red-card impact.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Widzew Lodz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Stefanski
D. Stefanski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Obukowicz
M. Obukowicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
T. Niemirowski
T. Niemirowski
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Pelka
M. Pelka
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.02
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Widzew Lodz A. Vukovic
A. Vukovic
VS
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: D
Arka Gdynia Rank: D
Lech Poznań Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Widzew Lodz
61.25%
Draw
22.96%
Away Nieciecza
15.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.65
18.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Widzew Lodz
Nieciecza
Power Score
22.65
18.37
League Position
16
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Widzew Lodz — Opponent-weighted form score
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Widzew Lodz Nieciecza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Widzew Lodz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Widzew Lodz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.39
26.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.02
43.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Widzew Lodz +1.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Nieciecza -1.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Widzew Lodz
Nieciecza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Widzew Lodz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Widzew Lodz Nieciecza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Widzew Lodz Nieciecza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Widzew Lodz
Nieciecza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Widzew Lodz
vs
Nieciecza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Widzew Lodz Nieciecza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Widzew Lodz 0.23
Nieciecza 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Widzew Lodz Nieciecza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Widzew Lodz 0.00
Nieciecza 0.01
Widzew Lodz
Nieciecza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Widzew Lodz had peak pressure around 76'.
  • Widzew Lodz started the game with stronger pressure.
Widzew Lodz Pressure Nieciecza Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Widzew Lodz reached the top pressure at 76' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz Home
1 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:03:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
B. Drągowski
Poland
1 B. Drągowski
C. Muñoz Obejero
Substitution
Spain
2 C. Muñoz Obejero
P. Wisniewski
Poland
25 P. Wisniewski
S. Kapuadi
France
53 S. Kapuadi
S. Kozlovský
Slovakia
3 S. Kozlovský
E. Kornvig
Denmark
8 E. Kornvig
L. Selahi
Substitution
Albania
18 L. Selahi
J. Shehu
Albania
6 J. Shehu
F. Alvarez Rodríguez
Spain
10 F. Alvarez Rodríguez
S. Bergier
Poland
99 S. Bergier
M. Fornalczyk
Substitution
Poland
7 M. Fornalczyk
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
A. Putivtsev
Ukraine
77 A. Putivtsev
L. Masoero Masi
Argentina
5 L. Masoero Masi
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
G. Isik
Germany
29 G. Isik
M. Ambrosiewicz
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
S. Guerrero Romero
Substitution
Spain
23 S. Guerrero Romero
R. Boboc
Substitution
Romania
27 R. Boboc
J. Jiménez Núñez
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez
K. Zapolnik
Substitution
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik
I. Strzałek
Substitution
Poland
86 I. Strzałek

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź
Capacity
18018
Attendance
17841
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Stefanski
Michal Obukowicz
Tomasz Niemirowski
Maciej Pelka

Statistics

Possession
Widzew Lodz
56%
Nieciecza
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 7
86 Dangerous attacks 49
56 Possession 44
10 Corners 1
19 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
23 Throwins 22
11 Dribble Attempts 13
6 Successful Dribbles 5
75 Ball Safe 83
7 Goal Kicks 13
12 Goal Attempts 5
3 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

108 Attacks 80
5 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 24
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
14 Key Passes 7
314 Successful Passes 224
398 Passes 321
79 Successful Passes Percentage 70
56 Long Passes 65

Defensive

15 Tackles 18
15 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 7

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 3
35 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

1
Bartlomiej Dragowski
Bartlomiej Dragowski Goalkeeper
2
Carlos Isaac
Carlos Isaac Defender
9
Andi Zeqiri
Andi Zeqiri
Attacker82'
3
Samuel Kozlovský
Samuel Kozlovský Defender
25
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Przemysław Wiśniewski Defender
53
Steve Kapuadi
Steve Kapuadi Defender
6
Juljan Shehu
Juljan Shehu Midfielder
8
Emil Kornvig
Emil Kornvig Midfielder
18
Lindon Selahi
Lindon Selahi Midfielder
77
Ángel Baena
Ángel Baena
Midfielder63'
7
Mariusz Fornalczyk
Mariusz Fornalczyk Attacker
4
Mateusz Zyro
Mateusz Zyro
Defender90+2'
10
Fran Álvarez
Fran Álvarez Attacker
99
Sebastian Bergier
Sebastian Bergier Attacker
Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero Defender
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev Defender
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero Midfielder
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik
Defender85'
27
Radu Boboc
Radu Boboc Midfielder
7
Morgan Faßbender
Morgan Faßbender
Midfielder85'
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
29
Gabriel Isik
Gabriel Isik Midfielder
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
13
Krzysztof Kubica
Krzysztof Kubica
Midfielder72'
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov
Attacker85'
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek Attacker
53
Andrzej Trubeha
Andrzej Trubeha
Attacker58'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andi Zeqiri
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Stelios Andreou
6th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Mateusz Zyro → Mariusz Fornalczyk
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Sebastian Bergier
Header / 1st Goal
89'
Event
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
85'
Event
Ivan Durdov → Kamil Zapolnik
5th Substitution
85'
Event
Milosz Matysik → Sergio Guerrero
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Morgan Faßbender → Radu Boboc
6th Substitution
Event
Andi Zeqiri → Carlos Isaac
4th Substitution
82'
Event
Fran Álvarez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
72'
Event
Krzysztof Kubica → Jesús Jiménez
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Ángel Baena → Lindon Selahi
2nd Substitution
63'
58'
Event
Andrzej Trubeha → Igor Strzalek
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Artem Putivtsev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Widzew Lodz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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