Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Wohninvest Weserstadion Sun, 15 Mar - 2:30 PM
Bundesliga
Werder Bremen SVW
0 Winner 2
FSV Mainz 05 M05
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 2:30 PM
|
Goal
Paul Nebel - 5'
Jae-sung Lee - 52'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05. The result saw FSV Mainz 05 take the points. FSV Mainz 05 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 66%–34%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FSV Mainz 05 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Maibaum
F. Maibaum
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
S. Stegemann
S. Stegemann
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
C. Günsch
C. Günsch
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
F. Bickel
F. Bickel
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.04
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Werder Bremen D. Thioune
D. Thioune
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: 75 W
Heidenheim Rank: 69 W
St. Pauli Rank: 73 L
FC Bayern München Rank: 99 L
SC Freiburg Rank: 81 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 91 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 W
RB Leipzig Rank: 85 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 76 W
FC Köln Rank: 76 L
Heidenheim Rank: 70 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 7 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Werder Bremen
42.54%
Draw
27.31%
Away FSV Mainz 05
30.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.07
79.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
75.07
79.03
League Position
15
13
Global Rank
93
63

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Werder Bremen — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Werder Bremen FSV Mainz 05

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Werder Bremen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FSV Mainz 05

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Werder Bremen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FSV Mainz 05
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.71
37.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.94
28.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Werder Bremen -0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
FSV Mainz 05 +0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Werder Bremen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FSV Mainz 05
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Werder Bremen FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Werder Bremen FSV Mainz 05
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Werder Bremen SVW Home
9 matches
FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away
Match Record
5
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
5
Goals
12
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
12
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:16:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-5-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Backhaus
Germany
30 M. Backhaus
Y. Sugawara
Substitution
Japan
3 Y. Sugawara
J. Malatini
Substitution
Argentina
22 J. Malatini
M. Friedl
Austria
32 (C) M. Friedl
O. Deman
Belgium
2 O. Deman
M. Grüll
Substitution
Austria
17 M. Grüll
J. Stage
Denmark
6 J. Stage
L. Bittencourt
Substitution
Germany
10 L. Bittencourt
C. Puertas
Spain
18 C. Puertas
R. Schmid
Austria
20 R. Schmid
K. Topp
Substitution
Germany
9 K. Topp
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
D. Kohr
Germany
31 D. Kohr
S. Posch
Austria
4 S. Posch
D. Vieira da Costa
Germany
21 D. Vieira da Costa
P. Mwene
Substitution
Austria
2 P. Mwene
J. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
7 J. Lee
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
P. Nebel
Germany
8 P. Nebel
S. Widmer
Substitution
Switzerland
30 (C) S. Widmer
S. Becker
Substitution
Suriname
23 S. Becker
P. Tietz
Substitution
Germany
20 P. Tietz

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium
Wohninvest Weserstadion
Capacity
42100
Attendance
41800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Fabian Maibaum
Sascha Stegemann
Christof Günsch
Felix Bickel

Statistics

Possession
SVW
62%
M05
38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 4
14 Shots 9
59 Dangerous attacks 38
66 Possession 34
9 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 9
0 Assists 2
27 Throwins 21
16 Goal Attempts 10
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Goal Kicks 10
23 Successful Headers 18
98 Ball Safe 74
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
6 Successful Dribbles 7
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 78

Attacking

135 Attacks 77
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

12 Key Passes 8
45 Long Passes 42
513 Successful Passes 210
85 Successful Passes Percentage 70
604 Passes 302
21 Successful Long Passes 16
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

9 Tackles 16
0 Saves 3
10 Interceptions 12

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 15
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

30
Mio Backhaus
Mio Backhaus Goalkeeper
6.28
2
Olivier Deman
Olivier Deman Defender
6.9
3
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara Defender
6.32
23
Isaac Schmidt
Isaac Schmidt
Defender69'
6.81
22
Julián Malatini
Julián Malatini Defender
6.53
33
Mick Schmetgens
Mick Schmetgens
Defender55'
7.27
32
Marco Friedl
Marco Friedl (C) Defender
6.79
6
Jens Stage
Jens Stage Midfielder
6.52
10
Leonardo Bittencourt
Leonardo Bittencourt Midfielder
6.96
24
Patrice Covic
Patrice Covic
Midfielder68'
6.64
17
Marco Grüll
Marco Grüll Midfielder
6.38
29
Salim Musah
Salim Musah
Attacker85'
6.52
18
Cameron Puertas
Cameron Puertas Midfielder
7.28
20
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid Midfielder
6.69
9
Keke Topp
Keke Topp Attacker
6.78
11
Justin Njinmah
Justin Njinmah
Attacker46'
6.73
Referee : Sascha Stegemann

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
7.5
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
7.33
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
6.57
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
7.41
2
Phillipp Mwene
Phillipp Mwene Midfielder
7.07
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig
Defender72'
6.46
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
7.66
7
Jae-sung Lee
Jae-sung Lee Midfielder
7.21
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki
Midfielder87'
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
7.97
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer (C) Midfielder
6.64
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski
Defender81'
6.58
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.23
44
Nelson Weiper
Nelson Weiper
Attacker72'
6.83
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
7.2
15
Lennard Maloney
Lennard Maloney
Midfielder87'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Lennard Maloney → Sheraldo Becker
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Sota Kawasaki → Jae-sung Lee
9th Substitution
Event
Salim Musah → Marco Grüll
8th Substitution
85'
81'
Event
Kacper Potulski → Silvan Widmer
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Nikolas Veratschnig → Phillipp Mwene
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Nelson Weiper → Phillip Tietz
6th Substitution
Event
Isaac Schmidt → Yukinari Sugawara
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Patrice Covic → Leonardo Bittencourt
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Jens Stage
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
62'
Event
Jae-sung Lee
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mick Schmetgens → Julián Malatini
2nd Substitution
55'
52'
Event
Jae-sung Lee
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Justin Njinmah → Keke Topp
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Leonardo Bittencourt
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
5'
Event
Paul Nebel
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: SV Werder Bremen 0, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Daniel Batz allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is denied. Patrice Covic from SV Werder Bremen takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Olivier Deman.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after a deflection off Lennard Maloney.
90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Romano Schmid from SV Werder Bremen took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that just missed the target. The assist came from Cameron Puertas following a corner kick.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after a deflection off Dominik Kohr.
90
Update Update
Offside call against SV Werder Bremen. Justin Njinmah has been flagged for being offside.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Sota Kawasaki replaces Lee Jae-Sung.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Lennard Maloney comes on to replace Sheraldo Becker.
86
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Salim Musah from SV Werder Bremen fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
86
Update Update
Offside call against SV Werder Bremen. Cameron Puertas has been flagged for being offside.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Kacper Potulski allowed the ball to go out of play.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Salim Musah comes on to replace Marco Grüll.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Salim Musah comes on to replace Marco Grüll.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Kacper Potulski is coming on to replace Silvan Widmer.
78
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Sheraldo Becker from 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Paul Nebel.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Nelson Weiper comes on to replace Phillip Tietz.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FSV Mainz 05: Nikolas Veratschnig comes on to replace Phillipp Mwene.
72
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from SV Werder Bremen. Jens Stage takes a shot with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Isaac Schmidt is coming on to replace Yukinari Sugawara.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Patrice Covic comes on to replace Leonardo Bittencourt.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Mick Schmetgens allowed the ball to go out.
68
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sheraldo Becker from 1. FSV Mainz 05 fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lee Jae-Sung from 1. FSV Mainz 05 fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Lee Jae-Sung from 1. FSV Mainz 05 fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Paul Nebel.
67
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Justin Njinmah from SV Werder Bremen took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Romano Schmid.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
63
Update Update
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Silvan Widmer from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Justin Njinmah from SV Werder Bremen took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Cameron Puertas.
62
Update Update
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen earned a free kick in an offensive position.
62
Update Update
Lee Jae-Sung from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
62
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Puertas from SV Werder Bremen takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully deflected away.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lee Jae-Sung of 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
61
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Olivier Deman of SV Werder Bremen attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to convert.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Olivier Deman allowed the ball to go out.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Mick Schmetgens comes on to replace Julián Malatini, who has sustained an injury.
55
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play now.
54
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Julián Malatini from SV Werder Bremen.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! SV Werder Bremen 0, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2. Lee Jae-Sung from 1. FSV Mainz 05 scores with a right-footed shot from close range.
51
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempted a shot with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area.
48
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Marco Grüll of SV Werder Bremen attempted a shot with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area.
47
Update Update
Cameron Puertas from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Paul Nebel from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
46
Update Update
Cameron Puertas from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Sheraldo Becker has been caught offside.
46
Update Update
Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Justin Njinmah comes on to replace Keke Topp.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at SV Werder Bremen 0, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SV Werder Bremen: Justin Njinmah comes on to replace Keke Topp.
42
Update Update
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen earned a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
42
Update Update
Sheraldo Becker committed a foul against a player from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
41
Update Update
Offside call against 1. FSV Mainz 05. Sheraldo Becker is caught in an offside position.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Marco Friedl allowed the ball to go out.
38
Update Update
Paul Nebel of 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
38
Update Update
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leonardo Bittencourt of SV Werder Bremen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
34
Update Update
Stefan Posch from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Keke Topp from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Marco Friedl from SV Werder Bremen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Sheraldo Becker from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
31
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Dominik Kohr allowed the ball to go out.
31
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Keke Topp of SV Werder Bremen headed the ball from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Cameron Puertas, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
31
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Keke Topp of SV Werder Bremen attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Cameron Puertas, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Phillipp Mwene allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Stefan Posch from 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
24
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Kaishu Sano from 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FSV Mainz 05 after Olivier Deman allowed the ball to go out.
22
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push. Romano Schmid from SV Werder Bremen takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Daniel Batz, the goalkeeper for 1. FSV Mainz 05, makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
22
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
22
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Danny da Costa from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Stefan Posch allowed the ball to go out.
18
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to SV Werder Bremen after Dominik Kohr allowed the ball to go out.
16
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it goes wide.
12
Update Update
Kaishu Sano from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Phillip Tietz from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Jens Stage from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Marco Grüll from SV Werder Bremen committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Stefan Posch committed a foul against a player from 1. FSV Mainz 05.
10
Update Update
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SV Werder Bremen after a play that resulted in Phillipp Mwene giving up possession.
8
Corner Corner
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen strikes the crossbar with a header from the center of the penalty area. The assist came from Cameron Puertas, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
7
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Marco Grüll from SV Werder Bremen took a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side, but it was blocked. The assist came from Keke Topp.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 takes the lead against SV Werder Bremen with a score of 1-0. Paul Nebel scores with a header from the middle of the box, sending the ball into the upper part of the net. The assist comes from Phillipp Mwene.
4
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Keke Topp from SV Werder Bremen takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Daniel Batz of 1. FSV Mainz 05 makes a great save, diving to his right. The assist came from Cameron Puertas, who delivered a precise cross.
3
Update Update
Leonardo Bittencourt from SV Werder Bremen earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
3
Update Update
Dominik Kohr from 1. FSV Mainz 05 committed a foul.
2
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Stefan Posch of 1. FSV Mainz 05 attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed high and to the right. The assist came from Silvan Widmer, who delivered a cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FSV Mainz 05 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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