Viking vs Bodø / Glimt Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
SR-Bank Arena Sat, 11 Apr - 4:00 PM
Eliteserien
Viking Viking
5 Winner 0
Bodø / Glimt BOD
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Peter Christiansen - 5'
Kristoffer Askildsen - 14'
Simen Kvia-Egeskog - 16', 74'
Zlatko Tripic - 87'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Viking and Bodø/Glimt is finished, ending in a 5-0 victory for the home side. Viking led 3-0 at half-time and added two more goals after the break to complete a comprehensive win. This outcome marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, in which Bodø/Glimt were viewed as the more likely winners with a projected success rate near 48 percent against Viking’s 29 percent. Viking, identified as the stronger team on the day, produced a result that ran counter to those forecasts despite managing only 29 percent possession to their opponents’ 71 percent. Their clinical finishing proved decisive, turning limited attacking moments into a five-goal haul. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the flow of play, allowing Viking to convert chances far more effectively than the possession statistics suggested. With no red cards shown and no major disruptive incidents, the result stood as a clear misalignment with pre-match projections. xG data was unavailable, leaving the performance to be judged on the final scoreline and the visible dominance in front of goal.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Viking showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Engan
J. Engan
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
A. Vermundsen
A. Vermundsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
E. Eskås
E. Eskås
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
I. Bashevkin
I. Bashevkin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Viking M. Jensen
M. Jensen
VS
Bodø / Glimt K. Knutsen
K. Knutsen
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.44
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vålerenga Rank: W
Molde Rank: W
HamKam Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: W
HamKam Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kristiansund Rank: W
HamKam Rank: D
Fredrikstad Rank: W
KFUM Rank: W
Bryne Rank: W
Vålerenga Rank: L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 2 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Viking
29.42%
Draw
22.93%
Away Bodø / Glimt
47.65%

Movement

Changes since opening
Viking
-66.8%
Draw
+20.1%
Bodø / Glimt
+46.7%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
45.74
42.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Viking
Bodø / Glimt
Power Score
45.74
42.88
League Position
2
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Viking — Opponent-weighted form score
Bodø / Glimt — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Viking Bodø / Glimt

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Viking

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bodø / Glimt

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Viking ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bodø / Glimt
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
60.86
14.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.08
60.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Viking +4.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Bodø / Glimt -4.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Viking
Bodø / Glimt
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Viking ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bodø / Glimt
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Viking Bodø / Glimt
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Viking Bodø / Glimt
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Viking
Bodø / Glimt
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Viking
vs
Bodø / Glimt
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Viking Bodø / Glimt
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Viking 0.28
Bodø / Glimt 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Viking Bodø / Glimt
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Viking 0.00
Bodø / Glimt 0.09
Viking
Bodø / Glimt
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Viking had peak pressure around 18'.
  • Viking started the game with stronger pressure.
Viking Pressure BOD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Viking reached the top pressure at 18' (72.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Viking Viking Home
26 matches
Bodø / Glimt BOD Away
Match Record
11
Wins
13
2
Draws
2
13
Losses
11
Goals
51
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
51
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
A. Østbø
Norway
1 A. Østbø
H. Heggheim
Norway
5 H. Heggheim
G. Stensness
Australia
6 G. Stensness
H. Falchener
Norway
25 H. Falchener
K. Haugen
Substitution
Norway
28 K. Haugen
H. Haugen
Substitution
Norway
2 H. Haugen
K. Askildsen
Substitution
Norway
7 K. Askildsen
J. Bell
New Zealand
8 J. Bell
Z. Tripić
Substitution
Norway
10 Z. Tripić
P. Christiansen
Substitution
Denmark
20 P. Christiansen
S. Kvia-Egeskog
Norway
26 S. Kvia-Egeskog
N. Haikin
Russia
12 N. Haikin
F. Bjørkan
Norway
15 F. Bjørkan
J. Maurstad Gundersen
Substitution
Norway
6 J. Maurstad Gundersen
O. Bjørtuft
Norway
4 O. Bjørtuft
F. Sjøvold
Norway
20 F. Sjøvold
P. Berg
Norway
7 P. Berg
J. Hauge
Substitution
Norway
10 J. Hauge
S. Brunstad Fet
Substitution
Norway
19 S. Brunstad Fet
H. Evjen
Substitution
Norway
26 H. Evjen
K. Høgh
Denmark
9 K. Høgh
O. Blomberg
Substitution
Norway
11 O. Blomberg

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
SR-Bank Arena
Capacity
15900
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jan Erik Engan
Aleksander Skjold Vermundsen
Espen Eskås
Isaak Bashevkin

Statistics

Possession
Viking
37%
BOD
63%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 5
53 Dangerous attacks 80
29 Possession 71
3 Corners 7
10 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 18
8 Goal Kicks 3
8 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 5
14 Dribble Attempts 22
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
4 Assists 0
1 Injuries 2
63 Ball Safe 77
10 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
58 Attacks 97
3 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

179 Successful Passes 543
60 Long Passes 51
20 Successful Long Passes 20
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
10 Key Passes 3
73 Successful Passes Percentage 86
244 Passes 630

Defensive

11 Interceptions 5
2 Saves 4
23 Tackles 11

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 14
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

1
Arild Østbø
Arild Østbø Goalkeeper
5
Henrik Heggheim
Henrik Heggheim Defender
6
Gianni Stensness
Gianni Stensness Defender
25
Henrik Falchener
Henrik Falchener Defender
28
Kristoffer Haugen
Kristoffer Haugen Defender
11
Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson
Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson
Attacker89'
2
Herman Haugen
Herman Haugen Midfielder
15
Ola Visted
Ola Visted
Midfielder63'
7
Kristoffer Askildsen
Kristoffer Askildsen Midfielder
33
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Jakob Segadal Hansen
Midfielder79'
8
Joe Bell
Joe Bell Midfielder
10
Zlatko Tripic
Zlatko Tripic Midfielder
23
Niklas Fuglestad
Niklas Fuglestad
Attacker89'
20
Peter Christiansen
Peter Christiansen Attacker
24
Vetle Auklend
Vetle Auklend
Defender89'
26
Simen Kvia-Egeskog
Simen Kvia-Egeskog Attacker
2
Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

12
Nikita Haikin
Nikita Haikin Goalkeeper
4
Odin Luras Bjortuft
Odin Luras Bjortuft Defender
6
Jostein Gundersen
Jostein Gundersen Defender
5
Haitam Aleesami
Haitam Aleesami
Defender46'
15
Fredrik Bjørkan
Fredrik Bjørkan Defender
20
Fredrik Sjøvold
Fredrik Sjøvold Defender
7
Patrick Berg
Patrick Berg Midfielder
10
Jens Petter Hauge
Jens Petter Hauge Midfielder
24
Daniel Bassi
Daniel Bassi
Attacker66'
19
Sondre Fet
Sondre Fet Midfielder
22
A. Klynge
A. Klynge
Midfielder81'
26
Håkon Evjen
Håkon Evjen Midfielder
8
Sondre Auklend
Sondre Auklend
Midfielder46'
9
Kasper Høgh
Kasper Høgh Attacker
11
Ole Didrik Blomberg
Ole Didrik Blomberg Attacker
25
Isak Dybvik Määttä
Isak Dybvik Määttä
Defender74'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Niklas Fuglestad → Zlatko Tripic
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson → Kristoffer Haugen
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Vetle Auklend → Peter Christiansen
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Zlatko Tripic
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
87'
81'
Event
A. Klynge → Sondre Fet
7th Substitution
Event
Jakob Segadal Hansen → Kristoffer Askildsen
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Simen Kvia-Egeskog
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
74'
74'
Event
4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Isak Dybvik Määttä → Ole Didrik Blomberg
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Ole Didrik Blomberg
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kristoffer Askildsen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
66'
Event
Daniel Bassi → Jens Petter Hauge
4th Substitution
Event
Ola Visted → Herman Haugen
3rd Substitution
63'
46'
Event
Haitam Aleesami → Jostein Gundersen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Sondre Auklend → Håkon Evjen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Peter Christiansen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
Simen Kvia-Egeskog
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
16'
Event
Kristoffer Askildsen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
14'
Event
Peter Christiansen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Viking exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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