Viborg FF vs AGF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Energi Viborg Arena Mon, 6 Apr - 4:00 PM
Superliga
Viborg FF Viborg FF
1 Winner 2
AGF AGF
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 3 Championship Round
Sami Jalal - 7'
Goal
|
Goal
Janni Serra - 14', 41'

CONTEXT

The match between Viborg FF and AGF has officially finished with a full-time score of 1-2. AGF secured the away victory, establishing their narrow advantage early on, with the scoreline already sitting at 1-2 by halftime. The final outcome aligned directly with the pre-match market predictions. AGF entered the fixture as the favored side with a 39.6% probability of winning, compared to a 32.6% chance for a Viborg FF home win and a 27.8% likelihood of a draw. Still, this result represented a significant deviation favoring AGF based on the underlying statistical models. Despite suffering the home defeat, Viborg FF controlled the overall flow of the game, holding the majority of the ball with 59% possession while AGF managed just 41%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning an assessment of how the final score aligned with underlying chance creation cannot be made. However, the teams' efficiency shift remained perfectly in line with expectations. The contest concluded without any major disciplinary disruptions. Neither side received a red card, ensuring that AGF's victory was earned strictly through their decisive first-half finishing rather than any numerical advantage on the pitch.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AGF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Risum
R. Risum
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. García Nilton
J. García Nilton
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. A. Sundberg
J. A. Sundberg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Redder
M. Redder
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Viborg FF Nickolai Lund
Nickolai Lund
VS
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 D
Brøndby IF Rank: 66 W
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 W
AGF Rank: 71 L
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 D
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 W
Viborg FF Rank: 63 W
Fredericia Rank: 52 D
Odense BK Rank: 58 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Viborg FF
32.6%
Draw
27.78%
Away AGF
39.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.48
70.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Viborg FF
AGF
Power Score
63.48
70.69
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
362
176

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Viborg FF — Opponent-weighted form score
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Viborg FF AGF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Viborg FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Viborg FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.92
34.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.51
24.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Viborg FF -0.96 Efficiency Index
vs
AGF +0.96 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Viborg FF
AGF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Viborg FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AGF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Viborg FF AGF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Viborg FF AGF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Viborg FF
AGF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Viborg FF
vs
AGF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Viborg FF AGF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Viborg FF 0.15
AGF 0.57
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Viborg FF AGF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Viborg FF 0.09
AGF 0.01
Viborg FF
AGF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Viborg FF Viborg FF Home
30 matches
AGF AGF Away
Match Record
9
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
9
Goals
34
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
34
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Pedersen
Denmark
1 L. Pedersen
H. Bidstrup
Substitution
Denmark
26 H. Bidstrup
L. Kirkegaard
Denmark
32 L. Kirkegaard
D. Anyembe
Kenya
24 D. Anyembe
S. Kuzmic
Slovenia
30 S. Kuzmic
T. Jørgensen
Substitution
Denmark
10 T. Jørgensen
J. Grønning
Denmark
13 J. Grønning
A. Bech
Substitution
Denmark
8 A. Bech
B. Brahimi
Substitution
France
21 B. Brahimi
D. Hanza Meha
Equatorial Guinea
19 D. Hanza Meha
S. Jalal Karchoud
Substitution
Denmark
29 S. Jalal Karchoud
J. Hansen
Denmark
1 J. Hansen
E. Kahl
Substitution
Sweden
19 E. Kahl
F. Tingager
Substitution
Denmark
5 F. Tingager
H. Dalsgaard
Denmark
3 H. Dalsgaard
G. Links
South Africa
11 G. Links
M. Knudsen
Norway
4 M. Knudsen
K. Yakob
Substitution
Iraq
17 K. Yakob
F. Beijmo
Sweden
2 F. Beijmo
K. Malt Arnstad
Norway
10 K. Malt Arnstad
J. Serra
Substitution
Germany
13 J. Serra
T. Kristensen
Substitution
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 3 · Championship Round
Stadium
Energi Viborg Arena
Capacity
9566
Attendance
8134
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rene Risum
Jonathan García Nilton
Jakob A. Sundberg
Mikkel Redder

Statistics

Possession
Viborg FF
56%
AGF
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 6
74 Dangerous attacks 23
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 1
66 Ball Safe 65
7 Goal Attempts 9
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
23 Throwins 22
14 Dribble Attempts 15
6 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Assists 1
9 Goal Kicks 8

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
133 Attacks 96
1 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 15
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
56 Long Passes 57
443 Successful Passes 287
531 Passes 383
83 Successful Passes Percentage 75
9 Key Passes 9

Defensive

45 Duels Won 58
12 Interceptions 9
20 Tackles 24
3 Saves 3

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
23 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Lund
Lucas Lund Goalkeeper
24
Daniel Anyembe
Daniel Anyembe Defender
26
Hjalte Bidstrup
Hjalte Bidstrup Defender
23
Oliver Bundgaard
Oliver Bundgaard
Defender70'
30
Srdjan Kuzmic
Srdjan Kuzmic Defender
32
Lukas Kirkegaard
Lukas Kirkegaard Defender
8
Asker Beck
Asker Beck Midfielder
4
Mees Hoedemakers
Mees Hoedemakers
Midfielder70'
10
Thomas Jørgensen
Thomas Jørgensen Midfielder
9
Tim Freriks
Tim Freriks
Attacker77'
13
Jeppe Grønning
Jeppe Grønning Midfielder
19
Dorian Hanza
Dorian Hanza Attacker
21
Bilal Brahimi
Bilal Brahimi Attacker
17
Osman Addo
Osman Addo
Attacker46'
29
Sami Jalal
Sami Jalal Attacker
5
Zan Zaletel
Zan Zaletel
Defender88'
Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesper Hansen
Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper
3
Henrik Dalsgaard
Henrik Dalsgaard Defender
5
Frederik Tingager
Frederik Tingager Defender
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen
Midfielder60'
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
40
Jonas Jensen-Abbew
Jonas Jensen-Abbew
Defender82'
2
Felix Beijmo
Felix Beijmo Midfielder
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
17
Kevin Yakob
Kevin Yakob Midfielder
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery
Attacker61'
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad Attacker
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra Attacker
2
9
Patrick Mortensen
Patrick Mortensen
Attacker60'
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
20
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Attacker89'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson → Tobias Bech
10th Substitution
Event
Zan Zaletel → Sami Jalal
9th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Jonas Jensen-Abbew → Eric Kahl
8th Substitution
Event
Tim Freriks → Thomas Jørgensen
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Mees Hoedemakers → Asker Beck
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Oliver Bundgaard → Hjalte Bidstrup
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Sami Jalal
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
61'
Event
Frederik Emmery → Kevin Yakob
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Patrick Mortensen → Janni Serra
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Sebastian Jørgensen → Frederik Tingager
2nd Substitution
Event
Thomas Jørgensen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
Event
4th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Osman Addo → Bilal Brahimi
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Janni Serra
Header / 3rd Goal
36'
Event
Kristian Arnstad
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
Event
Janni Serra
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Sami Jalal
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AGF exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Superliga View all league clusters