VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
Werder Bremen
SVW
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match has finished with Werder Bremen securing a 1-0 away victory over VfL Wolfsburg. Before kickoff, the market slightly favored the hosts, giving Wolfsburg a 39.3% chance of winning compared to Bremen's 34.7% and a 26% chance of a draw. Because the away side defied these expectations, the result represents a significant deviation in favor of Werder Bremen, proving the outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. The final scoreline tells a different story from the underlying metrics. Wolfsburg controlled the game with 57% possession to Bremen's 43%, and generated the better chances. The hosts finished with an expected goals (xG) total of 0.94 compared to Bremen's meager 0.38 xG. Consequently, the away victory was entirely inconsistent with the xG data, even though the overall efficiency shift remained in line with statistical models. While the match was scoreless at the break, the second-half dynamic was heavily influenced by a red card shown to VfL Wolfsburg. Playing with a man down created a notable red card distortion, ultimately allowing Werder Bremen to snatch the crucial winning goal and escape with all three points despite being statistically outplayed.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Werder Bremen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
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Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
Team Power Ranking
i
74.47
76.49
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
VfL Wolfsburg
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:55+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
VfL Wolfsburg
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
Werder Bremen
vs
RB Leipzig
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary