Varaždin vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec Tomorrow - 3:45 PM
1. HNL
Varaždin Varaždin
Versus
Rijeka Rijeka
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 3:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Varaždin welcome Rijeka to Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in a pivotal 1. HNL regular season encounter for the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting third in the table, the hosts aim to capitalize on their superior form score of 20.72 compared to Rijeka's 15.61, despite the visitors holding a slight 3.4-point power advantage (28.08 vs 24.67). This mid-table battle between closely ranked sides promises intensity, with Varaždin's home advantage potentially key against a Rijeka team that edges overall strength metrics. Both clubs lack recent outing details, but league positions underscore their competitiveness. Set-piece and efficiency data remain unavailable due to low-confidence proxies, shifting focus to underlying power and form dynamics. Projections highlight a tight contest, favoring Rijeka marginally at 39.7%. Expect a tactical affair where Varaždin's momentum clashes with Rijeka's structural edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Rijeka possess a 3.4-point power advantage over Varaždin with scores of 28.08 to 24.67.
  • Form: Varaždin lead in form with a 20.72 score against Rijeka's 15.61.
  • Squad: Varaždin occupy 3rd place, one spot above Rijeka in 4th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: No specific transition data provided for the matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece performance data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable for attack and defense on set pieces.
  • Market: Varaždin 35.6% (Δ+3.3%) | Draw 29.7% (Δ+0.5%) | Rijeka 34.6% (Δ-3.8%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: D
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: D
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 11 - 20
20
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Varaždin
35.64%
Draw
29.73%
Away Rijeka
34.63%

Movement

Changes since opening
Varaždin
+3.29%
Draw
+0.48%
Rijeka
-3.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.67
28.08
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Varaždin
Rijeka
Power Score
24.67
28.08
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Varaždin Rijeka

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Varaždin Varaždin Home
41 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
10
Wins
20
11
Draws
11
20
Losses
10
Goals
47
Goals Scored
71
71
Goals Conceded
47
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:05:25+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
O. Zelenika
1 O. Zelenika
F. Maglica
23 F. Maglica
R. Punčec
14 R. Punčec
N. Tepšić
16 N. Tepšić
G. Sikošek
20 G. Sikošek
D. Puclin
6 D. Puclin
M. Vuk
7 M. Vuk
I. Canjuga
28 I. Canjuga
L. Mamić
22 L. Mamić
Iuri Tavares
38 Iuri Tavares
A. Latković
10 A. Latković
M. Zlomislić
13 M. Zlomislić
M. Devetak
34 M. Devetak
A. Husic
51 A. Husic
A. Majstorović
45 A. Majstorović
N. Bodetic
91 N. Bodetic
C. Legbo Ouguehi
24 C. Legbo Ouguehi
A. Barco Del Solar
55 A. Barco Del Solar
J. Lasickas
23 J. Lasickas
A. Gojak
14 A. Gojak
M. Ndockyt
20 M. Ndockyt
D. Adu-Adjei
18 D. Adu-Adjei

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 22, 2026, 03:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Capacity
10800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Duje Strukan

Expected Lineup

Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
6.89
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
6.99
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.81
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Centre Forward
7.15
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Right Back
6.81
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Defensive Midfield
6.55
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Central Midfield
6.46
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Right Back
6.67
16
Novak Tepsic
Novak Tepsic Left Back
6.68
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek Left Back
6.84
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Central Midfield
6.65
Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6.68
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Centre Forward
6.75
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Attacking Midfield
6.56
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo Defensive Midfield
6.59
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Right Back
6.88
51
Anel Husic
Anel Husic Left Back
6.69
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt Right Wing
6.67
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Left Back
6.63
91
Noel Bodetic
Noel Bodetic Right Back
6.62
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Left Wing
6.67
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Defensive Midfield
6.48

CONCLUSION

Rijeka's power edge positions them as marginal favorites in this balanced 1. HNL fixture, but Varaždin's stronger form and home venue at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec could level the scales. With league spots tight at 3rd and 4th, both sides prioritize points in the regular season grind. Absent detailed set-piece or efficiency insights, the duel hinges on execution of core strengths—Varaždin's momentum versus Rijeka's superior rating. Projections reflect the closeness, with no outcome dominating. Anticipate a cagey battle where defensive solidity and opportunistic strikes decide the outcome.

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