Tromsø vs Kristiansund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
2 Winner 0
Kristiansund Kristiansund
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Lars Olden Larsen - 60'
Daniel Braut - 68'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Tromsø and Kristiansund is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-0 to Tromsø. The teams went into the interval level at 0-0, but the home side improved after the restart and scored twice to secure the win. Tromsø entered the fixture as strong favorites with a 73.1 percent pre-match home win probability against only 9.4 percent for an away victory. The outcome reflected a significant deviation in favor of Tromsø, who converted their status as the stronger team into a comfortable victory. They dominated possession with 62 percent of the ball while limiting Kristiansund to 38 percent, though no xG data was available to measure chance quality. The result stayed in line with the pre-match projection and followed an efficiency shift that was also in line with expectations. No red cards were shown and no major disruptive events altered the contest. Overall Tromsø delivered a result that matched their pre-game standing without requiring any late drama.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Røvig Sletner
S. Røvig Sletner
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
H. Grenå Pettersen
H. Grenå Pettersen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
K. Haglund
K. Haglund
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Kristiansund A. Robertsen Skiri
A. Robertsen Skiri
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rosenborg Rank: W
Brann Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: W
Kristiansund Rank: W
Rosenborg Rank: W
Sandefjord Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: L
Brann Rank: W
Tromsø Rank: L
Vålerenga Rank: D
Strømsgodset Rank: W
Fredrikstad Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 6 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
73.11%
Draw
17.46%
Away Kristiansund
9.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tromsø
-24.75%
Draw
+15.54%
Kristiansund
+9.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.42
16.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Kristiansund
Power Score
36.42
16.23
League Position
1
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Kristiansund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Kristiansund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kristiansund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kristiansund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.06
25.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.00
33.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø +0.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Kristiansund -0.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Kristiansund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kristiansund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Kristiansund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Kristiansund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Kristiansund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tromsø
vs
Kristiansund
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tromsø Kristiansund
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tromsø 0.18
Kristiansund 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tromsø Kristiansund
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tromsø 0.00
Kristiansund 0.02
Tromsø
Kristiansund
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Tromsø had peak pressure around 48'.
  • Tromsø started the game with stronger pressure.
Tromsø Pressure Kristiansund Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Tromsø reached the top pressure at 48' (97.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
14 matches
Kristiansund Kristiansund Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
6
Draws
6
5
Losses
3
Goals
17
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
17
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:08:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Substitution
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
I. Vådebu
Norway
30 I. Vådebu
A. Warneryd
Substitution
Sweden
29 A. Warneryd
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Substitution
Norway
11 R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
L. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
7 L. Larsen
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
A. Sæther
Norway
12 A. Sæther
H. Haugen
Norway
22 H. Haugen
D. Ulvestad
Substitution
Norway
5 D. Ulvestad
J. Júlíusson
Iceland
4 J. Júlíusson
A. Munksgaard
Denmark
13 A. Munksgaard
W. Igor
Substitution
Nigeria
20 W. Igor
S. Skundberg Skeide
Substitution
Norway
14 S. Skundberg Skeide
H. Gikling Bruseth
Norway
10 H. Gikling Bruseth
M. Isah Ubandoma
Substitution
Nigeria
7 M. Isah Ubandoma
L. Alvheim
Norway
19 L. Alvheim
S. Hestetun Kilen
Substitution
Norway
9 S. Hestetun Kilen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity
6687
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stian Røvig Sletner
Henrik Andreas Grenå Pettersen
Kim Haglund

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
60%
Kristiansund
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 5
90 Dangerous attacks 50
62 Possession 38
9 Corners 0
11 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

94 Ball Safe 81
10 Goal Attempts 6
16 Throwins 28
5 Goal Kicks 8
0 Hit Woodwork 2
4 Successful Dribbles 3
16 Dribble Attempts 14
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

122 Attacks 94
0 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
533 Successful Passes 309
608 Passes 384
14 Key Passes 6
39 Successful Long Passes 20
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
60 Long Passes 61

Defensive

16 Tackles 17
2 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 3
13 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Stian Røvig Sletner

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
37
Sander Innvær
Sander Innvær
Midfielder80'
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
29
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd Defender
3
Mathias Tønnessen
Mathias Tønnessen
Defender90+4'
30
Isak Vådebu
Isak Vådebu Defender
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen Midfielder
92
Johan Solstad-Nøis
Johan Solstad-Nøis
Midfielder90+4'
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen Attacker
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Midfielder80'
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker61'
Referee : Stian Røvig Sletner

Starting XI ▼

12
A. Sæther
A. Sæther Goalkeeper
4
J. Júlíusson
J. Júlíusson Defender
5
D. Ulvestad
D. Ulvestad Defender
15
Nikolai Skuseth
Nikolai Skuseth
Defender89'
13
Alexander Munksgaard
Alexander Munksgaard Defender
22
H. Haugen
H. Haugen Defender
10
Heine Gikling Bruseth
Heine Gikling Bruseth Midfielder
14
Syver Skeide
Syver Skeide Midfielder
23
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
Midfielder67'
20
W. Igor
W. Igor Midfielder
77
H. Magnússon
H. Magnússon
Midfielder89'
7
M. Ubandoma
M. Ubandoma Attacker
18
Promise Ikojo Meliga
Promise Ikojo Meliga
Attacker77'
9
S. Kilen
S. Kilen Attacker
27
A. Rønning
A. Rønning
Attacker67'
19
L. Alvheim
L. Alvheim Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Johan Solstad-Nøis → Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Mathias Tønnessen → Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd
10th Substitution
90+4'
89'
Event
Nikolai Skuseth → D. Ulvestad
8th Substitution
89'
Event
H. Magnússon → W. Igor
7th Substitution
Event
Sander Innvær → Leo Cornic
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Troy Engseth Nyhammer → Lars Olden Larsen
6th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Promise Ikojo Meliga → M. Ubandoma
4th Substitution
Event
Daniel Braut
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
67'
Event
A. Rønning → S. Kilen
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Tobias Hammer Svendsen → Syver Skeide
3rd Substitution
Event
Daniel Braut → Heine Åsen Larsen
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Lars Olden Larsen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
60'
59'
Event
L. Alvheim
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
H. Haugen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Tromsø exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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