Trabzonspor vs İstanbul Başakşehir Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Medical Park Stadyumu Sun, 19 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Trabzonspor TRA
1 – 1
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Felipe Augusto - 73'
Goal
|
Goal
Davie Selke - 90+3'

CONTEXT

In a balanced Süper Lig encounter at Papara Park, Trabzonspor and İstanbul Başakşehir settled for a 1-1 draw, extending both teams' unbeaten streaks. The first half ended goalless, with Trabzonspor enjoying 53% possession but struggling to convert chances against a resilient Başakşehir defense. The second half exploded into life as both sides scored once, showcasing attacking intent without overcommitting defensively. As the pre-designated stronger side, Trabzonspor dominated territory yet couldn't secure victory, highlighting Başakşehir's counterattacking threat. No red cards marred the proceedings, allowing continuous flow and tactical duels. The result underscores the league's competitiveness, where home advantage proved insufficient against disciplined opposition. Possession edges translated to few clear opportunities, epitomizing a cagey affair resolved by fine margins.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate structural deviation of 7.7% toward Trabzonspor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match projections for both squads.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable, preventing performance benchmarking.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured undistorted tactical progression.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Akarsu
A. Akarsu
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
A. Akarsu
A. Akarsu
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
A. Akarsu
A. Akarsu
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
B. Demirkıran
B. Demirkıran
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.33
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Trabzonspor F. Tekke
F. Tekke
VS
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
2.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alanyaspor Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: W
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Rizespor Rank: W
Kayserispor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Kocaelispor Rank: D
Antalyaspor Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
Göztepe Rank: W
Konyaspor Rank: W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 10 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Trabzonspor
4.09%
Draw
92.29%
Away İstanbul Başakşehir
3.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.06
29.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Trabzonspor
İstanbul Başakşehir
Power Score
38.06
29.96
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Trabzonspor — Opponent-weighted form score
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Trabzonspor İstanbul Başakşehir

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Trabzonspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Trabzonspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.09
40.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.53
25.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Trabzonspor -1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir +1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Trabzonspor
İstanbul Başakşehir
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Trabzonspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Trabzonspor İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Trabzonspor İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Trabzonspor
İstanbul Başakşehir
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Trabzonspor
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Trabzonspor İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Trabzonspor 0.24
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Trabzonspor İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Trabzonspor 0.02
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.02
Trabzonspor
İstanbul Başakşehir
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TRA had peak pressure around 75'.
  • IBA started the game with stronger pressure.
TRA Pressure IBA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TRA reached the top pressure at 75' (91.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Trabzonspor TRA Home
35 matches
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Away
Match Record
15
Wins
10
10
Draws
10
10
Losses
15
Goals
53
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
53
+12
Goal Difference
-12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:05:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Onana
Cameroon
24 A. Onana
W. Cardoso Pina
Portugal
20 W. Cardoso Pina
C. Nwaiwu
Nigeria
27 C. Nwaiwu
S. Savić
Montenegro
15 S. Savić
M. Eskihellaç
Turkey
19 M. Eskihellaç
C. Inao Oulaï
Substitution
42 C. Inao Oulaï
O. Tufan
Turkey
11 O. Tufan
O. Zubkov
Substitution
Ukraine
22 O. Zubkov
F. da Silva
Brazil
99 F. da Silva
A. Nwakaeme
Substitution
Nigeria
9 A. Nwakaeme
E. Onuachu
Nigeria
30 E. Onuachu
M. Şengezer
Turkey
16 M. Şengezer
K. Karataş
Turkey
88 K. Karataş
J. Opoku
Ghana
3 J. Opoku
L. Duarte da Silva
Brazil
5 L. Duarte da Silva
O. Bulut
Germany
6 O. Bulut
U. Güneş
Substitution
Turkey
20 U. Güneş
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
I. Brnić
Substitution
Croatia
77 I. Brnić
E. Shomurodov
Substitution
Uzbekistan
14 E. Shomurodov
Y. Sari
Substitution
Turkey
7 Y. Sari
B. Yıldırım
Substitution
Turkey
91 B. Yıldırım

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Medical Park Stadyumu
Capacity
40782
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alper Akarsu
Alper Akarsu
Alper Akarsu
Burak Demirkıran

Statistics

Possession
TRA
51%
IBA
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
11 Shots 17
46 Dangerous attacks 41
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 8
13 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Throwins 12
15 Successful Headers 15
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
13 Goal Kicks 8
5 Successful Dribbles 5
15 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Goal Attempts 14
83 Ball Safe 80
3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

75 Attacks 105

Possession

352 Successful Passes 292
83 Successful Passes Percentage 81
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
60 Long Passes 69
424 Passes 360
26 Successful Long Passes 39
9 Key Passes 11

Defensive

11 Interceptions 7
14 Tackles 21
49 Duels Won 47
1 Saves 1

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 24
6 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

10 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Alper Akarsu

Starting XI ▼

24
André Onana
André Onana Goalkeeper
6.98
15
Stefan Savic
Stefan Savic Defender
6.9
19
Mustafa Eskihellaç
Mustafa Eskihellaç Defender
6.97
20
Wagner Pina
Wagner Pina Defender
6.87
27
Chibuike Nwaiwu
Chibuike Nwaiwu Defender
7.4
9
Anthony Nwakaeme
Anthony Nwakaeme Midfielder
6.68
14
Mathias Løvik
Mathias Løvik
Defender69'
6.62
11
Ozan Tufan
Ozan Tufan Midfielder
6.97
22
Oleksandr Zubkov
Oleksandr Zubkov Midfielder
7.28
5
Okay Yokuşlu
Okay Yokuşlu
Midfielder82'
6.61
42
Christ Inao Oulaï
Christ Inao Oulaï Midfielder
7.26
8
Benjamin Bouchouari
Benjamin Bouchouari
Midfielder89'
6.44
99
Felipe Augusto
Felipe Augusto Midfielder
6.94
30
Paul Onuachu
Paul Onuachu Attacker
7.32
Referee : Alper Akarsu

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
7.05
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
6.83
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Defender
7
6
Onur Bulut
Onur Bulut Defender
6.61
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Defender
6.55
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Midfielder
7.19
11
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Midfielder81'
7.01
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
6.84
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
7.2
10
Nuno Da Costa
Nuno Da Costa
Attacker75'
6.79
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Midfielder
6.73
4
Onur Ergün
Onur Ergün
Midfielder75'
6.62
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic Midfielder
6.81
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit
Midfielder67'
7.06
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım Attacker
6.85
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke
Attacker75'
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Davie Selke
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Benjamin Bouchouari → Christ Inao Oulaï
8th Substitution
89'
87'
Event
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Okay Yokuşlu → Oleksandr Zubkov
7th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Abbosbek Fayzullaev → Yusuf Sarı
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Nuno Da Costa → Eldor Shomurodov
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Onur Ergün → Umut Güneş
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Davie Selke → Bertuğ Yıldırım
5th Substitution
Event
Felipe Augusto
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
73'
Event
Mathias Løvik → Anthony Nwakaeme
2nd Substitution
69'
67'
Event
Amine Harit → Ivan Brnic
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Jerome Opoku
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Trabzonspor's draw against İstanbul Başakşehir leaves them reflecting on squandered dominance, as 53% possession yielded only parity in a match defined by second-half parity. Başakşehir's grit neutralized home pressure, securing a valuable point on the road. Without disruptions like dismissals, the game highlighted fine defensive organization over flashy play. This stalemate reinforces Trabzonspor's need for clinical finishing, while Başakşehir builds momentum through resilience. In the broader Süper Lig context, such results tighten the standings, promising intensified battles ahead.

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