Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sat, 25 Apr - 7:05 PM
Ligue 1
Toulouse TOU
Versus
Monaco ASM
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 7:05 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Toulouse host Monaco at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1's 2025/2026 regular season, with the hosts in 11th place facing 7th-placed visitors. Monaco's power score of 39.1 dwarfs Toulouse's 18.4, granting a substantial 20.7-point advantage and marking them as the stronger team overall. Form scores echo this disparity, Monaco at 40.78 versus Toulouse's 10.39, highlighting recent visitor momentum. Projections reflect Monaco's edge at 45.2%, ahead of Toulouse's 28.1% and a 26.7% draw chance, all with neutral deltas. Set piece data carries low confidence via proxies, lacking xG detail for attack or defense. Toulouse lean on home support to counter Monaco's structural superiority in this mid-table clash.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Monaco hold a 20.7-point power advantage over Toulouse as the stronger team.
  • Form: Monaco's form score of 40.78 far exceeds Toulouse's 10.39.
  • Squad: Monaco sit 7th in Ligue 1, four places above 11th-placed Toulouse.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data uses low-confidence proxies with no xG available for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG metrics unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Toulouse 28% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 26.2% (Δ-0.5%) | Monaco 45.9% (Δ+0.6%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: L
LOSC Lille Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
Lorient Rank: W
Metz Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Auxerre Rank: D
Paris Rank: L
Olympique Marseille Rank: W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: W
Brest Rank: W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 11 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
27.95%
Draw
26.18%
Away Monaco
45.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Toulouse
-0.13%
Draw
-0.51%
Monaco
+0.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.4
39.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Monaco
Power Score
18.4
39.1
League Position
11
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Monaco

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
32 matches
Monaco ASM Away
Match Record
6
Wins
15
11
Draws
11
15
Losses
6
Goals
33
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
33
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T01:10:26+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 07:05 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity
33150
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

16
Christian Kjetil Haug
Christian Kjetil Haug Goalkeeper
30
Alejandro Domínguez Romero
Alejandro Domínguez Romero Goalkeeper
1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Defender
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Defender
12
Warren Håkon Christofer Kamanzi
Warren Håkon Christofer Kamanzi Defender
22
Rafik Messali
Rafik Messali Defender
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Defender
35
Seny Koumbassa
Seny Koumbassa Defender
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
23
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Midfielder
17
Abu Francis
Abu Francis Midfielder
77
Mario Sauer
Mario Sauer Midfielder
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Midfielder
45
Alexis Vossah
Alexis Vossah Midfielder
9
Frank Magri
Frank Magri Attacker
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Attacker
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe Attacker
20
Emersonn Correia da Silva
Emersonn Correia da Silva Attacker
11
Santiago Hidalgo Massa
Santiago Hidalgo Massa Attacker
7
Julián Vignolo
Julián Vignolo Attacker
21
Enzo Faty
Enzo Faty Attacker

Squad ▼

1
Lukáš Hradecký
Lukáš Hradecký Goalkeeper
16
Philipp Köhn
Philipp Köhn Goalkeeper
50
Yann Lienard
Yann Lienard Goalkeeper
40
Jules Stawiecki
Jules Stawiecki Goalkeeper
3
Eric Dier
Eric Dier Defender
25
Wout Faes
Wout Faes Defender
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
12
Caio Henrique Oliveira Silva
Caio Henrique Oliveira Silva Defender
4
Jordan Teze
Jordan Teze Defender
22
Mohamed Salisu Abdul Karim
Mohamed Salisu Abdul Karim Defender
2
Vanderson de Oliveira Campos
Vanderson de Oliveira Campos Defender
20
Kassoum Ouattara
Kassoum Ouattara Defender
13
Christian Mawissa Elebi
Christian Mawissa Elebi Defender
8
Paul Pogba
Paul Pogba Midfielder
10
Aleksandr Golovin
Aleksandr Golovin Midfielder
6
Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado
Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado Midfielder
27
Krepin Diatta
Krepin Diatta Midfielder
17
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo Midfielder
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
28
Mamadou Coulibaly
Mamadou Coulibaly Midfielder
23
Aladji Bamba
Aladji Bamba Midfielder
18
Takumi Minamino
Takumi Minamino Attacker
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
31
Anssumane Fati
Anssumane Fati Attacker
14
Mika Bieveth
Mika Bieveth Attacker
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche Attacker
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Attacker
29
Paris Josua Brunner
Paris Josua Brunner Attacker

CONCLUSION

Monaco enter as favorites with a clear 20.7-point power edge, superior form at 40.78, and better league position in 7th. Toulouse, 11th at home, face an uphill battle despite venue support. Projections tilt to Monaco at 45.2%, with limited set piece insights leaving open play as key. The visitors' structural dominance suggests control, likely securing an away win to bolster top-half aspirations while Toulouse seek mid-table stability.

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