Sturm Graz vs Rheindorf Altach Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena
Sun, 8 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Sturm Graz
STU
2
0
0
Rheindorf Altach
ALT
Full Time
Sun, 8 Mar
4:00 PM
Jacob Peter Hödl - 58'
Belmin Beganovic - 84'
|
|
Benedikt Zech 77'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 21
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Sturm Graz 2–0 Rheindorf Altach. The result saw Sturm Graz take the points. Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Ebner
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Obritzberger
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
D. Divkovic
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
M. Höfler
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
20.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
3.17
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
F. Ingolitsch
VS
O. Zaric
1.53
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolfsberger AC
Rank:
D
Blau-Weiß Linz
Rank:
W
WSG Tirol
Rank:
L
Ried
Rank:
W
Austria Wien
Rank:
L
Grazer AK
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid
Rank:
D
Austria Wien
Rank:
W
Hartberg
Rank:
D
Blau-Weiß Linz
Rank:
W
Ried
Rank:
L
WSG Tirol
Rank:
W
27
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 10 - 6
6
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Sturm Graz
39.99%
Draw
29.99%
Rheindorf Altach
30.02%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.58
43.94
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sturm Graz
Rheindorf Altach
Power Score
57.58
43.94
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Sturm Graz
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Rheindorf Altach
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Sturm Graz Rheindorf Altach
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Sturm Graz
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Rheindorf Altach
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Sturm Graz
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Rheindorf Altach
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.88
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Sturm Graz
+0.87
Efficiency Index
vs
Rheindorf Altach
-0.87
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Rheindorf Altach
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Sturm Graz
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Rheindorf Altach
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Sturm Graz
Rheindorf Altach
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Sturm Graz
Rheindorf Altach
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sturm Graz
Rheindorf Altach
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Sturm Graz
STU
Home
11
matches
Rheindorf Altach
ALT
Away
Match Record
8
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
8
Goals
22
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
22
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:12:47+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stefan Ebner
Michael Obritzberger
Davor Divkovic
Martin Höfler
Statistics
Possession
STU
49%
ALT
51%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
2
Big Chances Created
2
4
Shots
4
47
Dangerous attacks
38
48
Possession
52
6
Corners
3
13
Free kicks
12
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
11
Successful Dribbles
9
25
Throwins
26
8
Goal Kicks
8
23
Dribble Attempts
20
48
Successful Dribbles Percentage
45
0
Injuries
1
45
Ball Safe
54
5
Goal Attempts
5
5
Substitutions
6
2
Assists
0
Attacking
2
Big Chances Missed
2
109
Attacks
103
Possession
25
Successful Long Passes Percentage
37
307
Passes
338
51
Long Passes
68
66
Successful Passes Percentage
64
203
Successful Passes
218
13
Successful Long Passes
25
11
Key Passes
6
Defensive
13
Interceptions
11
20
Tackles
19
3
Saves
1
Build-up
4
Accurate Crosses
4
14
Total Crosses
10
Discipline
12
Fouls
13
1
Offsides
1
Events
2ND-HALF
90+1'
Rassa Rahmani → Sandro Ingolitsch
10th Substitution
90+1'
Alexander Gorgon → Mohamed Ouédraogo
9th Substitution
Niklas Geyrhofer → Paul Koller
8th Substitution
87'
Gizo Mamageishvili
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
86'
4th Yellowcard
86'
Belmin Beganovic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
84'
79'
Lukas Gugganig → Patrick Greil
7th Substitution
Gizo Mamageishvili → Otar Kiteishvili
6th Substitution
78'
Maurice Malone → Filip Rózga
5th Substitution
78'
77'
Benedikt Zech
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Belmin Beganovic → Seedy Jatta
3rd Substitution
72'
Emir Karic → Jusuf Gazibegovic
4th Substitution
72'
69'
Erkin Yalcin → Yann Massombo
2nd Substitution
69'
Srdjan Hrstic → Ousmane Diawara
1st Substitution
Jacob Peter Hödl
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
58'
Var
52'
1ST-HALF
29'
Filip Milojevic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
2'
Benedikt Zech
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Sturm Graz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.