Stoke City vs Millwall Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Bet365 Stadium Today - 6:45 PM
Championship
Stoke City STK
Versus
Millwall MLW
KICKOFF : Today - 6:45 PM
Round 44 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Stoke City host Millwall in Championship (Regular Season) at Bet365 Stadium. Domestically, Stoke City sit 17th in the table while Millwall are 3th. Power ranking favours Millwall by 12.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Millwall possesses a 12.9-point power advantage over Stoke City.
  • Form: Millwall's form score stands at 22.39, surpassing Stoke City's 9.06.
  • Squad: Millwall ranks 3rd in the league while Stoke City occupies 17th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: No specific transition data provided for the matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats rely on low-confidence proxies with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Stoke City 25.2% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 26.1% (Δ-0.2%) | Millwall 48.7% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
VS
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wrexham Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: L
Watford Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Queens Park Rangers Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Stoke City
25.24%
Draw
26.1%
Away Millwall
48.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
Stoke City
+0.13%
Draw
-0.22%
Millwall
+0.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.8
29.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Stoke City
Millwall
Power Score
16.8
29.68
League Position
17
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Stoke City Millwall

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Stoke City STK Home
18 matches
Millwall MLW Away
Match Record
5
Wins
8
5
Draws
5
8
Losses
5
Goals
11
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
11
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:04:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Bazunu
Republic of Ireland
31 G. Bazunu
S. Thomas
Wales
7 S. Thomas
A. Phillips
England
26 A. Phillips
A. Cresswell
England
3 A. Cresswell
E. Bocat
France
17 E. Bocat
L. Baker
England
8 L. Baker
T. Seko
Japan
12 T. Seko
J. Rak-Sakyi
England
21 J. Rak-Sakyi
M. Manhoef
Netherlands
42 M. Manhoef
L. Cisse
France
29 L. Cisse
S. Gallagher
England
20 S. Gallagher
A. Patterson
England
13 A. Patterson
Z. Norton Sturge
England
3 Z. Norton Sturge
J. Cooper
England
5 J. Cooper
C. Taylor
England
6 C. Taylor
T. Crama
France
4 T. Crama
C. De Norre
Belgium
24 C. De Norre
D. Mazou-Sacko
France
49 D. Mazou-Sacko
T. Ballo
Austria
7 T. Ballo
C. Neghli
Algeria
10 C. Neghli
F. Azeez
England
11 F. Azeez
M. Ivanović
Serbia
9 M. Ivanović

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 44 · Regular Season
Stadium
Bet365 Stadium
Capacity
30089
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Hristo Karaivanov
Joshua Smith
Edward Duckworth
C. Gough

Lineup

Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

31
Gavin Bazunu
Gavin Bazunu Goalkeeper
6.58
3
Aaron Cresswell
Aaron Cresswell Defender
6.89
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Defender
6.98
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Defender
6.67
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Defender
6.82
8
Lewis Baker
Lewis Baker Midfielder
6.93
12
Tatsuki Seko
Tatsuki Seko Midfielder
6.68
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Midfielder
6.77
29
Lamine Cissé
Lamine Cissé Midfielder
6.79
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Midfielder
6.75
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher Attacker
6.8
Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.7
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Defender
6.64
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
7.09
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Defender
7.04
6
Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor Defender
7.23
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Midfielder
6.64
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Midfielder
6.81
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
7.26
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Midfielder
6.84
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko Midfielder
6.71
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović Attacker
6.81

CONCLUSION

Millwall's superior power, form, and league position position them strongly against Stoke City. The 12.9-point edge and 22.39 form score suggest control, especially away from home. Stoke's home venue offers faint hope, but 17th place and weaker metrics hinder upset chances. Absent detailed set piece and efficiency data keeps focus on fundamentals. Expect Millwall to dictate terms in this Championship bout, leveraging overall strength for a likely victory.

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