Standard Liège vs Westerlo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Maurice Dufrasne Sat, 11 Apr - 4:15 PM
Pro League
Standard Liège STL
1 Winner 2
Westerlo KVC
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:15 PM
Round 2 Conference League Play-off Group
Timothé Nkada - 76'
Goal
|
Goal
Nacho Ferri - 10'
Dylan Ourega - 85'
Josué Homawoo 65' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Standard Liège and Westerlo is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-2 to the visitors. Westerlo secured the victory despite Standard Liège being listed as the stronger team beforehand. The result reflected only a minimal deviation from pre-match expectations, with Westerlo the side that exceeded projections. Possession was shared fairly evenly at 47 percent for the home side and 53 percent for Westerlo. No expected goals data was recorded. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection. A red card to Standard Liège created a clear distortion in the second half, altering the balance of the contest and contributing directly to the away team's success. Westerlo capitalised on the numerical advantage to claim a result that ultimately rewarded their efficiency across the full match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Westerlo showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. De Cremer
W. De Cremer
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.34
G. Seeldraeyers
G. Seeldraeyers
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.34
A. Letellier
A. Letellier
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.34
W. Cochet
W. Cochet
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.68
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.34
Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
VS
Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: D
Antwerp Rank: D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
La Louvière Rank: D
Genk Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Standard Liège Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 11 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Standard Liège
0.19%
Draw
4.2%
Away Westerlo
95.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Standard Liège
0%
Draw
-0.89%
Westerlo
+0.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.89
26.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Standard Liège
Westerlo
Power Score
26.89
26.26
League Position
8
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Standard Liège Westerlo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.15
36.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.89
19.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Standard Liège -1.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Westerlo +1.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
Westerlo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Standard Liège Westerlo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Standard Liège Westerlo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
Westerlo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Standard Liège
vs
Westerlo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Standard Liège Westerlo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Standard Liège 0.18
Westerlo 0.58
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Standard Liège Westerlo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Standard Liège 0.06
Westerlo 0.03
Standard Liège
Westerlo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KVC had peak pressure around 93'.
  • KVC started the game with stronger pressure.
STL Pressure KVC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KVC reached the top pressure at 93' (63.59).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 34 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Standard Liège STL Home
34 matches
Westerlo KVC Away
Match Record
14
Wins
9
11
Draws
11
9
Losses
14
Goals
47
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
47
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0.60
xG
2.21
2.21
xGA
0.60

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Pirard
Belgium
21 L. Pirard
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
D. Bates
Scotland
4 D. Bates
J. Homawoo
Togo
24 J. Homawoo
H. Lawrence
Substitution
England
18 H. Lawrence
C. Nielsen
Denmark
94 C. Nielsen
M. Ilaimaharitra
Substitution
Madagascar
23 M. Ilaimaharitra
G. Mortensen
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
A. Adnane
Belgium
11 A. Adnane
D. Eckert Ayensa
Germany
10 D. Eckert Ayensa
R. Said Ahamada
Substitution
Comoros
17 R. Said Ahamada
A. Jungdal
Denmark
99 A. Jungdal
A. Lapage
Substitution
Belgium
4 A. Lapage
R. Neustädter
Russia
33 R. Neustädter
E. Bayram
Turkey
40 E. Bayram
B. Reynolds
United States
22 B. Reynolds
A. Piedfort
Belgium
46 A. Piedfort
D. Haspolat
Netherlands
34 D. Haspolat
J. Alcócer
Substitution
Costa Rica
77 J. Alcócer
I. Sakamoto
Substitution
Japan
13 I. Sakamoto
S. Saito
Substitution
38 S. Saito
I. Ferri Julià
Substitution
Spain
90 I. Ferri Julià

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Capacity
27670
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wesli De Cremer
Gianni Seeldraeyers
Anthony Letellier
Wouter Cochet

Statistics

Possession
STL
48%
KVC
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
1 Shots 6
40 Dangerous attacks 31
47 Possession 53
1 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

27 Throwins 22
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
5 Successful Dribbles 3
13 Goal Kicks 5
11 Dribble Attempts 9
3 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0
90 Ball Safe 87
6 Goal Attempts 15

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 2
99 Attacks 91

Possession

66 Long Passes 59
29 Successful Long Passes 21
274 Successful Passes 330
74 Successful Passes Percentage 79
369 Passes 420
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
5 Key Passes 9

Defensive

16 Tackles 14
12 Interceptions 12
8 Saves 3

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 15
1 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Wesli De Cremer

Starting XI ▼

21
Lucas Pirard
Lucas Pirard Goalkeeper
4
David Bates
David Bates Defender
24
Josué Homawoo
Josué Homawoo Defender
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Midfielder
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Midfielder
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada
Attacker71'
23
Marco Ilaimaharitra
Marco Ilaimaharitra Midfielder
27
Mohammed El Hankouri
Mohammed El Hankouri
Attacker86'
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen Midfielder
10
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Dennis Eckert Ayensa Attacker
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid Attacker
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd Attacker
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene
Attacker71'
Referee : Wesli De Cremer

Starting XI ▼

99
Andreas Jungdal
Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper
4
Amando Lapage
Amando Lapage Defender
28
Dylan Ourega
Dylan Ourega
Defender46'
22
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds Defender
33
Roman Neustädter
Roman Neustädter Defender
40
Emin Bayram
Emin Bayram Defender
13
Isa Sakamoto
Isa Sakamoto Midfielder
10
Afonso Patrão
Afonso Patrão
Attacker84'
34
Doğucan Haspolat
Doğucan Haspolat Midfielder
38
Shunsuke Saito
Shunsuke Saito Midfielder
39
Thomas Van den Keybus
Thomas Van den Keybus
Midfielder73'
46
Arthur Piedfort
Arthur Piedfort Midfielder
77
Josimar Alcócer
Josimar Alcócer Midfielder
11
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Attacker84'
90
Nacho Ferri
Nacho Ferri Attacker
29
Fernand Goure
Fernand Goure
Attacker90+1'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
6th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+3'
Event
Fernand Goure
5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Fernand Goure → Nacho Ferri
8th Substitution
Event
Bernard Nguene
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Mohammed El Hankouri → Marco Ilaimaharitra
7th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Dylan Ourega
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
Event
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni → Josimar Alcócer
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Afonso Patrão → Isa Sakamoto
6th Substitution
Event
Adnane Abid
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
Event
Timothé Nkada
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
73'
Event
Thomas Van den Keybus → Shunsuke Saito
4th Substitution
Event
Bernard Nguene → Rafiki Saïd
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Timothé Nkada → Henry Lawrence
3rd Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Var
Event
Josué Homawoo
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
65'
Event
Josué Homawoo
Card adjusted
65'
Event
Henry Lawrence
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
57'
46'
Event
Dylan Ourega → Amando Lapage
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Amando Lapage
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
Event
Nacho Ferri
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Westerlo exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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