St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAU
1 Winner 2
SC Freiburg SCF
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:30 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Danel Sinani - 24'
Goal
|
Goal
Igor Matanovic - 65', 78'

CONTEXT

The match between St. Pauli and SC Freiburg has finished, with SC Freiburg securing a 2-0 away victory at full-time. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of SC Freiburg. Heading into the fixture, the markets slightly favored the home side, giving St. Pauli a 36% chance of winning compared to Freiburg's 33.3% probability and a 30.7% likelihood of a draw. Because the visitors overcame the market's slight home bias, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. On the pitch, the underlying metrics fully justified the visitors' success. SC Freiburg narrowly edged the possession battle, controlling 51% of the ball to St. Pauli's 49%. The offensive production also leaned toward the away side, who generated

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SC Freiburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
0.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 D
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
36%
Draw
30.67%
Away SC Freiburg
33.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.83
81.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
Power Score
72.83
81.07
League Position
16
8
Global Rank
148
57

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli SC Freiburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SC Freiburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SC Freiburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.80
32.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.45
29.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Pauli -0.25 Efficiency Index
vs
SC Freiburg +0.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Pauli
vs
SC Freiburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Pauli SC Freiburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Pauli SC Freiburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Pauli PAU Home
5 matches
SC Freiburg SCF Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
9
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
E. Smith
Sweden
8 E. Smith
T. Ando
Substitution
Japan
15 T. Ando
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
M. Rasmussen
Substitution
Norway
20 M. Rasmussen
J. Irvine
Australia
7 (C) J. Irvine
L. Ritzka
Substitution
Germany
21 L. Ritzka
J. Fujita
Japan
16 J. Fujita
M. Pereira Lage
Substitution
Portugal
28 M. Pereira Lage
D. Sinani
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
N. Atubolu
Germany
1 N. Atubolu
J. Makengo
France
33 J. Makengo
B. Ogbus
Substitution
Switzerland
43 B. Ogbus
M. Ginter
Germany
28 M. Ginter
P. Treu
Germany
29 P. Treu
J. Manzambi
Substitution
Switzerland
44 J. Manzambi
M. Eggestein
Germany
8 M. Eggestein
V. Grifo
Substitution
Italy
32 (C) V. Grifo
Y. Suzuki
Japan
14 Y. Suzuki
J. Beste
Substitution
Germany
19 J. Beste
I. Matanovic
Substitution
Croatia
31 I. Matanovic

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity
29546
Attendance
29546
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Florian Badstübner
Philipp Hüwe
Lukas Benen
Markus Schüller

Statistics

Possession
PAU
48%
SCF
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 6
52 Dangerous attacks 31
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 2
6 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
16 Throwins 16
9 Goal Kicks 12
3 Successful Dribbles 5
9 Dribble Attempts 10
16 Successful Headers 14
1 Assists 0
9 Goal Attempts 13
72 Ball Safe 100
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

109 Attacks 76
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

346 Successful Passes 382
434 Passes 452
80 Successful Passes Percentage 85
18 Successful Long Passes 30
50 Long Passes 52
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
9 Key Passes 10

Defensive

6 Interceptions 8
4 Saves 4
15 Tackles 12

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 6
17 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

5 Offsides 3
9 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Florian Badstübner

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.4
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
7.08
8
Eric Smith
Eric Smith Defender
6.92
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.8
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars
Attacker89'
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine (C) Midfielder
6.94
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
6.36
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
6.6
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe
Midfielder84'
6.55
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Midfielder
6.67
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie
Defender68'
6.66
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Attacker
7.45
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Attacker
6.93
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
Mathias Pereira Lage Attacker
6.57
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji
Attacker84'
6.5
Referee : Florian Badstübner

Starting XI ▼

1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
7.35
28
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter Defender
6.76
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu Defender
6.41
33
Jordy Makengo
Jordy Makengo Defender
6.55
43
Bruno Ogbus
Bruno Ogbus Defender
6.42
3
Philipp Lienhart
Philipp Lienhart
Defender46'
7.11
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein Midfielder
6.5
14
Yuito Suzuki
Yuito Suzuki Midfielder
6.72
19
Niklas Beste
Niklas Beste Midfielder
6.63
22
Cyriaque Irié
Cyriaque Irié
Attacker46'
7.21
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo (C) Midfielder
6.83
7
Derry Scherhant
Derry Scherhant
Attacker68'
6.49
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Midfielder
6.82
6
Patrick Osterhage
Patrick Osterhage
Midfielder89'
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic Attacker
2
8.9
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler
Attacker86'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Yuito Suzuki
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Martijn Kaars → T. Ando
8th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Patrick Osterhage → Johan Manzambi
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Lucas Höler → Igor Matanovic
7th Substitution
Event
Connor Metcalfe → Mathias Rasmussen
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Andréas Hountondji → Mathias Pereira Lage
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Alexander Blessin
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
78'
Event
Igor Matanovic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Cyriaque Irié
Goal disallowed
Event
Louis Oppie → Lars Ritzka
3rd Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Derry Scherhant → Vincenzo Grifo
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Igor Matanovic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Cyriaque Irié → Niklas Beste
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Philipp Lienhart → Bruno Ogbus
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Danel Sinani
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
24'
Event
T. Ando
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Cyriaque Irié from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Offside call against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Hauke Wahl has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
Offside call against SC Freiburg. Derry Scherhant has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with FC St. Pauli Hamburg losing to SC Freiburg, final score 1-2.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: FC St. Pauli Hamburg 1, SC Freiburg 2.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Danel Sinani of FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Noah Atubolu of SC Freiburg makes a save, diving to his left. The assist came from Hauke Wahl, who delivered a header.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yuito Suzuki of SC Freiburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Louis Oppie from FC St. Pauli Hamburg has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
Yuito Suzuki from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Cyriaque Irié from SC Freiburg commits a handball.
90
Update Update
Jackson Irvine from FC St. Pauli Hamburg earned a free kick in an offensive position.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Patrick Osterhage comes on to replace Johan Manzambi.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Martijn Kaars comes on to replace Tomoya Ando.
88
Update Update
Offside call against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Louis Oppie has been caught in an offside position.
87
Update Update
Johan Manzambi - SC Freiburg.
87
Update Update
Eric Smith from FC St. Pauli Hamburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Andréas Hountondji comes on to replace Mathias Pereira Lage.
87
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but it narrowly went wide to the left.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Connor Metcalfe comes on to replace Mathias Rasmussen.
84
Update Update
Louis Oppie from FC St. Pauli Hamburg has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
84
Update Update
Louis Oppie from FC St. Pauli Hamburg earned a free kick on the left flank.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC St. Pauli Hamburg 1, SC Freiburg 2. Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg finds the net with a right-footed shot from close range, placing it perfectly into the bottom right corner.
78
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Cyriaque Irié from SC Freiburg takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Nikola Vasilj, the goalkeeper for FC St. Pauli Hamburg, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Yuito Suzuki.
76
Update Update
VAR Review: The goal has been disallowed. The score remains FC St. Pauli Hamburg 1, SC Freiburg 1.
74
Update Update
GOAL DISALLOWED AFTER VAR REVIEW: Cyriaque Irié from SC Freiburg finds the back of the net, but the goal is canceled following a VAR check.
74
Update Update
GOAL DISALLOWED AFTER VAR REVIEW: Cyriaque Irié from SC Freiburg finds the net, but the goal is canceled following a VAR check.
73
Update Update
Arkadiusz Pyrka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
70
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Tomoya Ando from FC St. Pauli Hamburg attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Joel Chima Fujita, who delivered a cross.
69
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Louis Oppie, who delivered a cross.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Derry Scherhant comes on to replace Vincenzo Grifo.
68
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Louis Oppie is coming on to replace Lars Ritzka.
67
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Matthias Ginter from SC Freiburg.
65
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Vincenzo Grifo of SC Freiburg attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between FC St. Pauli Hamburg and SC Freiburg. Igor Matanovic finds the net for SC Freiburg with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the left corner.
63
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Lars Ritzka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
61
Update Update
Offside call against SC Freiburg. Igor Matanovic is caught in an offside position.
58
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg earned a free kick in an offensive position.
58
Update Update
Joel Chima Fujita from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
56
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Yuito Suzuki from SC Freiburg attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
55
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Vincenzo Grifo from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Nikola Vasilj of FC St. Pauli Hamburg makes a fantastic save, pushing the ball away to the top right corner. The assist came from Cyriaque Irié.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Hauke Wahl from FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sails over the goal.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to SC Freiburg after Nikola Vasilj allowed the ball to go out.
52
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play underway. Igor Matanovic from SC Freiburg takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Nikola Vasilj of FC St. Pauli Hamburg makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top right corner.
51
Update Update
Danel Sinani commits a foul against FC St. Pauli in Hamburg.
51
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
49
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
49
Update Update
Jackson Irvine committed a foul against FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
48
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it over the bar. The cross was delivered by Jordy Makengo.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with FC St. Pauli leading SC Freiburg 1-0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with FC St. Pauli Hamburg leading SC Freiburg 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Cyriaque Irié comes on to replace Niklas Beste.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for SC Freiburg: Philipp Lienhart comes on to replace Bruno Ogbus.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert. The chance was set up by Vincenzo Grifo, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
44
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to SC Freiburg after Eric Smith allowed the ball to go out of play.
44
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Yuito Suzuki of SC Freiburg fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully defended.
42
Update Update
Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Maximilian Eggestein from SC Freiburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Johan Manzambi of SC Freiburg attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Matthias Ginter, who delivered a precise cross.
38
Update Update
Offside call against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Lars Ritzka has been flagged for being in an offside position.
37
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Hauke Wahl from FC St. Pauli Hamburg attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Arkadiusz Pyrka.
32
Update Update
Philipp Treu from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Philipp Treu from SC Freiburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC St. Pauli Hamburg after Bruno Ogbus allowed the ball to go out.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Tomoya Ando from FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
29
Update Update
Niklas Beste from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
28
Update Update
Mathias Pereira Lage of FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Johan Manzambi from SC Freiburg has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Update Update
Offside call against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Danel Sinani has been flagged for being offside.
25
Update Update
Maximilian Eggestein from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli Hamburg was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Corner Corner
Goal! FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against SC Freiburg. Danel Sinani finds the net with a left-footed shot from close range into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Tomoya Ando following a corner kick.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against SC Freiburg. Danel Sinani scores with a left-footed shot from close range into the bottom right corner, assisted by Tomoya Ando following a corner kick.
23
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC St. Pauli Hamburg after Jordy Makengo allowed the ball to go out of play.
21
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Mathias Rasmussen from FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
18
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Joel Chima Fujita from FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but the attempt is successfully stopped.
18
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from SC Freiburg! Vincenzo Grifo takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Nikola Vasilj from FC St. Pauli Hamburg makes a great save, diving to his left. The assist came from Yuito Suzuki.
14
Update Update
Offside call against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Danel Sinani has been flagged for being in an offside position.
14
Update Update
Yuito Suzuki from SC Freiburg was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomoya Ando of FC St. Pauli Hamburg has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
10
Update Update
Offside call against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Danel Sinani has been flagged for being offside.
8
Update Update
Philipp Treu from SC Freiburg committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Jackson Irvine from FC St. Pauli Hamburg has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
6
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Mathias Rasmussen from FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a right-footed shot from the heart of the box, but it's expertly stopped by goalkeeper Noah Atubolu of SC Freiburg, who is positioned centrally in the goal.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC St. Pauli Hamburg after Vincenzo Grifo allowed the ball to go out.
3
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Niklas Beste from SC Freiburg took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Yuito Suzuki.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: SC Freiburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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