St. Pauli vs FC Bayern München Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Sat, 11 Apr - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAU
0 Winner 5
FC Bayern München FCB
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Jamal Musiala - 9'
Leon Goretzka - 53'
Michael Olise - 54'
Nicolas Jackson - 65'
Raphaël Guerreiro - 88'

CONTEXT

The match between St. Pauli and FC Bayern München is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-5 to the visitors. FC Bayern München produced a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in their favor, turning a projected victory into a comprehensive rout that exceeded the anticipated outcome by a wide margin. Bayern controlled the contest throughout, holding 77 percent possession compared to St. Pauli’s 23 percent. The visitors led 1-0 at half-time and added four unanswered goals after the break. No red cards were issued to either side, allowing the game to flow without major disruptions from disciplinary events. The result stayed in line with efficiency expectations and proved consistent with the pre-match projection that identified Bayern as the stronger team. Their dominant display reflected clear superiority, delivering a decisive win that aligned fully with the anticipated direction of the match even if the exact margin surpassed forecasts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Bayern München showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Koslowski
L. Koslowski
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
M. Burda
M. Burda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
M. Borsch
M. Borsch
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
T. Stieler
T. Stieler
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.19
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.08
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
0.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: W
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: W
Borussia Dortmund Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
12.3%
Draw
19.55%
Away FC Bayern München
68.15%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Pauli
+11.65%
Draw
+17.64%
FC Bayern München
-29.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.62
49.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
FC Bayern München
Power Score
20.62
49.17
League Position
16
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli FC Bayern München

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Bayern München

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Bayern München
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.13
31.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.30
29.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Pauli -0.21 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Bayern München +0.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
FC Bayern München
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Pauli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Bayern München
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Pauli FC Bayern München
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Pauli FC Bayern München
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Pauli
FC Bayern München
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Pauli
vs
FC Bayern München
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Pauli FC Bayern München
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Pauli 0.43
FC Bayern München 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Pauli FC Bayern München
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Pauli 0.06
FC Bayern München 0.00
St. Pauli
FC Bayern München
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCB had peak pressure around 96'.
  • PAU started the game with stronger pressure.
PAU Pressure FCB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCB reached the top pressure at 96' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Pauli PAU Home
5 matches
FC Bayern München FCB Away
Match Record
0
Wins
5
0
Draws
0
5
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
4
-14
Goal Difference
+14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
K. Mets
Estonia
3 K. Mets
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
M. Rasmussen
Norway
20 M. Rasmussen
J. Fujita
Substitution
Japan
16 J. Fujita
L. Ritzka
Substitution
Germany
21 L. Ritzka
D. Sinani
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
M. Pereira Lage
Substitution
Portugal
28 M. Pereira Lage
A. Hountondji
Substitution
France
27 A. Hountondji
M. Neuer
Germany
1 M. Neuer
T. Bischof
Germany
20 T. Bischof
H. Ito
Substitution
Japan
21 H. Ito
M. Kim
South Korea
3 M. Kim
K. Laimer
Substitution
Austria
27 K. Laimer
L. Goretzka
Germany
8 L. Goretzka
J. Kimmich
Substitution
Germany
6 J. Kimmich
J. Musiala
Substitution
Germany
10 J. Musiala
R. Guerreiro
Portugal
22 R. Guerreiro
M. Olise
Substitution
France
17 M. Olise
N. Jackson
Senegal
11 N. Jackson

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity
29546
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lasse Koslowski
Max Burda
Mark Borsch
Tobias Stieler

Statistics

Possession
PAU
25%
FCB
75%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 5
0 Big Chances Created 8
2 Shots 4
14 Dangerous attacks 82
23 Possession 77
3 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 15
4 Successful Headers 7
7 Goal Kicks 6
0 Assists 4
12 Dribble Attempts 20
0 Hit Woodwork 2
11 Throwins 20
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
5 Goal Attempts 12
79 Ball Safe 114
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

46 Attacks 186
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 92
201 Successful Passes 871
22 Successful Long Passes Percentage 65
10 Successful Long Passes 33
273 Passes 944
46 Long Passes 51
6 Key Passes 17

Defensive

3 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 6
19 Tackles 12

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 8
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

9 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Tobias Stieler

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe
Midfielder66'
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Midfielder
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie
Defender77'
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Attacker
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars
Attacker77'
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
Mathias Pereira Lage Attacker
18
Taichi Hara
Taichi Hara
Attacker88'
Referee : Tobias Stieler

Starting XI ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
3
Min-jae Kim
Min-jae Kim Defender
20
Tom Bischof
Tom Bischof Defender
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah
Defender67'
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic
Defender58'
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies
Defender59'
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
39
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
Attacker84'
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Midfielder
14
Luis Díaz
Luis Díaz
Attacker59'
22
Raphaël Guerreiro
Raphaël Guerreiro Midfielder
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Leon Goretzka
Goal disallowed
Event
Taichi Hara → Mathias Pereira Lage
9th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Raphaël Guerreiro
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
84'
Event
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye → Jamal Musiala
8th Substitution
Event
Louis Oppie → Lars Ritzka
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Martijn Kaars → Andréas Hountondji
6th Substitution
77'
67'
Event
Jonathan Tah → Hiroki Ito
5th Substitution
Event
Connor Metcalfe → Joel Chima Fujita
4th Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Nicolas Jackson
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
59'
Event
Alphonso Davies → Joshua Kimmich
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Luis Díaz → Michael Olise
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Josip Stanisic → Konrad Laimer
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Michael Olise
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
53'
Event
Leon Goretzka
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Joel Chima Fujita
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
52'
Event
Michael Olise
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
19'
Event
Konrad Laimer
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'
Event
Jamal Musiala
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München wins a corner after Nikola Vasilj concedes.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Louis Oppie of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
90
Update Update
VAR decision: No goal. The match ends with FC St. Pauli losing 0-5 to FC Bayern München.
90
Update Update
Goal! FC Bayern München scores, making it 6-0 against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Leon Goretzka heads the ball in from a few meters out.
90
Corner Corner
Nicolas Jackson of FC Bayern München attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but Nikola Vasilj of FC St. Pauli Hamburg makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Tom Bischof.
90
Update Update
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye of FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with FC St. Pauli Hamburg losing 0-5 to FC Bayern München.
90
Update Update
Goal overturned by VAR! Leon Goretzka scores for FC Bayern München, but the goal is disallowed following a VAR review.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Taichi Hara replaces Mathias Pereira Lage.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München leads 5-0 after Raphaël Guerreiro scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
86
Update Update
Connor Metcalfe fouled a player from FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
86
Update Update
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye of FC Bayern München won a free kick in an attacking position.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Bara Sapoko Ndiaye replaces Jamal Musiala.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Jamal Musiala of FC Bayern München.
83
Update Update
Mathias Rasmussen of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
80
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Connor Metcalfe from FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Luis Díaz's shot for FC Bayern München from the right side of the box is blocked. Raphaël Guerreiro provided the assist.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Martijn Kaars replaces Andréas Hountondji.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Louis Oppie replaces Lars Ritzka.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Hauke Wahl concedes.
71
Update Update
Fouled by Mathias Rasmussen of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
71
Update Update
Alphonso Davies of FC Bayern München won a free kick on the left wing.
70
Update Update
Arkadiusz Pyrka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick on the right wing.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Luis Díaz for FC Bayern München.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Jonathan Tah replaces Hiroki Ito due to injury.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Jonathan Tah replaces Hiroki Ito due to injury.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München leads 4-0 against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Nicolas Jackson scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Jamal Musiala.
65
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Josip Stanisic.
62
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München wins a corner, conceded by Hauke Wahl.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Bayern München after Hauke Wahl concedes.
61
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson from FC Bayern München misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, sending the ball high. Luis Díaz provided the assist.
59
Update Update
Danel Sinani of FC St. Pauli Hamburg is called offside.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Luis Díaz replaces Michael Olise.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Bayern München: Alphonso Davies replaces Joshua Kimmich.
58
Update Update
Arkadiusz Pyrka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Nicolas Jackson - FC Bayern München.
58
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Tom Bischof concedes.
56
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Pyrka's shot for FC St. Pauli Hamburg from the right side of the box is blocked. Joel Chima Fujita provided the assist.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München leads 3-0 after Michael Olise scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München leads 2-0 after Leon Goretzka scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joel Chima Fujita of FC St. Pauli Hamburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
52
Update Update
Joel Chima Fujita from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München receives a yellow card.
52
Update Update
Michael Olise from FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
51
Update Update
Lars Ritzka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg commits a foul.
51
Update Update
Michael Olise from FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
48
Corner Corner
FC Bayern München win a corner after Hauke Wahl concedes.
47
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg shoots with his left foot from the right side of the box, but the shot is saved.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with FC St. Pauli Hamburg 0, FC Bayern München 1.
45
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Tom Bischof concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at FC St. Pauli Hamburg 0, FC Bayern München 1.
43
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
43
Update Update
Jamal Musiala of FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
43
Update Update
Konrad Laimer from FC Bayern München misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left.
43
Update Update
Lars Ritzka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Raphaël Guerreiro.
40
Update Update
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
40
Update Update
Lars Ritzka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Tomoya Ando from FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Tom Bischof from FC Bayern München committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Bischof of FC Bayern München.
30
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Tomoya Ando - FC St. Pauli Hamburg - shot with the head from the centre of the box is saved in the top centre of the goal by Manuel Neuer - FC Bayern München Assist - Lars Ritzka with a cross.
29
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Pereira Lage's right-footed shot from the center of the box for FC St. Pauli Hamburg is blocked.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC St. Pauli Hamburg after Kim Min-Jae concedes.
27
Attempt Attempt
Andréas Hountondji's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Mathias Pereira Lage, who provided a cross.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Leon Goretzka of FC Bayern München.
26
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München hits the right post with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Raphaël Guerreiro.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Joel Chima Fujita of FC St. Pauli Hamburg shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high and wide to the right. Mathias Rasmussen provided the assist.
25
Update Update
Mathias Rasmussen of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
25
Update Update
Fouled by Hiroki Ito of FC Bayern München.
25
Update Update
Danel Sinani of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München receives a yellow card for a foul.
19
Update Update
Konrad Laimer of FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
19
Update Update
Lars Ritzka of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
18
Update Update
Andréas Hountondji from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Kim Min-Jae of FC Bayern München won a free kick in defense.
17
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson from FC Bayern München attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but the shot is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Michael Olise from FC Bayern München shot with his right foot from the center of the box but missed to the left. The assist was by Jamal Musiala.
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Leon Goretzka of FC Bayern München had a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side.
15
Update Update
Michael Olise from FC Bayern München won a free kick on the right wing.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Joel Chima Fujita of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
11
Update Update
Offside called against FC Bayern München. Michael Olise is offside.
11
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Kim Min-Jae.
9
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson's shot from outside the box is blocked. Joshua Kimmich provided the assist.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München takes the lead 1-0 against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Jamal Musiala scores with a header from close range, assisted by Konrad Laimer.
4
Update Update
Offside called against FC Bayern München. Michael Olise is in an offside position.
4
Update Update
Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg is flagged for offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Bayern München exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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